Thursday, March 16, 2017 6:43:37 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/14 2017 EOD
Nothing here strongly suggests near-term upside is likely. The very low volume does suggest no strength in the weakness seen and expected near-term.
Today's behavior, after the common early bounce up and down, was a long, extremely low/no-volume, decline into the close, where the low of the day was set.
There were two pre-market trades, $0.7217 x 100 and $0.7220 x 100.
B/a just before open was 100:500 $0.7201/$0.7899.
09:30-13:58 opened the day with a 2,446 buy for $0.75 & $0.75 x 73, $0.7325 x 10. B/a just after open was 40:393 $0.7325/$0.76. Then came 9:38's b/a 400:93 $0.73/6, 9:39's 2.8K $0.7322/00, 9:42's 5.9K $0.7596 (1.5K)/$0.73, 9:43's 140 $0.7310, 9:489's b/a 400:416 $0.7310/$0.75, 9:48's 1.8K $0.7499/$0.75/$0.7310, 9:53's 200 $0.75, 9:56's b/a 200:300 $0.7310/$0.75, 10:02's b/a 400:300 $0.7310/$0.75, 10:02's 3.7K $0.74, 10:10's b/a 400:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 10:10's 100 $0.7499, 10:17's b/a 400:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 10:21's 100 $0.7498, 10:25's 200 $0.7477.
There were no trades 10:26-:59 and offers continued slowly declining. Then came 10:32's b/a 400:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 10:47'd b/a 600:800 $0.73/$0.7477, 11:00's 510 $0.7335/00, 11:02's b/a 300:2.2K $0.73/$0.7437, 11:04's 6.9K $0.7315 (6K)/00, 11:09's 100 $0.7437, 11:10's 100 $0.7437, 11:12's 135 $0.7403, 11:15's 100 $0.73, 11:17's b/a 300:2.3K $0.73/$0.7437, 11:20's 100 $0.7437, 11:32's b/a 200:2.2K $0.73/$0.7437, 11:37's 145 $0.7437.
There were no trades 11:38-12:24. 11:47's b/a was 200:2.2K $0.73/$0.7437, 12:02 3.1K:400 $0.73/$0.7437, 12:17 3.1K:400 $0.73/$0.7437. Then came 12:25's 100 $0.73, 12:32's 1K $0.73, 12:32's b/a 2.9K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 12:47's b/a 2.9K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 12:47's 100 $0.7437, 13:02's b/a 2.7K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 13:13's 340 $0.7340, 13:17's b/a 2.6K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 13:26's 700 $0.73, 13:32's b/a 3.2K:500 $0.73/$0.7437, 13:34's 10.9K $0.7301/00/11 (5K)/00, 13:38's 500 $0.73, 13:50's 100 $0.7426, 13:52's b/a 500:1.1K $0.73/$0.7437, and the period ended on 13:58's 100 $0.7437.
13:59-15:52, during the first five no-trades minutes had 14:03's b/a 500:1.3K $0.73/$0.7437. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7250/$0.7399 ??:?? on 14:04's 700 $0.7309/00/$0.7295/50. B/a at 14:05 was 100:500 $0.7295/$0.7399, 14:08 2.5K:500 $0.7250/$0.7399. Volume was interrupted by 14:12's11.5K $0.7250 (incl 10K blk). B/a at 14:17 was 2K:300 $0.7250/$0.7399, 14:32 2.2K:300 $0.7250/$0.7399, 14:47 2K:300 $0.7250/$0.7399, 15:02 2.1K:500 $0.7250/$0.7399, 15:17 2K:500 $0.7250/$0.7399. Volume was interrupted by 15:27's 5.7K $0.7301 (4.9K)/20/00/$0.7250. B/a at 15:29 was 2K:900 $0.7250/$0.7398, 15:47 2K:700 $0.7250/$0.7398. The period ended on 15:52's 4.8K $0.7275/50/$0.73/$0.7250.
