Monday, April 17, 2017 7:44:10 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 04/13 2017 EOD
Sans another positive catalyst, everything I see is near-term negative in the aggregate indications.
Generally, today was a long slow constant decline from the early typical higher price and volatility period through 13:45. Then it was pretty-much flattish into and through the close. Volume was a bit higher than many other recent non-PR days. Since we are entering a holiday weekend this is a bit surprising. I don't consider it a positive though as that view is not supported by any other metrics I look at. Nor was any positive read supported by the intra-day price and buy percentage behavior.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 13K:1.5K $0.78/$0.88, then 5K:1.5K $0.78/$0.88.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 3,946 buy for $0.81 & $0.8101 x 300, $0.81 x 1,333, $0.8384 x 200, $0.8467 x 170. B/a just after open was 3.1K:30 $0.8100/99 (offers backed by presented 301 $0.8467). Then came 9:31's 100 $0.8102, 9:32's 500 $0.8103/06/10, 9:33's 400 $0.8103/10, 9:54's 100 $0.8110, 9:34's 700:1.7K $0.8110/99 (offers falling), 9:35's 400 $0.8114, 9:36's 500 $0.8114, 9:37's 1.4K $0.8114/10/11/00, 9:38's 800 $0.8100, 9:39's 400 $0.81, 9:39's b/a 3K:2.8K $0.8100/96, 9:40's 3.3K $0.81, 9:41's 500 $0.8004/6/$0.8124, 9:41's b/a 500:200 $0.8001/$0.8199, 9:42's 400 $0.8006/7/14, 9:43's 200 $0.8015, 9:44's 10.4K $0.8020/10/13/10/13/11/10/13/10/20/10/20/22/10/20/22/10/13/10/13/10/13/11/13/10/20/10/20/18/10/18/14/10/10/14/16, 9:45's 400 $0.8016/7, 9:46's 25.3K $0.8017/00 (11.8K blk)/17 (2.2K)/16/06/02/06/16/12/10/01/00 (7.6K)/03, 9:47's 11.6K $0.8000/39 (5K)/00/01/00/01/00, 9:48's 300 $0.80, 9:49's 200 $0.80, 9:49's 400 $0.80, 9:49's b/a 12.4K:1.3K $0.8000/39 (offers falling), 9:50's 300 $0.80, 9:51's 1K $0.8000/1, 9:52's 300 $0.8001, 9:53's 10.6K $0.??:??, 9:53's b/a 11K:100 $0.8000/$0.8198, 9:54's 200 $0.81, 9:55's 1.1K $0.8050/49/$0.81 (1.2K), 9:56's 400 $0.81. 9:57's b/a 400:200 $0.8002/$0.8198, and the period ended on 9:57's 100 $0.8197
09:58-10:39 began $0.8005/99, with slowly rising lows through 10:16, on 9:58's 200 $0.8010. B/a at 10:00 was 1.7K:2.7K $0.8003/99, 10:06 300:1.6K $0.8030/99, 10:14 2.3K:1.3K $0.8031/99. Volume was interrupted and price range dropped on 10:22's 8.6K $0.8070/71/56/68 (4.4K)/45/20 to dovery low-volume $0.8021/47, with again rising lows. B/a at 10:31 600:100 $0.8016/47. The period ended on 10:39's 10.7K $0.8020 (9.9K)/19/50/51.
10:40-11:15 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8023/$0.81, with falling highs, on 10:40's 5.9K $0.8052/99/$0.81/99 ... $0.81/$0.8098/$0.81. B/a at 10:46 was 100:700 $0.8051/$0.81. Volume was interrupted by 10:49's 4.1K $0.8051/2/1. B/a at 11:11 was 8K:100 $0.8030/$0.8060. The period ended on 11:15's 200 $0.8031.
11:16-11:24 11:16's 200 $0.8002 began a extremely low-volume sag from $0.8000/4 before the final four-minute drop. B/a at 11:17 was 11.4K:200 $0.80/$0.8020. 11:20's 9.7K $0.80 started the final drop and the next for minutes did 4.4K to end the period on 11:24's 200 $0.7902.
11:25-11:45 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7902/10 on 11:25's 600 $0.7920/02. B/a at 11:31 8.3K:1.1K $0.7903/49. Price was interrupted by 11:43's 300 $0.7906/96/05. The period ended on 11:45's 200 $0.7905.
