The season could be characterized as borderline fall or winter depending upon which way the neutral growth indicator moves. In other words the market is at a critical junction.
What has happened is that the re-inflation trade has now turned to the deflation trade.
I have a quarter of my money on the sidelines waiting for neutral growth indicator to move, with 50% in depression loving IEF and 25% in growth loving JNK/HYG moving from HYEM as oil prices has firmed.
If the neutral growth indicator does turn south, I'll move all in to IEF, and begin to monitor SJB.
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