Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[AngeloFoca]

We've debated here as to what we can expect Rexista to capture in sales... and that it would be a slow process and heavily dependent on marketing etc.

I propose that "possibly" it will not be at all the case... and that capturing 20% of the market can happen easily and within a year.

Unlike Pfizer's Troxyca, Collegium's Extampa, Egalet's Arymo... IPCI's Rexista is BIOEQUIVALENT to OxyContin... that's right... it can market itself as a OxyContin GENERIC...

I was looking for a post from last week that stated the stats on sales of Seroquel XR by the 180 day exclusivity holder - ???Accord, PAR, Handel??? - but I can't find it so I'm going by memory.

I believe it stated that it had captured over 50% of the market share from Astra Zeneca... and market size came down to perhaps 70% ?

We also know that PAR with it's 180 day exclusivity on the 15mg and 30 mg Focalin XR captured 43% of the market from Novartis... and market size decreased to ~ 70% ?

Using those stats which are true to life... I think we can comfortably assume that Rexista XR should be able to capture - relatively quickly - at least 20% of the $2 billion OxyContin market - although it will likely do it at 70% the cost of OxyContin... so market will likely come down to ~ 1.4 Billion $.

Of course it sounds like a "pie in the sky" post... but WHY would the Focalin XR and Seroquel XR generics be able to capture half of the branded market and why would Rexista XR... essentially a generic OxyContin not be able to capture the same share or at least 20% right out of the gate.

20% of $1.4 Billion = $280 million to IPCI and partner - a fair share 30% to IPCI would = $84 million... ALL WITHIN A YEAR ! ! !