Friday, April 21, 2017 4:57:57 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/18 2017 EOD
Everything today suggests near-term weakness as most likely. The down leg should continue within the medium-term consolidation. We are not in short-term consolidation now I think.
Today was essentially straight down until about 13:10 before any real recovery began. It got back about half the day's drop into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:45 opened the day with a 5,737 sell for $0.8140 & $0.82 x 3, $0.8140 x 100. B/a just after open was 1.6K:5.1K $0.81/2. Then came 9:31's 7.4K $0.8150 (5.7K)/00, 9:32's 1.5K $0.8100/08/01/03/10, 9:33's 3.3K $0.8091 (2.4K)/10/00, 9:34's 8.4K $0.80, 9:35's 13.3K (incl. 11.5K blk) $0.80, 9:39's b/a 100:200 $0.7901/$0.8098, 9:41's 2K $0.7901/00/03/00, 9:42's 500 $0.7850 (400)/$0.7986, 9:43's b/a 600:700 $0.7850/$0.7997, and the period ended on 9:45's 100 $0.7852
09:46-11:03, during the initial no-trades one minute had 9:47's b/a of 200:2.1K $0.7900/86. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume sag from $0.7964/7 on 9:47's 594 $0.7985. B/a at 9:54 was 1.8K:600 $0.7850/$0.7987, 10:02 1.8K:600 $0.7850/$0.7960, 10:10 1.1K:1.1K $0.7900/59. 10:10's 857 hit $0.7939. B/a at 10:14 was 1.1K:2.2K $0.7900/58. 10:16's 200 hit $0.79. B/a at 10:17 was 1K:2.2K $0.7900/58, 10:32 800:3.7K $0.7900/56, 10:47 400:2.3K $0.7900/32, 11:01 400:1.3K $0.7900/08. The period ended on 11:03's 540 $0.79.
11:04-11:45 began a mostly very low-volume decline on 11:04's 3.2K $0.7900 (2.5K)/$0.7850/1/0. B/a at 11:12 was 500:1K $0.7850/1. 11:15's 1.1K hit $0.7801/38. B/a at 11:20 was 2.3K:1.5K $0.7800/13. Volume was interrupted by 11:26's 10.2K $0.7827 (8.7K)/00. B/a at 11:32 was 500:20 $0.7800/20 (offers backed by presented 2K $0.7822). The period ended on 11:45's 1K $0.7810/38.
11:46-13:06 began variable-volume $0.7700/53 as 11:46's 15.7K hit $0.771/$0.782, 11:47's 5.9K hit $0.7725/7, and 11:48's 9.7K hit $0.7726/25/41/40. B/a at 11:47 was 700:1.5K $0.7725/7, 12:03 7.5k:1.5K $0.7740/1, 12:17 1.6K:800 $0.7740/1, 12:32 7.4K:2K $0.7700/1, 12:46 7K:1.2K $0.7700/1, 13:03 700:800 $0.7701/2. The period ended on 13:06's 10.7K $0.7700/01.
13:07-13:45 began with a drop on 13:07-:09's 15.1K $0.7700 (2.9K)/$0.7690 (6.3K)/50/85, $0.7620/40 (2K), and $0.7605/21/07 (1.6K)/05, then did a five minute medium/low-volume $0.7603/20 before beginning an extremely low/no-volume, slow climb higher until 13:37-:41 did high/medium-volume. B/a at 13:15 was 500:200 $0.7616/45, 13:17 500:500 $0.7617/21. 13:20's1.3K hit $0.7630/8 and 13:27's 1K did $0.7636/50. B/a at 13:31 was 600:800 $0.7631/5. 13:38's 4K hit $0.7700/49. The period ended on 13:45's 180 $0.7643.
13:46-15:00, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7682/$0.7750 on 13:48's400 $0.7645/51. B/a at 13:47 was 400:200 $0.7637/45, 14:02 12.2K:100 $0.77/$0.7876. Price was interrupted by 14:11's 175 $0.7845. B/a at 14:17 was 200:600 $0.7702/23, 14:31 17.4K:400 $0.7700/1, 14:46 200:2.1K $0.7730/7785 (offers falling). The period ended on 15:00's 480 $0.7706.
15:01-15:56, during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:01 of 140:1.9K $0.7705/6. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume sag, through 15:18, after 15:03's 21.4K $0.77-5/1/$0.787. B/a at 15:10 was 3.6K:1.5K $0.7701/29 (offers falling), 15:17 1.2K:1.2K $0.7703/14. 15:18's 400 hit $0.7703 and trade went flat $0.7701/3 through 15:28. 15:29's 1.1K $0.7800/39 popped range back and began variable-volume $0.7711/$0.7839. The period ended on 15:56's 2.5K $0.7812.
