Sunday, April 23, 2017 6:50:47 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/21 2017 EOD
I tried, I really did. We had an up day and the signs are that the warrant holders I thought had been hanging around were absent. But then I remembered it was Friday and figured they had no reason to be here on a Friday. <*sigh*>
Conventional TA is offering signs that conflict both with itself and with my unconventional stuff. As before, I'll go with my stuff.
Most likely seems to be continued weakening. There's a possibility of short-term short-term consolidation instead, with a mild weakening bias I think. Trading range is "pushing" the experimental Bollinger lower limit, not a good scenario, and price range is now only a couple pennies above the minimal chart's rising medium-term support (rising orange line). If the warrant holders I believe were here don't stay away, or get some support from whomever they work with, I think we'll certainly go down to challenge that rising support and it's likely to fail to hold if warrant holders I believe have been here are present at the time it's challenged. Currently that line is ~$0.72.
Intra-day was typically ugly - open high, go higher (in the first 15 minutes), do along drop, all on extremely low volume of course, to the day's low by ~11:15, recover roughly half the loss before giving back some of the gain as part of beginning a long sideways flattish period through ~15:50 and then get the manipulated, IMO, push up into the close just about 1/2 penny below the day's high.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 500:500 $0.7582/$0.8399.
09:30-10:25 opened the day with a [bFAILURE as there was only a 7-share odd-lot sell $0.7601, not allowed to be an official anything but a trade - not OLHC. B/a just after open was 7.1K:10 $0.76/7 (offers backed by presented 303 $0.78). Then came 9:32's 1.1K $0.76 (the official opening price), 9:34's b/a 5.9K:10 $0.76/7 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.79), 9:43's 8.6K $0.7690/82/90/00/90/97/87/00, 9:44's 100 $0.76, 9:50's b/a 4.6K:1.1K $0.76/$0.7799, 9:58's b/a 1K:8.4K $0.7700/98, 10:03's 220 $0.7791/79, 10:08's 100 $0.77, 1.1K $0.77/$0.7680 (100), 10:12's 700 $0.7661/0, 10:16's 4.9K $0.7660, 10:19's b/a 2.7K:4.6K $0.7660/$0.7733, 10:20's 100 $0.7660, 10:24's 400 $0.7660, and the period ended on 10:25's 3K $0.7660/00 (700).
10:26-10:53 began extremely low/no-volume flat $0.7600/1 on 10:26's 100 $0.76, with high moving to $0.7645 at 10:50. B/a at 10:33 was 4.2K:1.1K $0.7600/95, 10:47 9.2K:4.5k $0.7600/89, 10:51 9.1K:6.8K $0.7600/84 (offers falling). The period ended on 10:53's 1K $0.7601.
10:54-11:14 began an extremely low/no-volume (but for the last two minutes) fall, from an initial range of $0.7505/38, on 10:57's 11.8K $0.76/$0.7515/14/12/14/12/11 and 10:58's 800 $0.7510. B/a at 11:02 was 100:2K $0.7505/89 (offers falling). The period ended on 11:13-:14's drop on 50K, doing $0.7505/2/1/0 (~33K)/$0.7450/60 and $0.7445/30/44 (5K)/30/44 (2K)/21.
11:15-12:11 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7420/77, with rising lows and more slowly falling highs, on 11:20's 500 $0.7477. B/a at 11:23 was 5.1K:3.5K $0.7420/77 (offers falling). Price and volume was interrupted by 11:26's 1.5K $0.7523 (1.2K)/$0.7421/$0.7590 (100). B/a at 11:28 was 3.1K:300 $0.7420/$0.7590. Pecking the offer with 100-share trades at 2 and 3-minute (alternating) intervals began at 11:28for about 15 minutes. B/a at 11:32 was 3.1K:300 $0.7420/$0.7590, 11:47 5.6K:200 $0.7450/$0.7590, 12:01 3K:6K $0.7500/89. At 12:03 the pecking returned and highs began moving up, eventually dragging the bid up. The period ended on 12:11's 130 $0.758.
