A Warning Sign For EM Equities By BCA Research | April 18, 2017
A relapse in industrial metals versus lumber prices is a poor omen for EM equities.
The ratio of industrial metals to U.S. lumber prices has had a reasonably good track record in gauging relative performance of EM versus U.S. share prices. Industrial metals prices are a proxy for economic growth in China/EM, while U.S. lumber prices are indicative of America’s business cycle. Industrial metals prices (the LMEX index) have lately underperformed U.S. lumber prices, pointing to renewed EM underperformance versus the S&P 500.
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