15:53-16:00 began low/medium-volume $0.7200/78 on 15:53's 2K $0.7260/01. B/a at 15:55 was 7.3K:2.8K $0.7200/88, 15:59 7.3K:2.8K $0.7200/98. The period and day ended and closed on 15:59's 400 $0.72 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade, just a 17-share odd-lot $0.73, which is not permitted to be the official close.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 31,004, 39.93% of day's volume, with a $0.7337 VWAP. For the volume, I guess the count is reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is high and the VWAP is above the day's $0.7327, suggesting either some shorters or MMs doing covering buys or some retail folks that liked the PR and are bullish were adding to their long positions.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, our range today was just below the descending consolidation triangle's resistance (descending red line). Range was well above the triangle base and the rising medium-term potential support (orange line).
The weakness indicated by a high open and lower close, and the intra-day behavior, is not supported by the volume, which was both extremely low and declining. The bad part of that is that prices are easily moved by those with the desire and means (e.g. MMs, shorters) so that if someone wants, e.g., better covering prices, relatively little money has to be deployed, in the form of shorts or distribution, to move price lower where large profits can then be locked in.
The fast and slow EMS continue to weaken and the fast EMA is still below the slow, although by a slightly small margin, $0.0167.
Most of the day's range was above the declining mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band.
In aggregate, we did get some of what has been hoped for, and called for during the prior several days - a continuation of the leg-up that began two days ago. It wasn't a big continuation though and as we approach the descending resistance we should expect at least hesitation if not outright reversal to a leg lower. This "hesitation" should continue the low volume, although slightly higher volume would be no surprise if shorters decide covering buys look attractive.
On my one-year chart, with the apparent help of the PR, it looked yesterday like the pull up and away from the long-term descending support (former resistance) line began. If we can just at least remain flat the odds become greater that if later we do sag we will not get back to that line as other support points may come into play.
The 200-day SMA continued falling. I had mentioned a few days back that the 50-day should shortly begin a rise, predicated on the end of price decline. Well, two days back we still had price decline but it was so small that the 50-day SMA was almost flat, moving lower only 11/100ths of a penny from the prior day. The decline yesterday was only 1/100th of a penny. I noted that with any positive move we should get our first cross to rising.
Today the 50-day SMA began to rise. If we hold here we'll get 1 day of continued rise before declining 9 days and then rising 5 days. I don't expect us to remain static and with my recent view in mind of an up-leg beginning I think it will be just a few days and we'll have a more consistent rise appear.
The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued declining. The 10-day held steady at 1.9 cents below the 20-day. As mentioned yesterday, unless the price leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely, it will take longer to get the 10-day back above the 20. Yesterday was a good start, but we need something sustained for a while.
If we hold here we'll get 4 (was 1 rising) day of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 14 (was 1 rising) days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will rise 1 day (was 3) and then begin a series of "waves" of declines and rises. Of course, we won't just "hold here". The 200-day would fall ~153 (was ~153) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (entered oversold), and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), and full stochastic (exited oversold).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6937 and $0.7774 ($0.6914 and $0.7903 yesterday), converged for the second day. The mid-point is falling. Trade range was a small bit above that mid-point.
All in, the mixed signals of the oscillators, suggesting weakness, unsupported by volume, suggesting no strength to the downside, mixed in with the OLHC improvements, but for the close, and the buy percentage overshot being less severe, and on lower volume, than the prior drop from excessive highs, leaves me thinking that near-term downside is limited and unlikely. More likely is consolidation and/or the continuation of the up-leg we've been working on.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, especially good in light of yesterday's excessive buy percentage. The short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage is less deeply into "no upside possible" territory than the last time we came off an excessive buy percentage. It's still too low to suggest anything positive and does suggest near-term weakness.
The spread contracted again to be just above what I consider suggests consolidation. It was produced by a fairly constant long, extremely low/no-volume decline throughout the day, after the initial low/high early action, that set the day's low at the close. The contraction, which would be a positive, is offset by the intra-day behavior, decidedly negative.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 12 negatives and 12 positives for the second consecutive day. Change since 02/07 is $0.0178, 2.50%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, and 0.2341%.
All in, I just can't find enough agreement with the short percentage improvement to see any near-term strong positives here. I do find several things suggesting near-term weakness - how the spread was produced, the low buy percentage and the VWAP weakening. Volume being down ~55.6% adds to the negative view, in one respect, but provides optimism in the other. The volume does not suggest strength in the down move.
