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• • • Weekly Market Summary • • •
By Urban Carmel | March 25, 2017

Summary: US indices have fallen nearly every day since the FOMC raised the federal funds rate on March 15th. This week, the SPX also experienced its first 1% daily loss in 109 days, bringing one of the longest such streaks in history to an end. There are a number of reasons to expect equities to be at or near a point of reversal higher. A retest of the recent high is likely.

That said, it's a good guess that the market's period of smooth, persistent strength over the past 4-5 months has come to an end. Higher volatility and more days with 1% losses (and 1% gains) lie ahead.

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After a strong start to the year, the US indices have turned weak. Since the FOMC raised the federal funds rate on March 15, SPX has closed lower 6 days and higher only once. The 13-ema is now declining, indicating that the intermediate trend is down. There has been no reversal in price, yet, but there are several reasons to believe that a reversal may be near.

On Tuesday, after 109 days, the S&P finally fell more than 1% during one trading day. This was the third longest streak without a 1% loss in the past 36 years.

The charts below look at the 5 prior times since 1980 that SPX went more than 95 days without a 1% fall. It's a small sample but there is a consistent pattern: the index rallies at least 2-5% in the ensuing weeks. Within 2 weeks, SPX was back at its prior high 4 times. The one exception was 1993, which was also the only time that SPX was below its 50-dma; even then, it returned to its high within 2 months. In the other 4 instances, SPX was above its 50-dma, like now. Enlarge any chart by clicking on it. . .

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2017/03/weekly-market-summary.html

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