12:12-14:44, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.75/$0.7698 (high quickly dropped to $0.76), with falling highs, on 12:15's 4.8K $0.7584/86/89/01/00/$0.7600/01/00/96/00. B/a at 12:37 was 4.3K:5.6K $0.7500/91, 12:47 4.3K:3.9K $0.7500/73, 13:02 3.9K:3.8K $0.7500/73 (offers falling), 13:17 2.9K:4.5K $0.7500/74 (offers falling), 13:31 700:4.3K $0.7500/84, 13:47 2K:5.8K $0.7500/96 (offers falling), 14:02 1.9K:4.9K $0.7500/93, 14:18 2K:4.6K $0.7500/85, 14:33 3K:1K $0.7500/86. The period ended on 14:44's 386 $0.7545.
14:45-15:50, after three no-trades minutes, began with a few minutes of medium/high-volume $0.7500/99, through 15:02, on 14:48's 3.3K $0.7543/84/85/00/01/44/00/88/45/00/45. B/a at 14:47 was 2.9K:900 $0.7500/87 (offers dropping), 15:02 2.1K:2.1K $0.7590/7. At 15:11 trade became extremely low/no-volume $0.7550/92 and at 15:16 the lows began rising. I guess this is the now-common walking the bids up on low volume to move price up eventually?. B/a at 15:17 was 5K:1.2K $0.7501/92, 15:33 1.3K:618 $0.7500/97, 15:47 700:100 $0.7550/92. And right on time, the period ends on 15:50's 700 $0.758/$0.76 to start toward a positive, barely I bet, close.
15:51-16:00, after one no-trades minutes, began ... on 15:52's 3.2K $0.7578/75/80/$0.7600/$0.7580/50/75/80/51 and 15:53's 1.5K $0.7650/25/50. B/a at 15:56 was 637:1.3K $0.7550/$0.7699 (that was a big, and now common, move in the offers). The period and day ended on 15:59's 500 $0.7572/$0.7650/$0.7572 and 16:00's 300 buy for $0.7744, only slightly more than half a penny below the day's high and giving us a +1.89% close on the day!
Well done lads and lassies!
There were two AH sells: 16:57 500 $0.78; 17:43 200 $0.78. Because the close was $0.7744 & the day's official high was $0.7797, these don't tickle my manipumeter. OTOH, maybe they ought to because of that 15:51-16:00 action detailed above? Stupid TFH - always causing trouble by questioning blind acceptance of what appears to be.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 41,783, 23.33% of day's volume, with a $0.7524 VWAP. The count and percentage of day's trade volume both seem normal for the day's trade volume. The VWAP is below the day's $0.7551 VWAP. This is beginning to look much more normal and offers hope that most warrant holders I thought might be playing in the market were out today. A "Friday effect"? We'll never know but I look forward to seeing what happens next week.
Note below there is only one "larger larger trade" and the distribution of the larger trades is more consistent with older behavior, lacking the high number of "larger larger trades" and not having a fairly even distribution as was seen the last couple of days.
In aggregate this looks like some fairly astute folks were involved in these larger trades - probably more than just a couple MMs and shorters but I suspect they account for the most today as the first "clump" saw a drop in the buy percentage, suggesting folks sitting patiently on the bid knowing price will come to them and knowing someone - maybe retailers, short-term traders, other MMs - will feed them the shares covering their shorts.
It's a shame VWAP couldn't recover more, but that's the nature of a market controlled by MMs who need only to play the spread and not the specific prices as they maintain a market-neutral (and usually 0 shares for any period longer than today) portfolio and make their money playing that spread and collecting fees from the exchanges for "providing liquidity".
BTW, like yesterday regarding the warrant holders, I could be all wrong but I think I'm not.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is that our high was right at the descending medium-term resistance (descending red line, briefly former support) and our low began "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's lower limit. We know this a cautionary sign as most often when the band looks similar to how it does now we end up moving lower.
The high and close were just below the mid-point, $0.7883. All of the day's trading was below that mid-point.
