Monday, April 03, 2017 9:44:27 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/31 2017 EOD
Nothing suggest near-term strength today. That would lead me to continued consolidation with a weakening as we continue the down leg I think has begun.
Note that today may be largely the result of a "Friday effect". The one possible exception may be the early relatively very wide spread, $0.7650-$0.7886, through 10:11 before going flat. This means we should have a little scepticism about the indications of all the (un)conventional TA indications.
Keep that in mind while reading.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 2K:400 $0.76/$0.81.
09:30-10:11 opened the day with a 4,668 sell for $0.7677 & $0.7677 x 1. B/a just after open was 4K:400 $0.7650/$0.79. Then came 9:34's b/a 4.1K:100 $0.7650/$0.7898, 9:42's 1.4K $0.7651 (1.2K)/50, 9:43's 400 $0.7804/$0.7650, 9:47's b/a 7.6K:100 $0.7650/$0.7898, 9:47's 1.3K $0.78 (1K)/$0.7650, 9:50's 100 $0.7650, 9:51's 300 $0.7886, 9:55's 1.5K $0.7886 (1K)/$0.7650, 9:56's 100 $0.7650, 10:02's 1.7K $0.7804/$0.7651/50/$0.7774/00/$0.7650, 10:03's 100 $0.7650/10:04's 700 $0.7811/$0.7650, 10:06's 100 $0.7650, 10:07's 200 $0.7752. The period ended on 10:11's 200 $0.7774/$0.7650
10:12-11:38 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7662/$0.7719 after 10:15's 100 $0.7665. B/a at 10:17 was 12.7K:600 $0.7650/$0.78, 10:37 12.8K:200 $0.7650/$0.78, 10:46 17.9K:600 $0.7650/$0.78, 11:07 17.7K:700 $0.7650/$0.78, 11:15 100:200 $0.7654/$0.7725 (bids jiggling 17.7K $0.7650). Volume was interrupted by 11:18's 6.7K $0.7689/$0.7712/00/$0.7689/$0.7712/00/19/$0.7967/$0.7712/$0.7652/$0.7700/12/$0.7652/89. That moved volume and range to extremely low/no-volume $0.7674/$0.7716. B/a at 11:22 was 1.3K:100 $0.7669/$0.7725 (bids rising rapidly). Volume was interrupted by 11:22's 8K $0.77 (6.5K)/$0.7674. B/a at 11:32 was 1.1K:300 $0.7664/$0.7716, 11:47 800:100 $0.7688/9. The period ended on 11:38's 400 $0.7696/$0.7716.
11:39-12:46, after seven no-trades minutes, began $0.7688/9 after 11:46's 3.1K $0.7689/$0.7707/$0.7689 11:47's 2.8K $0.7689/89/8/9. B/a at 11:51 was 900:200 $0.7688/9, 12:11 500:300 $0.7688/9, 12:19 300:400 $0.7688/9. Price and volume were interrupted by 12:27's 2.6K $0.7688/9/$0.78/$0.7650$0.7850/00/50/00/$0.7688. B/a at 12:36 was 400:100 $0.7688/9. The period ended on 12:46's 100 $0.7688.
12:47-13:16, during the initial seven no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:48 of 100:400 $0.7688/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7660/71 on 12:54's 200 $0.7660. B/a at 13:09 was 600:400 $0.7668/89. The period ended on 13:16's 200 $0.7680/9.
13:17-15:47 during the first eighteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:17 of 100:300 $0.7683/89 (bids rising) and 13:34 200:400 $0.7688/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7651/2, with slowly rising range, after 13:35's 19.7K $0.7688/60/89/50/89/50/51. B/a at 13:44 was 100:400 $0.7652/89, 13:50 21:200 $0.7654/89 (bids backed by presented 300 $0.7653), 14:02 221:300 $0.7654/89, 14:22 100:400 $0.7688/9, 14:32 220:500 $0.7688/9, 14:47 233:600 $0.7688/9, 15:02 13:600 $0.7672/89 (bids backed by presented 400 $0.7651), 15:19 700:600 $0.7652/89. Volume was interrupted by 15:30's 2.8K $0.765. B/a at 15:32 1.s 1K:200 $0.7650/89. The period ended on 15:47's 104 $0.7650.
15:48-16:00 began with b/a 800:400 $0.7650/$0.78. Trade began the typical EOD price volatility, but with extremely low/no-volume, $0.7650/$0.7725 on 15:48's 200 $0.7725/$0.7650. B/a at 15:55 was 800:362 $0.7650/$0.78r, 15:59 700:201 $0.7650/$0.78. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.7650/$0.7799 (200)/$0.7650 and 16:00's 750 $0.7650 sell.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 3 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 16,088, 18.16% of day's volume, with a $0.7669 VWAP. Considering trade volume I guess the larger trades count is reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is very low. The VWAP is below the day's $0.7682, suggesting these were likely MMs or shorters doing covering buys.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the lows are still honoring the short-term support (rising green line added on last new chart) and still have a small, but slowly shrinking, gap down to the line right now. The highs, after holding flattish for two days, lost the battle today and retreated substantially from the potential resistance (horizontal white line).