11:46-12:25 began with b/a at 11:46 of 200:1K $0.7904/96. Trade began very low-volume $0.7904/97, with slowly falling highs, on 11:46's 10.6K $0.7905/04/43/04/44/04/44/46/06/05/45. B/a at 11:56 was 782:500 $0.7903/96, 12:01 782:4.4K $0.7903/95. By 12:10 the range was down to $0.7902/05 (with one minute doing $0.7912). B/a at 12:14 was 4.5K:4.4K $0.7902/92 (offers jiggling $0.7904 and falling), 12:16 5K:1K $0.7902/4 (offers jiggling 04/05). The period ended on 12:25's 200 $0.7902.
12:26-13:06 did extremely low-volume for the whole period. 12:26's 800 $0.7902/12/00 began $0.7831/47 through 12:44. Then trade was $0.7832/$0.7999, with rapidly rising lows and slowly falling highs. B/a at 12:31 was 8.3K:300 $0.7830/$0.80, 12:46 400:100 $0.7834/$0.7999. The period ended on 13:06's 200 $0.7835.
13:07-13:53 began very low-volume $0.7804/99, with collapsing highs and slowly rising lows, on 13:07's 47.7K $0.7835/01 (26.1K blk)/30 (8K)/31/34/31/03/68/34/30/08/07/68/01 (4.4K)/02 (4.4K)/42. B/a at 13:10 was 300:100 $0.7803/$0.7998. Price trend's collapsing highs was interrupted by 13:14's 668 $0.7818/$0.7997, after which the trend returned. B/a at 13:16 was 100:100 $0.7821/61. At 13:20 range was $0.7823/40, after which 13:21's 300 dropped the lows back down to $0.7808 and they continued falling. Volume was interrupted by 13:25's 1.9K $0.7807/49/05. B/a at 13:31 was 3.5K:2.8K $0.7801/45, 13:46 400:200 $0.7811/13. The period ended on 13:53's 300 $0.7810/74.
13:54-15:42 began very low-volume $0.7812/$0.7992, with slowly falling highs and very slowly rising lows, on 13:54's 16.2K $0.7811/$0.7900/$0.7812/$0.8099 (7.6K)/$0.7990 (2.3K)/$0.8000 (1K)/$0.7999/89/90/99/98/89/90/00/89/99/$0.8000. B/a at 13:57 was 500:1.2K $0.7811/13 (offers jiggling), 14:02 600:100 $0.7813/$0.79, 14:17 300:100 $0.7840/$0.80, 14:32 100:100 $0.7831/$0.79, 14:48 200:300 $0.7831/$0.80, 15:02 200:200 $0.7850/$0.80. At 15:12 range was down to $0.7834/60. B/a at 15:17 was 9.5K:300 $0.7830/$0.80. Price was interrupted by 15:28's 400 $0.7833/$0.793. B/a at 15:32 was 8K:200 $0.7830/$0.80. Range expanded to $0.7830/99 at 15:37 and highs began immediately falling into the period ending on 15:42's 100 $0.7918.
15:43-15:59 began the typical EDO price volatility, doing low/medium-volume $0.7836/$0.799, on 15:43's 200 $0.784/$0.798. B/a at 15:48 was 100:2042 $0.7838/$0.7990. The period ended on 15:59's 5K $0.7850/$0.7980 (2.9K)/$0.7850, the official close because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 23 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 173,321, 35.32% of day's volume, with a $0.7911 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the day's volume but the percentage of day's volume deems a bit on the high side. There were several "larger larger trades", at disparate prices, that accounts for this.
The VWAP is below the day's $0.7937, suggesting that many buyers were likely more astute players such as MMs and shorters doing covering buys. However some of the larger trades were not so astute. Check the breakdown if you have an interest.
The VWAP seems reasonably well linked to the buy percentage today.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, again, { the most significant thing is today did not (yet!) negate yesterday's [2 days ago] confirmation of a breakout above the descending resistance (descending red line). } However, AFAICT it closed right on that line, so it's ability to remain above the descending support is tenuous right now. But there's a Monday coming, so maybe another PR will save it. I wrapped up with { I would be expecting price to at least penetrate that line in the next couple days and wouldn't be shocked to see it close below, throwing price back into fighting to remain/get above the descending resistance. } We did penetrate the line and managed to close right on the line rather than below. That means the breakout is holding.
I had mentioned the rising short-term support (rising green line) might limit the downside and give us a lift. It could have done that but the lines are so close together that I can not distinguish if either is apparently giving support.