Bill
Nothing here strongly suggests near-term upside is likely. The very low volume does suggest no strength in the weakness seen and expected near-term.
Today's behavior, after the common early bounce up and down, was a long, extremely low/no-volume, decline into the close, where the low of the day was set.
There were two pre-market trades, $0.7217 x 100 and $0.7220 x 100.
B/a just before open was 100:500 $0.7201/$0.7899.
09:30-13:58 opened the day with a 2,446 buy for $0.75 & $0.75 x 73, $0.7325 x 10. B/a just after open was 40:393 $0.7325/$0.76. Then came 9:38's b/a 400:93 $0.73/6, 9:39's 2.8K $0.7322/00, 9:42's 5.9K $0.7596 (1.5K)/$0.73, 9:43's 140 $0.7310, 9:489's b/a 400:416 $0.7310/$0.75, 9:48's 1.8K $0.7499/$0.75/$0.7310, 9:53's 200 $0.75, 9:56's b/a 200:300 $0.7310/$0.75, 10:02's b/a 400:300 $0.7310/$0.75, 10:02's 3.7K $0.74, 10:10's b/a 400:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 10:10's 100 $0.7499, 10:17's b/a 400:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 10:21's 100 $0.7498, 10:25's 200 $0.7477.
There were no trades 10:26-:59 and offers continued slowly declining. Then came 10:32's b/a 400:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 10:47'd b/a 600:800 $0.73/$0.7477, 11:00's 510 $0.7335/00, 11:02's b/a 300:2.2K $0.73/$0.7437, 11:04's 6.9K $0.7315 (6K)/00, 11:09's 100 $0.7437, 11:10's 100 $0.7437, 11:12's 135 $0.7403, 11:15's 100 $0.73, 11:17's b/a 300:2.3K $0.73/$0.7437, 11:20's 100 $0.7437, 11:32's b/a 200:2.2K $0.73/$0.7437, 11:37's 145 $0.7437.
There were no trades 11:38-12:24. 11:47's b/a was 200:2.2K $0.73/$0.7437, 12:02 3.1K:400 $0.73/$0.7437, 12:17 3.1K:400 $0.73/$0.7437. Then came 12:25's 100 $0.73, 12:32's 1K $0.73, 12:32's b/a 2.9K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 12:47's b/a 2.9K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 12:47's 100 $0.7437, 13:02's b/a 2.7K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 13:13's 340 $0.7340, 13:17's b/a 2.6K:200 $0.73/$0.7437, 13:26's 700 $0.73, 13:32's b/a 3.2K:500 $0.73/$0.7437, 13:34's 10.9K $0.7301/00/11 (5K)/00, 13:38's 500 $0.73, 13:50's 100 $0.7426, 13:52's b/a 500:1.1K $0.73/$0.7437, and the period ended on 13:58's 100 $0.7437.
13:59-15:52, during the first five no-trades minutes had 14:03's b/a 500:1.3K $0.73/$0.7437. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7250/$0.7399 ??:?? on 14:04's 700 $0.7309/00/$0.7295/50. B/a at 14:05 was 100:500 $0.7295/$0.7399, 14:08 2.5K:500 $0.7250/$0.7399. Volume was interrupted by 14:12's11.5K $0.7250 (incl 10K blk). B/a at 14:17 was 2K:300 $0.7250/$0.7399, 14:32 2.2K:300 $0.7250/$0.7399, 14:47 2K:300 $0.7250/$0.7399, 15:02 2.1K:500 $0.7250/$0.7399, 15:17 2K:500 $0.7250/$0.7399. Volume was interrupted by 15:27's 5.7K $0.7301 (4.9K)/20/00/$0.7250. B/a at 15:29 was 2K:900 $0.7250/$0.7398, 15:47 2K:700 $0.7250/$0.7398. The period ended on 15:52's 4.8K $0.7275/50/$0.73/$0.7250.
