Hi scubasteve.
It appears that your experience with biotech investing and your obvious hobby have both put you "underwater".
The only problem I have with your message is that it is completely based upon generalizations. While it is important to take those under consideration, there also happen to be exceptions. I have found that the biggest profits can be made by finding the exceptions. AND, if you can find the exception where the shorts are betting against it and you happen to end up being right, the profits can be HUGE.
What we already know for sure is that knee problems exist and will continue to exist and effect a large part of the population. We also know that current solutions are not totally adequate. Microfracture is not completely satisfactory nor permanent. Total Knee replacement is something most in the medical industry don't seem to want to do until over 50. That leaves a very big gap that MACI could fill. If it only gets a tiny percentage of what is now going towards Microfrature and TKR, it would justify a share price many times todays.
Of course, risk v reward must also be taken into consideration. At this point, I think the downside is probably limited to .25 to .30 while the upside can be at minimum a double. After all, MACI is already approved so that risk is gone. The company has already proved that Carticel could produce about $40M in revenues. MACI is approved for more procedure areas, is simpler, and has better results. So it seems very likely at worst that it will produce significantly more revenue than Carticel. That alone justifies the current share price. Than add in increased Epicel revenues because of the approval for expanded use and it looks like as close to a sure thing as exists in the market.
So the only thing against owning VCEL now is the time factor. Can the money be put towards something more sure with faster potential upside. The problem with that is that announcement of an ixCell partnership could cause a 50% jump in the price in a flash. And while shorts are betting on MACI revenues taking a long time to come in, the true indicator is biopsies. I think they must have missed Colangelo's pronouncement at the earnings release that biopsies were already up 24% ove last year.
So although your previous experience with this stock has not been great, things do change. Just ask a Cubs fan.