Our low is down for the second consecutive day on declining volume. As mentioned often, the declining volume is the only potential bright spot, but it has failed to fulfill its indication so often that we have to begin to doubt it veracity.
Both the fast and slow EMAs have stopped rising, as suggested by yesterday's reducing rate of rise in the fast EMA. I had opined { I still think the near-term likelihood of a negative cross is low, but if we continue this for more than a day or two the likelihood increases substantially. } It's getting a bit tight here. Maybe another Monday PR will ride to the rescue.
Yesterday I repeated what I've said so often - { We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit but could not close above it for a third day. As mentioned, out history is not good when pushing it. I suspect now we start to see the historical behavior begin. } Two consecutive lower highs and lows but we're still "pushing" the upper limit. It has almost stopped rising though, up today only $0.0001, and sans some catalyst I would expect us to begin to withdraw from the upper limit very soon.
Fortunately the lower limit is continuing to rise, raising the mid-point, so we can hope for some less depth to the down side.
The $0.82/3 resistance wasn't tested today as price began to withdraw below it. That resistance is turning out to be about as stout as the $0.80 resistance was. We can look forward to this being a factor in the near-term regardless of PR I think.
On my one-year chart it looks like the long-term descending support (was resistance) is holding, but it's very hard to tell because tat portion of the chart is very congested with bars, moving averages, etc.
If the current behavior is not interrupted by another PR with big effect I think there'll be enough stability to start doing moving average projections again.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had continuing weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. Weakening also occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and full stochastic. Accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related are below neutral. Nothing is overbought and RSI moved further from that condition while MFI remains very close to being overbought.
Today had continuing weakening of RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), accumulation/distribution, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Weakening also began in momentum. So nothing showed improvement. RSI, Momentum and MFI are the only ones still above neutral and RSI is barely there. All others are below neutral. Williams %R is barely above oversold and nothing else is close to oversold right now.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7397 and $0.8291 ($0.7361 and $0.8290 yesterday), stopped diverging as the upper limit fell while the lower limit continues rising. The difference in their rates still gives us a rising mid-point.
Yesterday I said { My best estimate is we have started a down leg, will go on to test $0.80 and likely not hold there sans another well-timed PR. Even then it may not hold as the participants will certainly begin to recognize the pattern and alter their behavior. } Well, $0.80 didn't hold as price went as low as $0.78 and closed at $0.7850. It's on reducing, but barely - maybe flat is more appropriate - volume. That leaves some hope on the table, but no much.
All in, just like yesterday everything is becoming increasingly negative in their indications. That leaves me in the near-term bearish frame of mind.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and the short percentage spiked over these last two days, possibly confirming my thoughts that the shorting activity was higher than we could see because it was "masked" by the larger trades. So short percentage is well above my desired range and the buy percentage is even further below where it needs to be to just have price stable, never mind appreciate.
The spread remained rather flattish in a range suggesting movement. Sans another positive catalyst the direction suggested is most likely down.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 03/10 is $0.0806, 11.31%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4794%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, and 0.1960%.
All in, nothing of a positive nature appears in this stuff other than continued short-term improvement in the rolling 24-day VWAP change averages. That's not much.
I've got to go with a near-term negative outlook here too.
Bill
Sans another positive catalyst, everything I see is near-term negative in the aggregate indications.
