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Re: nonewname1 post# 15590

Thursday, 04/20/2017 12:47:29 PM

Thursday, April 20, 2017 12:47:29 PM

Post# of 43557
So new math lesson using CPK model:

http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/california-pizza-kitchen-inc-history/

"In 1992 PepsiCo Inc., located in Purchase, New York, bought a 50 percent interest in California Pizza Kitchen, which it later increased to 67 percent."

"The arrangement between PepsiCo and California Pizza Kitchen seemed to be a gift to Flax and Rosenfield. At the time of the deal, California Pizza Kitchen was generating approximately $60 million in annual sales from all its restaurants, with each one averaging a little over $3 million. The number of employees had reached 1,700, the number of operating restaurants had risen to 25, and the ambitious entrepreneurs were pursuing a strategy to open a new unit each month. Although the owners were contemplating a public stock offering in order to continue their expansion program, they decided to accept PepsiCo's offer due to the generous terms of the agreement. Flax and Rosenfield realized that PepsiCo management wanted to learn how to run an operation like theirs, and they were more than willing to teach people at PepsiCo what they knew in exchange for limitless expansion capital. Each new restaurant was costing nearly $1 million to open over an eight-month period, and Flax and Rosenfield did not want to interrupt their aggressive expansion plans."

$100M for 67% of the company = $150M valuation.
$150M divided by 25 stores = $6M per store
$6M x 2.59 for inflation from 1992 = $15.54M per store
$15.54M x 2 stores = $31M (twice our current market cap, granted the company is not yet profitable)

That translates to a share price of about .22, so a little lower is fair given the need for cash and not yet being profitable. And that's just if we remain stagnant without adding another store.

Any news at all should send this thing flying. Once it is profitable and you're legit looking at ~15M market cap per store (about four years of revenues), $1 for forward looking possibility is well within the ballpark.

Feel free anyone to correct this, just going off the math of the original poster.

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