This may be the appearance of yesterday's prediction: { ... we are likely to see some kind of larger movement within the next week or so as the trading enters the time-frame [when a move typical becomes likely] of the rising triangle formed by the rising support and [the] resistance lines. History would suggest that we would see price retreat and if not for the two recent PRs might have even done so before now. }
This may also be nothing more than a "Friday effect" and may mean we should discount yesterday's { The declining volume leaves in place, for the third [now fourth] consecutive day, my assertion that ... there is insufficient strength demonstrated, in light of the PR especially, for the up leg to continue for long. }
The fast EMA's ascent, after two days of rising, gave up today and fell a half-penny to $0.7703 and is now only $0.0073 above the still-rising slow EMA. The slow EMA's return to an increasing rate of ascent, which had stopped yesterday, rose only $0.0002 after rising $0.0030 and $0.0026 the prior two days. The fast EMA decreased the gap above the slow, going from yesterday's $0.0122 above to now $0.0073 above. I had said over the last couple days { ... I don't expect it to hold above either for very long though is still my thinking. } No change in my thinking for now.
The day's range was is no longer completely above the rising mid-point, $0.7671 (was $0.7631), of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. The mild positive indication is gone, but it's not a traditional indicator and I don't consider it strongly indicative, especially with the possibility that today is mostly a "Friday effect".
The important thing, I think, is what happens the first couple days next week. If we get some volume and the low doesn't go challenge the rising support, rising green line, the leg-down scope may be limited and another challenge to the $0.82/3 resistance might be likely. If the rising support doesn't hold then I think we'll go challenge the rising medium-term support (rising orange line), that is currently ~$0.71 and, IIRC, rising about $0.001/week (too lazy to go double check). If we do challenge I expect it would hold as it's longer-term and well tested. That view could change if enough deterioration in other factors materializes.
On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA, continued rising, now nine of ten days. The 20-day SMA again rose slightly today to $0.7513 from $0.7511. The gap down to the 20-day has moved from $0.0023 to $0.0007, $0.0004, back up to $0.0012, and now $0.0026. The 10-day is still rising, but more slowly, and is above both.
Needless to say, I'm still suspicious of the possibility we'll get the 20-day above the 50, based on the widening gap between the two, but that continuation of the widening could be a "Friday effect". I'm thinking that's not the case though.
If we hold here we'll get 2 day (was 2) of rising 10-day SMA, a rise for 1 (was decline 2) days vacillate a few days before doing a decline a couple days. The 20-day would have 8 days (was 11) of rise, 2 days (was 2) of decline, and also vacillate a few days before starting a decline. The 50-day will rise 6 (was 7) days if we hold here and then do a short down leg into the short "waves" of rising and falling. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down waves.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement RSI, Williams %R, and full stochastic. Deterioration occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related.
Today had deterioration in every oscillator. Only RSI is above neutral - all others are below neutral. None are oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7295 and $0.8037 ($0.7185 and $0.8078 yesterday), stopped converging and are now diverging with a falling mid-point.
All in, if all this is not pure "Friday effect", near-term weakness continuing the leg down within consolidation seems most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but both moved to excessive lows, not good. "Friday effect"? If not, this is a big negative.
The spread contracted into a range suggesting sideways consolidation but I'm pretty sure this is a "Friday effect".
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the fourth consecutive day at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 02/27 is $0.0381, 5.22%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960%, 0.0971%, -0.2042%, -0.0667%, -0.1655%, -0.1595%, 0.2282%, and 0.3424%. Two days back I thought maybe the two positives could get a trend started, but the degree of improvement was weakening. It improved today but one day doesn't make a trend.
All in, nothing here suggests near-term strength. Since weakening began before the "Friday effect", I'm leaning towards the consolidation with continued weakening in a down leg as most likely.
Bill
Nothing suggest near-term strength today. That would lead me to continued consolidation with a weakening as we continue the down leg I think has begun.
Note that today may be largely the result of a "Friday effect". The one possible exception may be the early relatively very wide spread, $0.7650-$0.7886, through 10:11 before going flat. This means we should have a little scepticism about the indications of all the (un)conventional TA indications.
Keep that in mind while reading.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 2K:400 $0.76/$0.81.