15:57-16:00 did 15:57's 500 $0.79, 15:59's 200 $0.79 and ended the period and day on 16:00's 1,019 $0.79.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 17 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 130,451, 37.79% of day's volume, with a $0.7841 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 16 larger trades totaling 124,714, 36.13% of day's volume, with a $0.7827 VWAP. The VWAPs are below the day's $0.7783.
There's a similarity to yesterday which did 21 larger trades representing 38.42% of the day's trade volume and had VWAPs below the day's VWAP. As with yesterday, the count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is a bit on the high side. Today wasn't as flat for as long, having a wide spread though about 10:30 before going flat, down, up and then flat starting around 12:00, but the flatness and short percentage are also quite similar, although the short percentage is up about 14%. So I'm guessing that as I thought yesterday, there were shorters selling into strength early and either retailers or short-term traders were the takers.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, as mentioned above, we gave back yesterday's gains and then some. In spite of the recent PRs, the down leg continues. Our close appears to be right at the congruence of the rising short-term support (rising green line) and falling medium-term support (descending red line, former resistance). So the the breakout was holding for now. I suspect we'll see some sideways, with a weakening bias, as "the market" tries to figure whether these supports, especially the rising short-term support, will hold or price will move on through them. This would suggest reduced or reducing volume for a day or two.
We got a lower low and high today, returning the trend to continuing the down leg, but se still have not closed below the rising short-term support nor the falling medium-term support. I mentioned yesterday the short-term might provide some support but opined it would not hold long. My belief is that we will break close below in the next day or two and confirm the break. I'm less certain about the falling medium-term support though.
The fast EMA continues to decline while slow EMA rose for the second consecutive day. This situation does bring us closer to a negative cross possibility and the gap is down to $0.0068 now.
We stopped pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit after not being able to close above it for five consecutive days. I had stated { I think this will not end well, as I've mentioned. I expect we'll soon see a move lower. } This is comforting only in the fact that behavior is as expected. This gives optimism that reading of the tea ;eaves is at least correct, even if no positive.
On my one-year chart I can no longer see enough of the detail to tell if the medium-term support is holding or not. Just too much clutter.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had continuing weakening in accumulation/distribution, and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and Williams %R. ADX-related was flattening out, in aggregate. RSI, MFI, and momentum were above neutral. Everything else was below neutral. Nothing was oversold or overbought. MFI was just below overbought though.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution, suggesting to me shorters doing covering buys. Every other oscillator weakened. Still above neutral are RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum. All others are below neutral. Only Williams and full stochastic are nearing oversold territory.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7454 and $0.8311 ($0.7445 and $0.8305 yesterday), continued converging as the upper limit rose at a slower rate than the lower limit rose. We still have a rising mid-point.
All in, it looks like near-term the leg down is most likely to continue. Don't even see anything suggesting sideways consolidation is possible. S leg down within the medium-term consolidation seems most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and short percentage rose even with some masking of the real short activity by a higher large trades percentage. Not only did buy percentage fall, but left "no man's land" to drop to a level that suggests near-term weakness.
The spread widened to a range suggesting near-term movement is likely, down in this case, as it's within a down leg and was produced by a day that was essentially straight down until about 13:10 before any real recovery began. It got back about half the day's drop into the close.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for the third day at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 03/14 is $0.0455, 6.22%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2923%, 0.5141%, 0.4794%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, and 0.2365%.
All in, everything here suggests near-term weakening to me.
Bill
Everything today suggests near-term weakness as most likely. The down leg should continue within the medium-term consolidation. We are not in short-term consolidation now I think.
Today was essentially straight down until about 13:10 before any real recovery began. It got back about half the day's drop into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:45 opened the day with a 5,737 sell for $0.8140 & $0.82 x 3, $0.8140 x 100. B/a just after open was 1.6K:5.1K $0.81/2. Then came 9:31's 7.4K $0.8150 (5.7K)/00, 9:32's 1.5K $0.8100/08/01/03/10, 9:33's 3.3K $0.8091 (2.4K)/10/00, 9:34's 8.4K $0.80, 9:35's 13.3K (incl. 11.5K blk) $0.80, 9:39's b/a 100:200 $0.7901/$0.8098, 9:41's 2K $0.7901/00/03/00, 9:42's 500 $0.7850 (400)/$0.7986, 9:43's b/a 600:700 $0.7850/$0.7997, and the period ended on 9:45's 100 $0.7852
09:46-11:03, during the initial no-trades one minute had 9:47's b/a of 200:2.1K $0.7900/86. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume sag from $0.7964/7 on 9:47's 594 $0.7985. B/a at 9:54 was 1.8K:600 $0.7850/$0.7987, 10:02 1.8K:600 $0.7850/$0.7960, 10:10 1.1K:1.1K $0.7900/59. 10:10's 857 hit $0.7939. B/a at 10:14 was 1.1K:2.2K $0.7900/58. 10:16's 200 hit $0.79. B/a at 10:17 was 1K:2.2K $0.7900/58, 10:32 800:3.7K $0.7900/56, 10:47 400:2.3K $0.7900/32, 11:01 400:1.3K $0.7900/08. The period ended on 11:03's 540 $0.79.