As mentioned above, I think most warrant holders were not in the market today and we managed to squeeze out a green candle, with both close higher than the low and close higher than yesterday's. All this could be a side-effect of it being Friday though. But it wasn't a particularly flat day so I suspect it being Friday only affected the presence of the warrant holders and the volume.
I had mentioned yesterday that I've begun to doubt if the medium-term rising potential support (rising orange line) would hold if the warrant holders were still in the market when price went down to challenge that line. Our low is only, AFAICT, only $0.022 above that line now.
Another factor has become that we are now trading under the medium-term descending resistance (descending red line) and that could be either applying downward pressure when the support is challenged or thwart attempts to pull up and away from the rising support. The longer we are constrained between the two the more opportunity to break below the support.
The fast EMA is below the slow EMA and $0.0062 (was $0.011) below it, thanks to today's green candle. The EMA improvement won't hold though unless we can get at least a short string of improvements.
We really need to see the warrant holders, along with whomever they might be coordinating, push the price back up so they can make their money. Of course that will be only a short-term aid to those that wish to do short-term trading. Generally not me, although I do occasionally do a small-block short-term play to stave off boredom, make a little hamburger money, etc.
On my one-year chart, yesterday I noted { it looks like we are below the long-term descending support, but it's still difficult to be certain. } I've fixed the uncertainty by switching to a chart with better capabilities and can now say with certainty that we have been, on a closing basis, below that long-term descending resistance for three consecutive days now and penetrated above only on the first day, 4/19.
Our high today was right at the declining 20-day SMA.
The 50-day SMA continued rising while the 10 and 20-day SMAs continued to decline today. These three are still in order though with the 10 > 20 > 50.
If we hold here the 10-day will rise 1 day (was decline 9) and decline 6 days, rise and decline 1 day each. The 20-day will rise 3 days (was decline 1), go flat 2 days (was 2), rise 4 days (was decline 15), flip-flop 2 days, and then decline 6 days. The 50-day will rise 4 days (was 4) and decline 3 days (was 7) as it continues the up/down waves predicted previously.
The 200-day SMA continues to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution (appx. 7% decline) and every other oscillator except momentum, which strengthened. Everyone except MFI (untrusted by me) was below neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic were deep into oversold condition.
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (exited oversold), and full stochastic (still in oversold). Weakening occurred in NFI (untrusted by me), momentum and (tellingly IMO) ADX-related. Everything but MFI is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7453 and $0.8313 ($0.7432 and $0.8316 yesterday), stopped the divergence begun two day ago and are now converging, albeit quite slowly. The mid-point is now rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit falls. A mentioned above, trade range is now "pushing" the lower limit.
All in, a purely conventional TA look at this stuff would suggest we might be bottoming and preparing to make a turn to try the various resistances above our trade range. The falling volume on an up day suggests no upward momentum yet developing though, so any reversal with building strength is likely at least a couple days away. Most likely for the moment would be a very short-term consolidation as we attempt to finish a short-term bottoming process.
Countering that - again purely conventional TA - is that we can envision, on the minimal chart, a descending support and resistance defined by the extremes of price in this leg down. This makes a steep descending "channel". In order to bottom and reverse we need to break above, or move sideways out of, the envisioned descending channel and get confirmation the next day.
Then there's my unconventional stuff.
Intra-day was typical ugly - see description at the top of the post.
Not a sign of strength!
Add in the stuff from the intra-day breakdown and the declining volume on this ersatz "up day".
As you might have surmised by now, I'm not near ready to buy into the potential bottoming and reversal scenario just yet!
The clincher, for me, is one day of apparent absence, on a Friday no less, of the warrant holders I think have been frequenting our market for a few days prior is not enough to make me think they are gone and I wait to see if that's the case or if they return quickly.
Then I can feel more comfortable with trying to make a good assessment.
Until then, I remain believing that the leg down is still intact and that we are likely to go challenge the minimal chart's rising medium-term support, ~$0.72.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a sign of normalcy (amazing what can happen sans the warrant holders). The short percentage is at the upper end of my desired range (needs re-check) and I think is "showing true" today as we had a more normal percentage of larger trades and many fewer "larger larger trades" to mask the true short activity or the MMs and/or shorters (BTW, any frequent short-term traders too as they may be trading shares which haven't settled in their accounts yet, requiring flagging as short. I'm unsure if I had ever mentioned that).
