Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[Meishairwin]

fbg0316, you ask a reasonable question: "what you think of the fact that the IBB is hovering around its 52 week high while ADXS is, as a matter of fact, closer to its 52 week low currently."

Two things. First, IBB is not the best metric for small immunotherapy biotechs because it is heavily weighted to big pharma. XBI is a better comparator because it is more heavily weighted to smaller biotechs (but still not a great comparison). However, XBI is also close to a 52 week high, so your point would hold. An even better comparator is Brad Loncar's Immunotherapy Index (http://www.loncarindex.com/), but it, too, is within 10% of its 52 week high.

Second, you cannot expect any individual small pre-revenue biotech to mimic ANY index. Small pre-revenue biotechs trade on NEWS and liquidity that affords trading/ short selling, not very much on general sentiment (except for the silly share price increases of many small pre-revenue biotechs ~Jan-July 2015).

ADXS's technology (the Lm platform) is an outlier technology that virtually no one in the investor community (the big money) understands. If you were a PhD/MD biotech analyst, would you spend your time learning everything about viral vectors and CAR-T that would help you understand 20-30 small pre-revenue biotechs or would you spend your time learning about listeria bacteria, which will help you understand 2 small pre-revenue biotechs?

Next, despite what we think, LITTLE IS KNOWN about the Lm platform from a clinical perspective. Sure, we have pretty good Ph2 results, but there are dozens of cancer therapies that have "looked good" in Ph2 only to fall apart in Ph3. Our results are good, but not revolutionary.

You might fault DOC on the slow Aratana/ PETX implementation, but the FDA (or is it some other agency) threw a monkey wrench into that deal saying a "field trial" was needed. Aratana obviously did not want to rush headlong into that (with the attendant spending and risk). Not sure we had a better option, though, and it was a brilliant idea. So, I for one do not fault DOC on that.

Bottom line, you somehow think that ADXS share price should advance on a schedule you think appropriate. However, few, if any, small pre-revenue biotech's have their share prices go into the billions prior to Ph3 trial results. A few do, yes. But, most do not. ADXS is like most.

As I said in my previous post, we have at least 12-24 months to go before I would start expecting ADXS market cap to move towards $1B or more. We need Ph3 results and we need multiple other Ph1/ Ph2 trial results, especially combo trials. That's gonna take much more money than we have -- so another $100M-$200M dilution is needed (or partnerships -- but they are "back-end" dilution, so pick your poison: front-end share dilution or back-end revenue/ profit dilution).

I understand the frustration many on this board who have been invested in ADXS for 5 or 10 years must feel, but all the evidence is we need to wait for another 1-2 years. We're on a solid track from a business progress perspective, which can be gauged by fund raising (more the better) and clinical progress. Share price means NOTHING in the interim in light of these other two metrics.

So, stop harping on share price. This is not an index, this is not a BP whose share price should increase somewhat consistently over time. This is a pre-revenue small biotech with unusual and unproven technology. When the share price increases, it will increase violently in response to news.

GLTA!