Generally, today was a long slow constant decline from the early typical higher price and volatility period through 13:45. Then it was pretty-much flattish into and through the close. Volume was a bit higher than many other recent non-PR days. Since we are entering a holiday weekend this is a bit surprising. I don't consider it a positive though as that view is not supported by any other metrics I look at. Nor was any positive read supported by the intra-day price and buy percentage behavior.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 13K:1.5K $0.78/$0.88, then 5K:1.5K $0.78/$0.88.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 3,946 buy for $0.81 & $0.8101 x 300, $0.81 x 1,333, $0.8384 x 200, $0.8467 x 170. B/a just after open was 3.1K:30 $0.8100/99 (offers backed by presented 301 $0.8467). Then came 9:31's 100 $0.8102, 9:32's 500 $0.8103/06/10, 9:33's 400 $0.8103/10, 9:54's 100 $0.8110, 9:34's 700:1.7K $0.8110/99 (offers falling), 9:35's 400 $0.8114, 9:36's 500 $0.8114, 9:37's 1.4K $0.8114/10/11/00, 9:38's 800 $0.8100, 9:39's 400 $0.81, 9:39's b/a 3K:2.8K $0.8100/96, 9:40's 3.3K $0.81, 9:41's 500 $0.8004/6/$0.8124, 9:41's b/a 500:200 $0.8001/$0.8199, 9:42's 400 $0.8006/7/14, 9:43's 200 $0.8015, 9:44's 10.4K $0.8020/10/13/10/13/11/10/13/10/20/10/20/22/10/20/22/10/13/10/13/10/13/11/13/10/20/10/20/18/10/18/14/10/10/14/16, 9:45's 400 $0.8016/7, 9:46's 25.3K $0.8017/00 (11.8K blk)/17 (2.2K)/16/06/02/06/16/12/10/01/00 (7.6K)/03, 9:47's 11.6K $0.8000/39 (5K)/00/01/00/01/00, 9:48's 300 $0.80, 9:49's 200 $0.80, 9:49's 400 $0.80, 9:49's b/a 12.4K:1.3K $0.8000/39 (offers falling), 9:50's 300 $0.80, 9:51's 1K $0.8000/1, 9:52's 300 $0.8001, 9:53's 10.6K $0.??:??, 9:53's b/a 11K:100 $0.8000/$0.8198, 9:54's 200 $0.81, 9:55's 1.1K $0.8050/49/$0.81 (1.2K), 9:56's 400 $0.81. 9:57's b/a 400:200 $0.8002/$0.8198, and the period ended on 9:57's 100 $0.8197
09:58-10:39 began $0.8005/99, with slowly rising lows through 10:16, on 9:58's 200 $0.8010. B/a at 10:00 was 1.7K:2.7K $0.8003/99, 10:06 300:1.6K $0.8030/99, 10:14 2.3K:1.3K $0.8031/99. Volume was interrupted and price range dropped on 10:22's 8.6K $0.8070/71/56/68 (4.4K)/45/20 to dovery low-volume $0.8021/47, with again rising lows. B/a at 10:31 600:100 $0.8016/47. The period ended on 10:39's 10.7K $0.8020 (9.9K)/19/50/51.
10:40-11:15 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8023/$0.81, with falling highs, on 10:40's 5.9K $0.8052/99/$0.81/99 ... $0.81/$0.8098/$0.81. B/a at 10:46 was 100:700 $0.8051/$0.81. Volume was interrupted by 10:49's 4.1K $0.8051/2/1. B/a at 11:11 was 8K:100 $0.8030/$0.8060. The period ended on 11:15's 200 $0.8031.
11:16-11:24 11:16's 200 $0.8002 began a extremely low-volume sag from $0.8000/4 before the final four-minute drop. B/a at 11:17 was 11.4K:200 $0.80/$0.8020. 11:20's 9.7K $0.80 started the final drop and the next for minutes did 4.4K to end the period on 11:24's 200 $0.7902.
11:25-11:45 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7902/10 on 11:25's 600 $0.7920/02. B/a at 11:31 8.3K:1.1K $0.7903/49. Price was interrupted by 11:43's 300 $0.7906/96/05. The period ended on 11:45's 200 $0.7905.
11:46-12:25 began with b/a at 11:46 of 200:1K $0.7904/96. Trade began very low-volume $0.7904/97, with slowly falling highs, on 11:46's 10.6K $0.7905/04/43/04/44/04/44/46/06/05/45. B/a at 11:56 was 782:500 $0.7903/96, 12:01 782:4.4K $0.7903/95. By 12:10 the range was down to $0.7902/05 (with one minute doing $0.7912). B/a at 12:14 was 4.5K:4.4K $0.7902/92 (offers jiggling $0.7904 and falling), 12:16 5K:1K $0.7902/4 (offers jiggling 04/05). The period ended on 12:25's 200 $0.7902.
12:26-13:06 did extremely low-volume for the whole period. 12:26's 800 $0.7902/12/00 began $0.7831/47 through 12:44. Then trade was $0.7832/$0.7999, with rapidly rising lows and slowly falling highs. B/a at 12:31 was 8.3K:300 $0.7830/$0.80, 12:46 400:100 $0.7834/$0.7999. The period ended on 13:06's 200 $0.7835.