Unfortunately, the normalcy suggested by the directional correlation of these two percentages also extends to the buy percentage reading as these sorts of abysmal readings have become normal for this symbol.
The spread opened up, due to the intra-day behavior described above, and suggests more near-term movement is likely. Conventional TA would suggest a possibility of upward while my intra-day observations and intra-day breakdown suggests that is not likely at this time.
It's worth noting, I think, that the VWAP was down today, even though the conventional TA says it was an up day. It's been down 7 out of nine days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements deteriorated for the second consecutive day, going to 13 negatives and 11 positives from 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 03/17 is -$0.0124, -1.61%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.0279%, 0.1106%, 0.3283%, 0.2923%, 0.5141%, 0.4794%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%.
All in, I interpret this stuff as suggesting near-term weakness as most likely, with a possible short-term consolidation with a weakening bias.
Bill
I tried, I really did. We had an up day and the signs are that the warrant holders I thought had been hanging around were absent. But then I remembered it was Friday and figured they had no reason to be here on a Friday. <*sigh*>
Conventional TA is offering signs that conflict both with itself and with my unconventional stuff. As before, I'll go with my stuff.
Most likely seems to be continued weakening. There's a possibility of short-term short-term consolidation instead, with a mild weakening bias I think. Trading range is "pushing" the experimental Bollinger lower limit, not a good scenario, and price range is now only a couple pennies above the minimal chart's rising medium-term support (rising orange line). If the warrant holders I believe were here don't stay away, or get some support from whomever they work with, I think we'll certainly go down to challenge that rising support and it's likely to fail to hold if warrant holders I believe have been here are present at the time it's challenged. Currently that line is ~$0.72.
Intra-day was typically ugly - open high, go higher (in the first 15 minutes), do along drop, all on extremely low volume of course, to the day's low by ~11:15, recover roughly half the loss before giving back some of the gain as part of beginning a long sideways flattish period through ~15:50 and then get the manipulated, IMO, push up into the close just about 1/2 penny below the day's high.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 500:500 $0.7582/$0.8399.
09:30-10:25 opened the day with a [bFAILURE as there was only a 7-share odd-lot sell $0.7601, not allowed to be an official anything but a trade - not OLHC. B/a just after open was 7.1K:10 $0.76/7 (offers backed by presented 303 $0.78). Then came 9:32's 1.1K $0.76 (the official opening price), 9:34's b/a 5.9K:10 $0.76/7 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.79), 9:43's 8.6K $0.7690/82/90/00/90/97/87/00, 9:44's 100 $0.76, 9:50's b/a 4.6K:1.1K $0.76/$0.7799, 9:58's b/a 1K:8.4K $0.7700/98, 10:03's 220 $0.7791/79, 10:08's 100 $0.77, 1.1K $0.77/$0.7680 (100), 10:12's 700 $0.7661/0, 10:16's 4.9K $0.7660, 10:19's b/a 2.7K:4.6K $0.7660/$0.7733, 10:20's 100 $0.7660, 10:24's 400 $0.7660, and the period ended on 10:25's 3K $0.7660/00 (700).
10:26-10:53 began extremely low/no-volume flat $0.7600/1 on 10:26's 100 $0.76, with high moving to $0.7645 at 10:50. B/a at 10:33 was 4.2K:1.1K $0.7600/95, 10:47 9.2K:4.5k $0.7600/89, 10:51 9.1K:6.8K $0.7600/84 (offers falling). The period ended on 10:53's 1K $0.7601.
10:54-11:14 began an extremely low/no-volume (but for the last two minutes) fall, from an initial range of $0.7505/38, on 10:57's 11.8K $0.76/$0.7515/14/12/14/12/11 and 10:58's 800 $0.7510. B/a at 11:02 was 100:2K $0.7505/89 (offers falling). The period ended on 11:13-:14's drop on 50K, doing $0.7505/2/1/0 (~33K)/$0.7450/60 and $0.7445/30/44 (5K)/30/44 (2K)/21.