09:30-10:11 opened the day with a 4,668 sell for $0.7677 & $0.7677 x 1. B/a just after open was 4K:400 $0.7650/$0.79. Then came 9:34's b/a 4.1K:100 $0.7650/$0.7898, 9:42's 1.4K $0.7651 (1.2K)/50, 9:43's 400 $0.7804/$0.7650, 9:47's b/a 7.6K:100 $0.7650/$0.7898, 9:47's 1.3K $0.78 (1K)/$0.7650, 9:50's 100 $0.7650, 9:51's 300 $0.7886, 9:55's 1.5K $0.7886 (1K)/$0.7650, 9:56's 100 $0.7650, 10:02's 1.7K $0.7804/$0.7651/50/$0.7774/00/$0.7650, 10:03's 100 $0.7650/10:04's 700 $0.7811/$0.7650, 10:06's 100 $0.7650, 10:07's 200 $0.7752. The period ended on 10:11's 200 $0.7774/$0.7650
10:12-11:38 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7662/$0.7719 after 10:15's 100 $0.7665. B/a at 10:17 was 12.7K:600 $0.7650/$0.78, 10:37 12.8K:200 $0.7650/$0.78, 10:46 17.9K:600 $0.7650/$0.78, 11:07 17.7K:700 $0.7650/$0.78, 11:15 100:200 $0.7654/$0.7725 (bids jiggling 17.7K $0.7650). Volume was interrupted by 11:18's 6.7K $0.7689/$0.7712/00/$0.7689/$0.7712/00/19/$0.7967/$0.7712/$0.7652/$0.7700/12/$0.7652/89. That moved volume and range to extremely low/no-volume $0.7674/$0.7716. B/a at 11:22 was 1.3K:100 $0.7669/$0.7725 (bids rising rapidly). Volume was interrupted by 11:22's 8K $0.77 (6.5K)/$0.7674. B/a at 11:32 was 1.1K:300 $0.7664/$0.7716, 11:47 800:100 $0.7688/9. The period ended on 11:38's 400 $0.7696/$0.7716.
11:39-12:46, after seven no-trades minutes, began $0.7688/9 after 11:46's 3.1K $0.7689/$0.7707/$0.7689 11:47's 2.8K $0.7689/89/8/9. B/a at 11:51 was 900:200 $0.7688/9, 12:11 500:300 $0.7688/9, 12:19 300:400 $0.7688/9. Price and volume were interrupted by 12:27's 2.6K $0.7688/9/$0.78/$0.7650$0.7850/00/50/00/$0.7688. B/a at 12:36 was 400:100 $0.7688/9. The period ended on 12:46's 100 $0.7688.
12:47-13:16, during the initial seven no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:48 of 100:400 $0.7688/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7660/71 on 12:54's 200 $0.7660. B/a at 13:09 was 600:400 $0.7668/89. The period ended on 13:16's 200 $0.7680/9.
13:17-15:47 during the first eighteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 13:17 of 100:300 $0.7683/89 (bids rising) and 13:34 200:400 $0.7688/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7651/2, with slowly rising range, after 13:35's 19.7K $0.7688/60/89/50/89/50/51. B/a at 13:44 was 100:400 $0.7652/89, 13:50 21:200 $0.7654/89 (bids backed by presented 300 $0.7653), 14:02 221:300 $0.7654/89, 14:22 100:400 $0.7688/9, 14:32 220:500 $0.7688/9, 14:47 233:600 $0.7688/9, 15:02 13:600 $0.7672/89 (bids backed by presented 400 $0.7651), 15:19 700:600 $0.7652/89. Volume was interrupted by 15:30's 2.8K $0.765. B/a at 15:32 1.s 1K:200 $0.7650/89. The period ended on 15:47's 104 $0.7650.
15:48-16:00 began with b/a 800:400 $0.7650/$0.78. Trade began the typical EOD price volatility, but with extremely low/no-volume, $0.7650/$0.7725 on 15:48's 200 $0.7725/$0.7650. B/a at 15:55 was 800:362 $0.7650/$0.78r, 15:59 700:201 $0.7650/$0.78. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.5K $0.7650/$0.7799 (200)/$0.7650 and 16:00's 750 $0.7650 sell.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 3 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 16,088, 18.16% of day's volume, with a $0.7669 VWAP. Considering trade volume I guess the larger trades count is reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is very low. The VWAP is below the day's $0.7682, suggesting these were likely MMs or shorters doing covering buys.