13:07-13:53 began very low-volume $0.7804/99, with collapsing highs and slowly rising lows, on 13:07's 47.7K $0.7835/01 (26.1K blk)/30 (8K)/31/34/31/03/68/34/30/08/07/68/01 (4.4K)/02 (4.4K)/42. B/a at 13:10 was 300:100 $0.7803/$0.7998. Price trend's collapsing highs was interrupted by 13:14's 668 $0.7818/$0.7997, after which the trend returned. B/a at 13:16 was 100:100 $0.7821/61. At 13:20 range was $0.7823/40, after which 13:21's 300 dropped the lows back down to $0.7808 and they continued falling. Volume was interrupted by 13:25's 1.9K $0.7807/49/05. B/a at 13:31 was 3.5K:2.8K $0.7801/45, 13:46 400:200 $0.7811/13. The period ended on 13:53's 300 $0.7810/74.
13:54-15:42 began very low-volume $0.7812/$0.7992, with slowly falling highs and very slowly rising lows, on 13:54's 16.2K $0.7811/$0.7900/$0.7812/$0.8099 (7.6K)/$0.7990 (2.3K)/$0.8000 (1K)/$0.7999/89/90/99/98/89/90/00/89/99/$0.8000. B/a at 13:57 was 500:1.2K $0.7811/13 (offers jiggling), 14:02 600:100 $0.7813/$0.79, 14:17 300:100 $0.7840/$0.80, 14:32 100:100 $0.7831/$0.79, 14:48 200:300 $0.7831/$0.80, 15:02 200:200 $0.7850/$0.80. At 15:12 range was down to $0.7834/60. B/a at 15:17 was 9.5K:300 $0.7830/$0.80. Price was interrupted by 15:28's 400 $0.7833/$0.793. B/a at 15:32 was 8K:200 $0.7830/$0.80. Range expanded to $0.7830/99 at 15:37 and highs began immediately falling into the period ending on 15:42's 100 $0.7918.
15:43-15:59 began the typical EDO price volatility, doing low/medium-volume $0.7836/$0.799, on 15:43's 200 $0.784/$0.798. B/a at 15:48 was 100:2042 $0.7838/$0.7990. The period ended on 15:59's 5K $0.7850/$0.7980 (2.9K)/$0.7850, the official close because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 23 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 173,321, 35.32% of day's volume, with a $0.7911 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the day's volume but the percentage of day's volume deems a bit on the high side. There were several "larger larger trades", at disparate prices, that accounts for this.
The VWAP is below the day's $0.7937, suggesting that many buyers were likely more astute players such as MMs and shorters doing covering buys. However some of the larger trades were not so astute. Check the breakdown if you have an interest.
It's almost painful to look at the continued depressed levels of the buy percentage. This making me think more about those warrants and the timing of the PRs. I admit there's likely nothing nefarious going on but it stinks anyway.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:57 79240 $0.8000 $0.8467 $63,972.27 $0.8073 16.15% 28.01% Incl 09:46 $0.8000 11,800 09:47 $0.8039 5,000
10:39 46453 $0.8010 $0.8100 $37,376.39 $0.8046 9.47% 35.47% Incl 10:30 $0.8045 4,999
10:39 $0.8020 4,120 5,820
11:15 34251 $0.8023 $0.8198 $27,603.39 $0.8059 6.98% 31.01% Incl 11:14 $0.8030 5,700
11:24 16740 $0.7901 $0.8004 $13,372.36 $0.7988 3.41% 29.98% Incl 11:20 $0.8000 9,040
11:45 8000 $0.7902 $0.7996 $6,324.73 $0.7906 1.63% 29.32%
12:25 39950 $0.7902 $0.7997 $31,693.54 $0.7933 8.14% 29.84% Incl 11:56 $0.7995 9,250 12:24 $0.7902 4,300
13:06 50825 $0.7831 $0.7999 $40,118.56 $0.7893 10.36% 24.67% Incl 12:27 $0.7900 8,719 9,201 5,500
12:28 $0.7900 10,000
13:53 91649 $0.7800 $0.7997 $71,566.60 $0.7809 18.68% 19.33% Incl 13:07 $0.7801 26,172 $0.7830 8,000
13:07 4,400 $0.7801 $0.7802
13:38 $0.7800 5,000
15:42 87345 $0.7811 $0.8099 $68,805.96 $0.7877 17.80% 21.05% Incl 13:54 $0.8099 7,600 14:10 $0.7818 7,000
15:31 $0.7830 8,300 15:38 $0.7898 4,000
15:59 35038 $0.7836 $0.7990 $27,666.92 $0.7896 7.14% 22.29% Incl 15:57 $0.7850 5,000
The VWAP seems reasonably well linked to the buy percentage today.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today seems to confirm yesterday's { Well, it looks like a down-leg has started. I was hoping, rather weakly ... } This is the second consecutive day of all negatives. The only good one is the volume as it continues to indicate strength in the down move is not increasing.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -3.57% -2.50% -2.18% -3.70% -3.77%
Prior -1.18% -1.42% -1.61% -1.78% -51.29%
On my minimal chart, again, { the most significant thing is today did not (yet!) negate yesterday's [2 days ago] confirmation of a breakout above the descending resistance (descending red line). } However, AFAICT it closed right on that line, so it's ability to remain above the descending support is tenuous right now. But there's a Monday coming, so maybe another PR will save it. I wrapped up with { I would be expecting price to at least penetrate that line in the next couple days and wouldn't be shocked to see it close below, throwing price back into fighting to remain/get above the descending resistance. } We did penetrate the line and managed to close right on the line rather than below. That means the breakout is holding.
