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Sunday, April 02, 2017 9:22:31 AM
Amateur Investors: Weekend Analysis
* April 1, 2017
There are many out there that follow Elliot Wave Analysis. Currently those that follow Elliot Wave Theory believe the market should continue higher. As you can see below there does appear to be a bullish 5 Wave affair from the early 2009 low. Furthermore the move up from the early 2016 low would be the final wave (5th wave).
Meanwhile by definition Waves 1, 3 and 5 should be composed of 5 smaller sub waves. Looking at the past year it's not clear whether Wave iii of 5 has completed or not. If it hasn't then we could see one more slightly higher high before sub waves iv and v occur to complete the final 5th wave. The target for the 5th wave would probably be around 2600 in the S&P 500.
As I have showed above, in theory, the S&P 500 should continue higher. However, in the past, significant market tops or bottoms haven't always ended in a traditional 5 wave pattern. Let's start with the period from late 2007 through early 2009. Notice there was a 5 Wave correction from the late 2007 peak.
However the final 5th wave didn't have 5 smaller sub waves as sub waves iv and v never occurred. Thus this is why many, in early 2009, thought the S&P 500 would go even lower before a bottomed occurred which didn't happen.
Next let's look at the market action leading up to the top in late 2007. Notice the wave action looked more like an "abc" affair leading up to the top in October of 2007.
Furthermore if we look at the period preceding the 2000 top, in the S&P 500, notice it also had an "abc" type affair as well.
Finally, as mentioned in the beginning, although Elliot Wave Theory suggests the S&P 500 should rally up to the 2600 level that doesn't mean it will. One potential scenario to be on the lookout for is that an "abc" type affair is evolving from the early 2016 low. In this scenario the S&P 500 would make one more slightly higher high to complete "c" around 2440 if the length of "c" = the length of "a".
http://www.amateur-investors.com/AII_Weekend_AnalysisApril_1_17.htm
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
* April 1, 2017
There are many out there that follow Elliot Wave Analysis. Currently those that follow Elliot Wave Theory believe the market should continue higher. As you can see below there does appear to be a bullish 5 Wave affair from the early 2009 low. Furthermore the move up from the early 2016 low would be the final wave (5th wave).
Meanwhile by definition Waves 1, 3 and 5 should be composed of 5 smaller sub waves. Looking at the past year it's not clear whether Wave iii of 5 has completed or not. If it hasn't then we could see one more slightly higher high before sub waves iv and v occur to complete the final 5th wave. The target for the 5th wave would probably be around 2600 in the S&P 500.
As I have showed above, in theory, the S&P 500 should continue higher. However, in the past, significant market tops or bottoms haven't always ended in a traditional 5 wave pattern. Let's start with the period from late 2007 through early 2009. Notice there was a 5 Wave correction from the late 2007 peak.
However the final 5th wave didn't have 5 smaller sub waves as sub waves iv and v never occurred. Thus this is why many, in early 2009, thought the S&P 500 would go even lower before a bottomed occurred which didn't happen.
Next let's look at the market action leading up to the top in late 2007. Notice the wave action looked more like an "abc" affair leading up to the top in October of 2007.
Furthermore if we look at the period preceding the 2000 top, in the S&P 500, notice it also had an "abc" type affair as well.
Finally, as mentioned in the beginning, although Elliot Wave Theory suggests the S&P 500 should rally up to the 2600 level that doesn't mean it will. One potential scenario to be on the lookout for is that an "abc" type affair is evolving from the early 2016 low. In this scenario the S&P 500 would make one more slightly higher high to complete "c" around 2440 if the length of "c" = the length of "a".
http://www.amateur-investors.com/AII_Weekend_AnalysisApril_1_17.htm
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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