Projected Headline- Spectrum Pharma Beats on Q1 Revenue (again)! Ok, that the headline I visualize when Spectrum has their Quarterly meeting next Tuesday. I see top line revenue coming in at around $38.2M, the Analyst average estimate is $32.23M. That’s a Beat of $6.0M!
Here’s my numbers Evomela at $12.4M (up from 9.4M), Marqibo at 2.1M (down from 2.3M), Folotyn at 11.0M (up from 10.7M), Beleodaq at 3.2M (up from 3.0M), Fusilev at 3.9M (down from 4.3M), and Zevalin at 2.5M (same as previous), and licensing at 3.1M (same as previous).
And here’s some thoughts behind these #s: Regarding Evomela, I actually calculated 13.5M in post 1635. This estimate depended on what I guesstimated was going on in the previous Qtr regarding actual demand (@ 7m) and stocking of drug (@2.4M). I can see these assumptions being the same (or maybe higher!) for this Qtr but until I actually see it I’m dialing down sales to 12.4M. Fusilev sales just keeps going down. Back in the day, if there was a shortage of leucovorin, which currently there is, you would expect Fusilev sales to rise but now with generic Fusilev (Levoleucovorin) that means diddly squat. I was a little shocked by the revenue we got last Q for the PTCL franchise. Last year, Folotyn and Beleodaq were slowly going up a little every Qtr and got to over 15M (heck, Folotyn by itself was at 15.2M a year ago) and I would have thunk that they would continually edge up but for the last couple of qtrs I didn’t see that happening. And Marqibo seems to go up a couple of 100 thousand and then down by the same amount so I picking it a little down this Qtr. Of course, Zevalin never goes up more than the previous qtr so I see it as a win if it stays at the same revenue level as the previous Qtr. J&J came out w lower revenue (~3% lower) last week and it was attributed to lower prices in government managed care channels. I think that is happening to most of pharma and happening here too. But who knows, it would be nice to get some positive surprises like Evomela to 13.5M and the PTCL franchise up to +16M and we’d be closing in on $40M in total revenue but I’m not expecting that based on the J&J feedback. I think my $38.2M is 'Goldilocks like', not to hot and not too cold and that gets us a 8.2% revenue increase. Heck, that much better than J&Js 3% decrease. I’ll take it!