11:15-12:11 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7420/77, with rising lows and more slowly falling highs, on 11:20's 500 $0.7477. B/a at 11:23 was 5.1K:3.5K $0.7420/77 (offers falling). Price and volume was interrupted by 11:26's 1.5K $0.7523 (1.2K)/$0.7421/$0.7590 (100). B/a at 11:28 was 3.1K:300 $0.7420/$0.7590. Pecking the offer with 100-share trades at 2 and 3-minute (alternating) intervals began at 11:28for about 15 minutes. B/a at 11:32 was 3.1K:300 $0.7420/$0.7590, 11:47 5.6K:200 $0.7450/$0.7590, 12:01 3K:6K $0.7500/89. At 12:03 the pecking returned and highs began moving up, eventually dragging the bid up. The period ended on 12:11's 130 $0.758.
12:12-14:44, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.75/$0.7698 (high quickly dropped to $0.76), with falling highs, on 12:15's 4.8K $0.7584/86/89/01/00/$0.7600/01/00/96/00. B/a at 12:37 was 4.3K:5.6K $0.7500/91, 12:47 4.3K:3.9K $0.7500/73, 13:02 3.9K:3.8K $0.7500/73 (offers falling), 13:17 2.9K:4.5K $0.7500/74 (offers falling), 13:31 700:4.3K $0.7500/84, 13:47 2K:5.8K $0.7500/96 (offers falling), 14:02 1.9K:4.9K $0.7500/93, 14:18 2K:4.6K $0.7500/85, 14:33 3K:1K $0.7500/86. The period ended on 14:44's 386 $0.7545.
14:45-15:50, after three no-trades minutes, began with a few minutes of medium/high-volume $0.7500/99, through 15:02, on 14:48's 3.3K $0.7543/84/85/00/01/44/00/88/45/00/45. B/a at 14:47 was 2.9K:900 $0.7500/87 (offers dropping), 15:02 2.1K:2.1K $0.7590/7. At 15:11 trade became extremely low/no-volume $0.7550/92 and at 15:16 the lows began rising. I guess this is the now-common walking the bids up on low volume to move price up eventually?. B/a at 15:17 was 5K:1.2K $0.7501/92, 15:33 1.3K:618 $0.7500/97, 15:47 700:100 $0.7550/92. And right on time, the period ends on 15:50's 700 $0.758/$0.76 to start toward a positive, barely I bet, close.
15:51-16:00, after one no-trades minutes, began ... on 15:52's 3.2K $0.7578/75/80/$0.7600/$0.7580/50/75/80/51 and 15:53's 1.5K $0.7650/25/50. B/a at 15:56 was 637:1.3K $0.7550/$0.7699 (that was a big, and now common, move in the offers). The period and day ended on 15:59's 500 $0.7572/$0.7650/$0.7572 and 16:00's 300 buy for $0.7744, only slightly more than half a penny below the day's high and giving us a +1.89% close on the day!
Well done lads and lassies!
There were two AH sells: 16:57 500 $0.78; 17:43 200 $0.78. Because the close was $0.7744 & the day's official high was $0.7797, these don't tickle my manipumeter. OTOH, maybe they ought to because of that 15:51-16:00 action detailed above? Stupid TFH - always causing trouble by questioning blind acceptance of what appears to be.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 41,783, 23.33% of day's volume, with a $0.7524 VWAP. The count and percentage of day's trade volume both seem normal for the day's trade volume. The VWAP is below the day's $0.7551 VWAP. This is beginning to look much more normal and offers hope that most warrant holders I thought might be playing in the market were out today. A "Friday effect"? We'll never know but I look forward to seeing what happens next week.
Note below there is only one "larger larger trade" and the distribution of the larger trades is more consistent with older behavior, lacking the high number of "larger larger trades" and not having a fairly even distribution as was seen the last couple of days.
