Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[Meishairwin]

Maybe I do sound too pessimistic to some. My approach to investing is to take a conservative view on what a company may accomplish in a given time period and use that as my benchmark for judging whether the risk/ return is right. With ADXS I am assuming the science will work -- and that's a big assumption/ risk even though the data look good so far -- and I am assuming timing will not slip noticeably from projections...another big assumption with risk. We've seen things slip (e.g., Aratana). EU approval could slip. Trial progress could slip.

The unknowns I think we may have different views on is how market cap will react to events/ timing and the likelihood of some big, unpredictable positive surprise. If ADXS were mainstream, I'd be more optimistic about earlier, bigger price appreciation based on events/ timing. I never factor in that "something big" could happen we're not aware of. Amgen was an unexpected "big deal," as an example of such, but got no sustained pps gain. It was an excellent trading opportunity.

Don't get me wrong, I think ADXS could be a big winner. I just think expectations for significant sustained pps gains in the near future (6-12 months) are unrealistic. Happy to be proven wrong!