The VWAP movement seems unusually disconnected from the buy percentage moments today. Might be a "Friday effect" but I also suspect that it is the continuation of the manifestation of the beginning of a down-leg within the consolidation I believe we're in that seems to have begun yesterday (see movements following).Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:11 15187 $0.7650 $0.7886 $11,703.30 $0.7706 17.15% 15.27%
11:38 18653 $0.7650 $0.7725 $14,353.08 $0.7695 21.06% 43.25% Incl 11:22 $0.7700 6,188
13:35 $0.7650 5,000 4,900
12:46 12975 $0.7688 $0.7850 $9,999.36 $0.7707 14.65% 42.91%
13:16 1300 $0.7660 $0.7689 $996.87 $0.7668 1.47% 41.81%
15:47 35071 $0.7650 $0.7689 $26,850.78 $0.7656 39.60% 28.24%
16:00 4450 $0.7650 $0.7799 $3,421.15 $0.7688 5.02% 27.92%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Two consecutive days of weakening suggests this may not be all "Friday effect". It seems to me our down-leg, with the usual perturbations, is under-way.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.58% 0.00% -3.81% -1.97% -35.68%
Prior -4.88% -1.92% -0.02% 0.05% -55.09%%
On my minimal chart the lows are still honoring the short-term support (rising green line added on last new chart) and still have a small, but slowly shrinking, gap down to the line right now. The highs, after holding flattish for two days, lost the battle today and retreated substantially from the potential resistance (horizontal white line).
This may be the appearance of yesterday's prediction: { ... we are likely to see some kind of larger movement within the next week or so as the trading enters the time-frame [when a move typical becomes likely] of the rising triangle formed by the rising support and [the] resistance lines. History would suggest that we would see price retreat and if not for the two recent PRs might have even done so before now. }
This may also be nothing more than a "Friday effect" and may mean we should discount yesterday's { The declining volume leaves in place, for the third [now fourth] consecutive day, my assertion that ... there is insufficient strength demonstrated, in light of the PR especially, for the up leg to continue for long. }
The fast EMA's ascent, after two days of rising, gave up today and fell a half-penny to $0.7703 and is now only $0.0073 above the still-rising slow EMA. The slow EMA's return to an increasing rate of ascent, which had stopped yesterday, rose only $0.0002 after rising $0.0030 and $0.0026 the prior two days. The fast EMA decreased the gap above the slow, going from yesterday's $0.0122 above to now $0.0073 above. I had said over the last couple days { ... I don't expect it to hold above either for very long though is still my thinking. } No change in my thinking for now.
The day's range was is no longer completely above the rising mid-point, $0.7671 (was $0.7631), of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band. The mild positive indication is gone, but it's not a traditional indicator and I don't consider it strongly indicative, especially with the possibility that today is mostly a "Friday effect".
The important thing, I think, is what happens the first couple days next week. If we get some volume and the low doesn't go challenge the rising support, rising green line, the leg-down scope may be limited and another challenge to the $0.82/3 resistance might be likely. If the rising support doesn't hold then I think we'll go challenge the rising medium-term support (rising orange line), that is currently ~$0.71 and, IIRC, rising about $0.001/week (too lazy to go double check). If we do challenge I expect it would hold as it's longer-term and well tested. That view could change if enough deterioration in other factors materializes.
On my one-year chart the 200-day SMA continued falling. The 50-day SMA, continued rising, now nine of ten days. The 20-day SMA again rose slightly today to $0.7513 from $0.7511. The gap down to the 20-day has moved from $0.0023 to $0.0007, $0.0004, back up to $0.0012, and now $0.0026. The 10-day is still rising, but more slowly, and is above both.
Needless to say, I'm still suspicious of the possibility we'll get the 20-day above the 50, based on the widening gap between the two, but that continuation of the widening could be a "Friday effect". I'm thinking that's not the case though.
If we hold here we'll get 2 day (was 2) of rising 10-day SMA, a rise for 1 (was decline 2) days vacillate a few days before doing a decline a couple days. The 20-day would have 8 days (was 11) of rise, 2 days (was 2) of decline, and also vacillate a few days before starting a decline. The 50-day will rise 6 (was 7) days if we hold here and then do a short down leg into the short "waves" of rising and falling. As always, of course we won't just "hold here" - we'll be doing normal up/down waves.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement RSI, Williams %R, and full stochastic. Deterioration occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and ADX-related.
Today had deterioration in every oscillator. Only RSI is above neutral - all others are below neutral. None are oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7295 and $0.8037 ($0.7185 and $0.8078 yesterday), stopped converging and are now diverging with a falling mid-point.
All in, if all this is not pure "Friday effect", near-term weakness continuing the leg down within consolidation seems most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but both moved to excessive lows, not good. "Friday effect"? If not, this is a big negative.
The spread contracted into a range suggesting sideways consolidation but I'm pretty sure this is a "Friday effect".
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the fourth consecutive day at 12 negatives and 12 positives. Change since 02/27 is $0.0381, 5.22%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2365%, 0.1802%, 0.1960%, 0.0971%, -0.2042%, -0.0667%, -0.1655%, -0.1595%, 0.2282%, and 0.3424%. Two days back I thought maybe the two positives could get a trend started, but the degree of improvement was weakening. It improved today but one day doesn't make a trend.
All in, nothing here suggests near-term strength. Since weakening began before the "Friday effect", I'm leaning towards the consolidation with continued weakening in a down leg as most likely.
Bill
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