In aggregate this looks like some fairly astute folks were involved in these larger trades - probably more than just a couple MMs and shorters but I suspect they account for the most today as the first "clump" saw a drop in the buy percentage, suggesting folks sitting patiently on the bid knowing price will come to them and knowing someone - maybe retailers, short-term traders, other MMs - will feed them the shares covering their shorts.
Note the correlation between VWAP and buy percentage was normal today, another sign I think that most warrant holders I had suspected were absent today. Considering the early buy percentage and volume (61% of days volume through 11:14), the buy percentage made a reasonable recovery. The ending value still sucks, but to see some decent recovery during the day again suggests most warrant holders weren't present.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:25 20035 $0.7600 $0.7797 $15,378.98 $0.7676 11.19% 21.48%
10:53 2050 $0.7600 $0.7645 $1,559.46 $0.7607 1.14% 20.39%
11:14 64567 $0.7421 $0.7600 $48,449.15 $0.7504 36.05% 19.83% Incl 10:57 $0.7600 4,083 5,000
11:13 $0.7500 5,000 8,000 10,000
11:14 $0.7444 5,000
12:11 9832 $0.7420 $0.7590 $7,335.49 $0.7461 5.49% 20.80%
14:44 26751 $0.7500 $0.7698 $20,186.11 $0.7546 14.94% 22.30%
15:50 43917 $0.7500 $0.7600 $33,252.14 $0.7572 24.52% 32.43% Incl 14:55 $0.7582 4,700
16:00 9400 $0.7550 $0.7744 $7,133.83 $0.7589 5.25% 32.95%
17:43 700 $0.7800 $0.7800 $546.00 $0.7800 0.39% 32.82%
It's a shame VWAP couldn't recover more, but that's the nature of a market controlled by MMs who need only to play the spread and not the specific prices as they maintain a market-neutral (and usually 0 shares for any period longer than today) portfolio and make their money playing that spread and collecting fees from the exchanges for "providing liquidity".
BTW, like yesterday regarding the warrant holders, I could be all wrong but I think I'm not.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Warrant holders regardless, the higher high and close (see "well done ..." above) is belied by the reducing volume, which may be a "Friday effect". The reducing volume says there is no strength (yet?) in the seeming upward bias signified by those two higher readings. The lower open and low are more likely truthful but the volume also puts the lie to them. The reason I think they are more truthful is because "the trend is your friend" and we know we've been in a down leg with only a hiccup interrupting it. Sans some sustained movement of other items toward a more bullish posture I've got to believe the trend for now.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.30% -1.72% 0.61% 1.89% -55.44%
Prior -2.53% -1.95% -5.49% -1.81% 50.81%
On my minimal chart the most significant thing is that our high was right at the descending medium-term resistance (descending red line, briefly former support) and our low began "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's lower limit. We know this a cautionary sign as most often when the band looks similar to how it does now we end up moving lower.
The high and close were just below the mid-point, $0.7883. All of the day's trading was below that mid-point.
As mentioned above, I think most warrant holders were not in the market today and we managed to squeeze out a green candle, with both close higher than the low and close higher than yesterday's. All this could be a side-effect of it being Friday though. But it wasn't a particularly flat day so I suspect it being Friday only affected the presence of the warrant holders and the volume.
I had mentioned yesterday that I've begun to doubt if the medium-term rising potential support (rising orange line) would hold if the warrant holders were still in the market when price went down to challenge that line. Our low is only, AFAICT, only $0.022 above that line now.
Another factor has become that we are now trading under the medium-term descending resistance (descending red line) and that could be either applying downward pressure when the support is challenged or thwart attempts to pull up and away from the rising support. The longer we are constrained between the two the more opportunity to break below the support.
The fast EMA is below the slow EMA and $0.0062 (was $0.011) below it, thanks to today's green candle. The EMA improvement won't hold though unless we can get at least a short string of improvements.
We really need to see the warrant holders, along with whomever they might be coordinating, push the price back up so they can make their money. Of course that will be only a short-term aid to those that wish to do short-term trading. Generally not me, although I do occasionally do a small-block short-term play to stave off boredom, make a little hamburger money, etc.