11:04-11:45 began a mostly very low-volume decline on 11:04's 3.2K $0.7900 (2.5K)/$0.7850/1/0. B/a at 11:12 was 500:1K $0.7850/1. 11:15's 1.1K hit $0.7801/38. B/a at 11:20 was 2.3K:1.5K $0.7800/13. Volume was interrupted by 11:26's 10.2K $0.7827 (8.7K)/00. B/a at 11:32 was 500:20 $0.7800/20 (offers backed by presented 2K $0.7822). The period ended on 11:45's 1K $0.7810/38.
11:46-13:06 began variable-volume $0.7700/53 as 11:46's 15.7K hit $0.771/$0.782, 11:47's 5.9K hit $0.7725/7, and 11:48's 9.7K hit $0.7726/25/41/40. B/a at 11:47 was 700:1.5K $0.7725/7, 12:03 7.5k:1.5K $0.7740/1, 12:17 1.6K:800 $0.7740/1, 12:32 7.4K:2K $0.7700/1, 12:46 7K:1.2K $0.7700/1, 13:03 700:800 $0.7701/2. The period ended on 13:06's 10.7K $0.7700/01.
13:07-13:45 began with a drop on 13:07-:09's 15.1K $0.7700 (2.9K)/$0.7690 (6.3K)/50/85, $0.7620/40 (2K), and $0.7605/21/07 (1.6K)/05, then did a five minute medium/low-volume $0.7603/20 before beginning an extremely low/no-volume, slow climb higher until 13:37-:41 did high/medium-volume. B/a at 13:15 was 500:200 $0.7616/45, 13:17 500:500 $0.7617/21. 13:20's1.3K hit $0.7630/8 and 13:27's 1K did $0.7636/50. B/a at 13:31 was 600:800 $0.7631/5. 13:38's 4K hit $0.7700/49. The period ended on 13:45's 180 $0.7643.
13:46-15:00, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7682/$0.7750 on 13:48's400 $0.7645/51. B/a at 13:47 was 400:200 $0.7637/45, 14:02 12.2K:100 $0.77/$0.7876. Price was interrupted by 14:11's 175 $0.7845. B/a at 14:17 was 200:600 $0.7702/23, 14:31 17.4K:400 $0.7700/1, 14:46 200:2.1K $0.7730/7785 (offers falling). The period ended on 15:00's 480 $0.7706.
15:01-15:56, during the initial two no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:01 of 140:1.9K $0.7705/6. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume sag, through 15:18, after 15:03's 21.4K $0.77-5/1/$0.787. B/a at 15:10 was 3.6K:1.5K $0.7701/29 (offers falling), 15:17 1.2K:1.2K $0.7703/14. 15:18's 400 hit $0.7703 and trade went flat $0.7701/3 through 15:28. 15:29's 1.1K $0.7800/39 popped range back and began variable-volume $0.7711/$0.7839. The period ended on 15:56's 2.5K $0.7812.
15:57-16:00 did 15:57's 500 $0.79, 15:59's 200 $0.79 and ended the period and day on 16:00's 1,019 $0.79.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 17 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 130,451, 37.79% of day's volume, with a $0.7841 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 16 larger trades totaling 124,714, 36.13% of day's volume, with a $0.7827 VWAP. The VWAPs are below the day's $0.7783.
There's a similarity to yesterday which did 21 larger trades representing 38.42% of the day's trade volume and had VWAPs below the day's VWAP. As with yesterday, the count seems reasonable but the percentage of day's volume is a bit on the high side. Today wasn't as flat for as long, having a wide spread though about 10:30 before going flat, down, up and then flat starting around 12:00, but the flatness and short percentage are also quite similar, although the short percentage is up about 14%. So I'm guessing that as I thought yesterday, there were shorters selling into strength early and either retailers or short-term traders were the takers.
