Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[Meishairwin]

Point taken that 0265 participants were sicker than average SOC patients, suggesting AXAL should show better against a randomized control arm....but, that's somewhat the point: there's no way to know for certain ahead of the AIM2Cerv interim results in 2019. I don't believe any other Ph2 with randomized control arm will have results before then(?).

I expect we'll have various pieces of good news between now and then: EU approval (conditional on ongoing results better than SOC and AIM2Cerv results), various Ph1 and Ph2 trials with positive outcomes. New developments not on the radar. Let's hope all those things happen.

But, ultimately, much of what ADXS is doing may not matter if we don't get good AIM2Cerv results. If AIM2Cerv fails, whatever value those other achievements offer could evaporate overnight. Neoepitopes could still work even if AXAL does not, so AXAL may not be the whole ball of wax for ADXS.

Lots of moving parts that we need to dig into to construct a usable "if/ then" set of scenarios so we can judge the significance of both positive and negative events as they occur.