Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT)

[staccani]

Market size and market cap
Even without considering NASH Fibrosis, Even without considering extension outside NASH to other liver disease etiologies, even without considering High Risk Cirrhotic compensated patients with Severe Portal Pressure, even without considering countries other than US and EU, even without considering conditions outside Liver, just considering NASH Cirrhotic decompensated patients with high MELD score (patients whose unfortunately only unlikely hope is transplant and for which no other drugs is under development other than Emricasan), you still have at least hundred thousand patients who will take what could be a
life saving therapy. This therapy could fetch as much as $100K per annum per patient similarly to target/immunotherapy cancer drugs where the risk of death is similar. That would probably mean $10B revenue pwe annum or $25B market cap (based on 20-25% avg royalties) or $1,000 PPS.
And again that is just for the NASH Cirrhosis decompensated patients in US and EU only, a tiny fraction of Emricasan addressable global market. Basically for each word 1) NASH, 2) DECOMPENSATED, 3) LIVER 4) CIRRHOTIC, 5) EU&US segment you have multiple additional addressable markets by changing and combining each one of those 5 dimensions