I had mentioned the rising short-term support (rising green line) might limit the downside and give us a lift. It could have done that but the lines are so close together that I can not distinguish if either is apparently giving support.
Our low is down for the second consecutive day on declining volume. As mentioned often, the declining volume is the only potential bright spot, but it has failed to fulfill its indication so often that we have to begin to doubt it veracity.
Both the fast and slow EMAs have stopped rising, as suggested by yesterday's reducing rate of rise in the fast EMA. I had opined { I still think the near-term likelihood of a negative cross is low, but if we continue this for more than a day or two the likelihood increases substantially. } It's getting a bit tight here. Maybe another Monday PR will ride to the rescue.
Yesterday I repeated what I've said so often - { We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band's upper limit but could not close above it for a third day. As mentioned, out history is not good when pushing it. I suspect now we start to see the historical behavior begin. } Two consecutive lower highs and lows but we're still "pushing" the upper limit. It has almost stopped rising though, up today only $0.0001, and sans some catalyst I would expect us to begin to withdraw from the upper limit very soon.
Fortunately the lower limit is continuing to rise, raising the mid-point, so we can hope for some less depth to the down side.
The $0.82/3 resistance wasn't tested today as price began to withdraw below it. That resistance is turning out to be about as stout as the $0.80 resistance was. We can look forward to this being a factor in the near-term regardless of PR I think.
On my one-year chart it looks like the long-term descending support (was resistance) is holding, but it's very hard to tell because tat portion of the chart is very congested with bars, moving averages, etc.
If the current behavior is not interrupted by another PR with big effect I think there'll be enough stability to start doing moving average projections again.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had continuing weakening accumulation/distribution, Williams %R and full stochastic. Weakening also occurred in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and full stochastic. Accumulation/distribution, full stochastic and ADX-related are below neutral. Nothing is overbought and RSI moved further from that condition while MFI remains very close to being overbought.
Today had continuing weakening of RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), accumulation/distribution, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Weakening also began in momentum. So nothing showed improvement. RSI, Momentum and MFI are the only ones still above neutral and RSI is barely there. All others are below neutral. Williams %R is barely above oversold and nothing else is close to oversold right now.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7397 and $0.8291 ($0.7361 and $0.8290 yesterday), stopped diverging as the upper limit fell while the lower limit continues rising. The difference in their rates still gives us a rising mid-point.
Yesterday I said { My best estimate is we have started a down leg, will go on to test $0.80 and likely not hold there sans another well-timed PR. Even then it may not hold as the participants will certainly begin to recognize the pattern and alter their behavior. } Well, $0.80 didn't hold as price went as low as $0.78 and closed at $0.7850. It's on reducing, but barely - maybe flat is more appropriate - volume. That leaves some hope on the table, but no much.
All in, just like yesterday everything is becoming increasingly negative in their indications. That leaves me in the near-term bearish frame of mind.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and the short percentage spiked over these last two days, possibly confirming my thoughts that the shorting activity was higher than we could see because it was "masked" by the larger trades. So short percentage is well above my desired range and the buy percentage is even further below where it needs to be to just have price stable, never mind appreciate.
The spread remained rather flattish in a range suggesting movement. Sans another positive catalyst the direction suggested is most likely down.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, held at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 03/10 is $0.0806, 11.31%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.4794%, 0.4700% ,0.2025%, 0.1853%, 0.0928%, 0.1136%, 0.3337%, 0.2365%, 0.1802%, and 0.1960%.
All in, nothing of a positive nature appears in this stuff other than continued short-term improvement in the rolling 24-day VWAP change averages. That's not much.
I've got to go with a near-term negative outlook here too.
Bill
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