Note the volume in the 1 hour and 18 minutes ending at 11:03. Note also the disconnect between buy percentage improvement and VWAP deterioration. Unusually, the larger trades were more evenly distributed throughout the periods. Factored all in, I'm guessing the usual selling into strength accompanied by covering buys later in the day accounts for most of the larger trades, rising buy percentage and falling VWAP combination.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:45 42230 $0.7850 $0.8150 $33,974.11 $0.8045 12.23% 8.39% Incl 09:30 $0.8140 5,737 09:31 $0.8150 5,660
09:34 $0.8000 6,250 09:35 11,495
11:03 5394 $0.7900 $0.7985 $4,280.78 $0.7936 1.56% 15.03%
11:45 23838 $0.7795 $0.7900 $18,662.45 $0.7829 6.91% 31.43% Incl 11:26 $0.7827 8,700
13:06 93915 $0.7700 $0.7820 $72,576.13 $0.7728 27.21% 37.53% Incl 11:46 $0.7726 4,000 $0.7820 10,000
11:48 $0.7741 5,000 12:25 $0.7702 5,343
13:06 $0.7700 4,106
13:45 52049 $0.7603 $0.7749 $39,815.03 $0.7650 15.08% 43.69% Incl 13:07 $0.7690 4,500
15:00 28373 $0.7645 $0.7845 $21,879.80 $0.7711 8.22% 43.61% Incl 13:51 $0.7682 4,800
15:56 94724 $0.7701 $0.7870 $73,806.72 $0.7792 27.44% 42.14% Incl 15:03 $0.7800 20,000 15:35 18,000
15:37 $0.7801 4,000 15:39 $0.7800 8,400
15:41 $0.7800 4,460
16:00 1719 $0.7900 $0.7900 $1,358.01 $0.7900 0.50% 41.92%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today gave back all of yesterday's improvement and then some. The decline in volume continues and suggests that some end to the weakening may be in site. But we've seem this situation before and the suggested end took longer to appear than one might expect, so I wouldn't bet any chips on this happening in a day or two.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.05% -4.00% -2.98% -1.25% -15.71%
Prior 2.59% 1.54% -0.79% 1.91% -16.54%
On my minimal chart, as mentioned above, we gave back yesterday's gains and then some. In spite of the recent PRs, the down leg continues. Our close appears to be right at the congruence of the rising short-term support (rising green line) and falling medium-term support (descending red line, former resistance). So the the breakout was holding for now. I suspect we'll see some sideways, with a weakening bias, as "the market" tries to figure whether these supports, especially the rising short-term support, will hold or price will move on through them. This would suggest reduced or reducing volume for a day or two.
We got a lower low and high today, returning the trend to continuing the down leg, but se still have not closed below the rising short-term support nor the falling medium-term support. I mentioned yesterday the short-term might provide some support but opined it would not hold long. My belief is that we will break close below in the next day or two and confirm the break. I'm less certain about the falling medium-term support though.
The fast EMA continues to decline while slow EMA rose for the second consecutive day. This situation does bring us closer to a negative cross possibility and the gap is down to $0.0068 now.
We stopped pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit after not being able to close above it for five consecutive days. I had stated { I think this will not end well, as I've mentioned. I expect we'll soon see a move lower. } This is comforting only in the fact that behavior is as expected. This gives optimism that reading of the tea ;eaves is at least correct, even if no positive.
On my one-year chart I can no longer see enough of the detail to tell if the medium-term support is holding or not. Just too much clutter.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had continuing weakening in accumulation/distribution, and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and Williams %R. ADX-related was flattening out, in aggregate. RSI, MFI, and momentum were above neutral. Everything else was below neutral. Nothing was oversold or overbought. MFI was just below overbought though.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution, suggesting to me shorters doing covering buys. Every other oscillator weakened. Still above neutral are RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum. All others are below neutral. Only Williams and full stochastic are nearing oversold territory.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7454 and $0.8311 ($0.7445 and $0.8305 yesterday), continued converging as the upper limit rose at a slower rate than the lower limit rose. We still have a rising mid-point.
All in, it looks like near-term the leg down is most likely to continue. Don't even see anything suggesting sideways consolidation is possible. S leg down within the medium-term consolidation seems most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and short percentage rose even with some masking of the real short activity by a higher large trades percentage. Not only did buy percentage fall, but left "no man's land" to drop to a level that suggests near-term weakness.
The spread widened to a range suggesting near-term movement is likely, down in this case, as it's within a down leg and was produced by a day that was essentially straight down until about 13:10 before any real recovery began. It got back about half the day's drop into the close.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for the third day at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 03/14 is $0.0455, 6.22%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2923%, 0.5141%, 0.4794%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, and 0.2365%.
All in, everything here suggests near-term weakening to me.
Bill
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