here is a relevant example of thinking outside the box as regards Ivanhoe. Politics is not particularly germane to other investment sectors, software and even biotech largely, for instance, but in resource stocks, it is always relevant for obvious reasons...
but my example of non conventional thinking which may impact Ivanhoe as an investment.
The current political regime is in the process of change, after a generation. This year, in the Congo, from Joe Kabila being the country's dominant chief executive, to a more "democratic republic." Personally, viewing Ivanhoe as investment, I view Kabila's rule as a net positive, so change to me is somewhat worrisome. However, on the other board, there are many investors who hate him, but they are letting their politics merge into investing in a company. There is no doubt whatsoever that the Congo has developed, under Kabila's presidency, an established mining culture. There are now well over 100 companies in the Congo, engaged in mining based on their constitution and mining laws which Kabila can claim responsibility for helping to develop. The congo, under Kabila's government (socialists call it his "regime" lol), now has easily surpassed Canada as one of the world's top copper producers, and in the future it will blow Canada, those "democrats" away...building our wealth and the citizen's wealth.. Countries in Latin America are always in a state of flux, and the stocks get hit when the democrats, aka the socialists gain more power. Look at any canadian mining stock and see how they move with politics. And yet we know the successful stocks are in those countries that have a bedrock of established, capitalist mining constitutions and comprehensive laws. Look at Brazil, which is dedicated to such a culture, or look at argentina, when the dems come into power, all the stocks go down, as they know this means socialism, a codeword for the obvious. Look at what the Socialists or democrats have done to Venezuela, the stocks have gotten clobbered, along with the people, for obvious reasons, blah blah...
and so far, Joe kabila, for his part, is nicely managing this transition...and btw, it is not always good, to mildly understate things, to not have a powerful chief executive in charge. Read Aristotle's Politics, which will be read for as long as humans are alive. Look at Rome during periods of crisis, when Rome was a republic (this was the years B.C.). Their laws REQUIRED the appointment of one man, whom they called a dictator, to have absolute power in foreign affairs in times of crisis, and even mostly power domestically as well in times of crisis. How often did they appoint one: about ever 3 years for several hundred years, to deal with the need for crisis. And hey, their republic lasted for 700 years.....kind of like the Congo, which any way you cut it, has shown material progress in every way, over the past generation, unlike any before in its history. Western media cannot grasp these concepts through a lack of formal education.
so the socialists leaning types on the other board, every time there is a little western media publicize trouble, they sell their shares, and so many have now lost their positions and their $$$, or what they could have made...so you gotta know politics a little in this sector, to make outsized gains.
Western media, however, wants the transition now to another form of government, which is worrisome to me, but who really knows. He is not perfect, nor has his regime been, as regards the mining sector...but then again, what america has done to the mining sector has been far far worse, destroying many projects that are not hurting the environment, so which country is worse? Still, if the transition does not take place when the lliberals want it to, there will be violence and the stock will take a hit, but not for long. It has always rebounded quickly because, as RF says, the truly great mines always get built, as he is always it seems right.. He is right, and socialists can neither build them, or operate them. Paul Gait thinks congo political risk is a total non factor, he has no more concern for it, other than as a hiccup, than me. Further, Ursus and all the other guys on the other board I respect, and JB here, all appear to feel this is a non issue....so many people have in fact, sold ivanhoe with the least little wiggle from the nefarious "democratic" influences expressing themselves in the congo, and thereby lost so much money, they might have made because of not being able to look outside the box, following the conventional, loser thinking of the Western media, which is always dumb as a rock, as we all know here, current owners that is....
but there are countless other instances of this sort of conventional thinking, like the people on the other board begging this week for an "overdue" news release from management. How silly? But then perhaps they are doing the trader thing, so i can understand, but do traders ever make real money with their pseudo science technical analysis, lol? never, the data is quite clear. ................but let them complain and beg for a news release. who cares...Paul Gait is not begging for a news release...lol