On my one-year chart, yesterday I noted { it looks like we are below the long-term descending support, but it's still difficult to be certain. } I've fixed the uncertainty by switching to a chart with better capabilities and can now say with certainty that we have been, on a closing basis, below that long-term descending resistance for three consecutive days now and penetrated above only on the first day, 4/19.
Our high today was right at the declining 20-day SMA.
The 50-day SMA continued rising while the 10 and 20-day SMAs continued to decline today. These three are still in order though with the 10 > 20 > 50.
If we hold here the 10-day will rise 1 day (was decline 9) and decline 6 days, rise and decline 1 day each. The 20-day will rise 3 days (was decline 1), go flat 2 days (was 2), rise 4 days (was decline 15), flip-flop 2 days, and then decline 6 days. The 50-day will rise 4 days (was 4) and decline 3 days (was 7) as it continues the up/down waves predicted previously.
The 200-day SMA continues to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution (appx. 7% decline) and every other oscillator except momentum, which strengthened. Everyone except MFI (untrusted by me) was below neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic were deep into oversold condition.
Today had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (exited oversold), and full stochastic (still in oversold). Weakening occurred in NFI (untrusted by me), momentum and (tellingly IMO) ADX-related. Everything but MFI is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7453 and $0.8313 ($0.7432 and $0.8316 yesterday), stopped the divergence begun two day ago and are now converging, albeit quite slowly. The mid-point is now rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit falls. A mentioned above, trade range is now "pushing" the lower limit.
All in, a purely conventional TA look at this stuff would suggest we might be bottoming and preparing to make a turn to try the various resistances above our trade range. The falling volume on an up day suggests no upward momentum yet developing though, so any reversal with building strength is likely at least a couple days away. Most likely for the moment would be a very short-term consolidation as we attempt to finish a short-term bottoming process.
Countering that - again purely conventional TA - is that we can envision, on the minimal chart, a descending support and resistance defined by the extremes of price in this leg down. This makes a steep descending "channel". In order to bottom and reverse we need to break above, or move sideways out of, the envisioned descending channel and get confirmation the next day.
Then there's my unconventional stuff.
Intra-day was typical ugly - see description at the top of the post.
Not a sign of strength!
Add in the stuff from the intra-day breakdown and the declining volume on this ersatz "up day".
As you might have surmised by now, I'm not near ready to buy into the potential bottoming and reversal scenario just yet!
The clincher, for me, is one day of apparent absence, on a Friday no less, of the warrant holders I think have been frequenting our market for a few days prior is not enough to make me think they are gone and I wait to see if that's the case or if they return quickly.
Then I can feel more comfortable with trying to make a good assessment.
Until then, I remain believing that the leg down is still intact and that we are likely to go challenge the minimal chart's rising medium-term support, ~$0.72.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a sign of normalcy (amazing what can happen sans the warrant holders). The short percentage is at the upper end of my desired range (needs re-check) and I think is "showing true" today as we had a more normal percentage of larger trades and many fewer "larger larger trades" to mask the true short activity or the MMs and/or shorters (BTW, any frequent short-term traders too as they may be trading shares which haven't settled in their accounts yet, requiring flagging as short. I'm unsure if I had ever mentioned that).
Unfortunately, the normalcy suggested by the directional correlation of these two percentages also extends to the buy percentage reading as these sorts of abysmal readings have become normal for this symbol.
The spread opened up, due to the intra-day behavior described above, and suggests more near-term movement is likely. Conventional TA would suggest a possibility of upward while my intra-day observations and intra-day breakdown suggests that is not likely at this time.
It's worth noting, I think, that the VWAP was down today, even though the conventional TA says it was an up day. It's been down 7 out of nine days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements deteriorated for the second consecutive day, going to 13 negatives and 11 positives from 12 and 12 respectively. Change since 03/17 is -$0.0124, -1.61%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.0279%, 0.1106%, 0.3283%, 0.2923%, 0.5141%, 0.4794%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%.
All in, I interpret this stuff as suggesting near-term weakness as most likely, with a possible short-term consolidation with a weakening bias.
Bill
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