zzaatt, apologies if I'm harping on risk and making those statements too generic. The core risk is that very few other companies or academic institutions have been/are pursuing/studying listeria-based approaches to immunotherapy. Thus, there's far less scientific information/ knowledge "out there" among market participants by which they can judge the possibility of success. Lack of knowledge = risk. For ADXS investors.
So, as you say, only trial results will dispel that risk. But, I don't see sufficient trial results being likely for another 1-2 years. Yes, we will have some interim results; yes, we could get into the EU market with AXAL for cervical. And those events, if positive, will move the pps ahead...to what level is hard to say, but I could see $20-$25/sh, even $40 after EU market approval (that's not likely for another 12 months, IMHO). But, to get to the much ballyhooed $6B market cap will require, at a minimum, the AIM2Cerv report out...late 2019. Even then, I think that market cap number is a stretch.
Why do I think that $6B for successful Ph3 is a stretch? I've done a back-of-the-envelope analysis based on ~15,000 new cervical cases in the US and ~30,000 in the EU each year. I'm not enough of an expert to be confident in my estimates of the price ADXS could charge for AXAL cervical treatment or the % of cases that would use it versus other therapies. Then, one has to judge how that total value estimate is reflected in market cap.
If there are any on this board who have some expertise in the values for these variables, please weigh in. That's just for AXAL cervical. Obviously, more value could be driven by anal, head&neck, etc., but those Ph3 results/ approvals may be even further out.
If anyone else would like to provide an analysis specific to ADXS that argues there will be sufficient evidence to convince a broad range of market participants that the Lm platform works, even in a single indication, before ~2 years, I'd love to hear it.
Further, if anyone has enough expertise to show us how an approved cervical therapy (or anal or head&neck therapies) might generate market cap based on analysis like I outline above, that would be great!