15:53-16:00 began low/medium-volume $0.7200/78 on 15:53's 2K $0.7260/01. B/a at 15:55 was 7.3K:2.8K $0.7200/88, 15:59 7.3K:2.8K $0.7200/98. The period and day ended and closed on 15:59's 400 $0.72 because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade, just a 17-share odd-lot $0.73, which is not permitted to be the official close.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 31,004, 39.93% of day's volume, with a $0.7337 VWAP. For the volume, I guess the count is reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is high and the VWAP is above the day's $0.7327, suggesting either some shorters or MMs doing covering buys or some retail folks that liked the PR and are bullish were adding to their long positions.
As before, the very high buy percentage yesterday led to a weak buy percentage today, with an overshoot, as things try to return to around normal. Buy percentage and VWAP acted in concert today, which is consistent with normal behavior. Considering the intra-day open high and sink all day long, there's no surprise here. Well, there is one - the lowest VWAP period had the smallest part of day's volume. I expect buy percentage will improve a bit tomorrow and that the MMs, who likely saw attractive covering prices for their naked shorts, are likely short-term long and tomorrow likely will hold price up a bit during the early part of the day.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
13:58 41273 $0.7217 $0.7596 $30,445.17 $0.7377 53.15% 25.78% Incl 09:42 $0.7596 5,095 11:04 $0.7315 6,000
13:34 $0.7311 4,999
15:52 25749 $0.7250 $0.7399 $18,739.39 $0.7278 33.16% 20.66% Incl 14:12 $0.7250 10,000 15:27 $0.7301 4,910
16:00 8984 $0.7200 $0.7300 $6,505.84 $0.7242 11.57% 21.33%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
That open movement reflected what the MMs could do when the folks that took a day to react to yesterday's PR finally arrived (I guess). Of course, the rest of the day really shows just how tepid the market sentiment is because we can't even get two of my "three-day window" pops to behave somewhat normally. This suggests that near-term behavior going forward will be, as usual now, totally controlled by the MMs and/or shorters sans any retail bullishness.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 6.99% 2.71% 0.08% -1.71% -55.56%
Prior -2.41% 0.14% 2.58% 4.63% 73.15%
On my minimal chart, our range today was just below the descending consolidation triangle's resistance (descending red line). Range was well above the triangle base and the rising medium-term potential support (orange line).
The weakness indicated by a high open and lower close, and the intra-day behavior, is not supported by the volume, which was both extremely low and declining. The bad part of that is that prices are easily moved by those with the desire and means (e.g. MMs, shorters) so that if someone wants, e.g., better covering prices, relatively little money has to be deployed, in the form of shorts or distribution, to move price lower where large profits can then be locked in.
The fast and slow EMS continue to weaken and the fast EMA is still below the slow, although by a slightly small margin, $0.0167.
Most of the day's range was above the declining mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band.
In aggregate, we did get some of what has been hoped for, and called for during the prior several days - a continuation of the leg-up that began two days ago. It wasn't a big continuation though and as we approach the descending resistance we should expect at least hesitation if not outright reversal to a leg lower. This "hesitation" should continue the low volume, although slightly higher volume would be no surprise if shorters decide covering buys look attractive.
On my one-year chart, with the apparent help of the PR, it looked yesterday like the pull up and away from the long-term descending support (former resistance) line began. If we can just at least remain flat the odds become greater that if later we do sag we will not get back to that line as other support points may come into play.
The 200-day SMA continued falling. I had mentioned a few days back that the 50-day should shortly begin a rise, predicated on the end of price decline. Well, two days back we still had price decline but it was so small that the 50-day SMA was almost flat, moving lower only 11/100ths of a penny from the prior day. The decline yesterday was only 1/100th of a penny. I noted that with any positive move we should get our first cross to rising.
Today the 50-day SMA began to rise. If we hold here we'll get 1 day of continued rise before declining 9 days and then rising 5 days. I don't expect us to remain static and with my recent view in mind of an up-leg beginning I think it will be just a few days and we'll have a more consistent rise appear.
The 10-day and 20-day SMAs continued declining. The 10-day held steady at 1.9 cents below the 20-day. As mentioned yesterday, unless the price leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely, it will take longer to get the 10-day back above the 20. Yesterday was a good start, but we need something sustained for a while.
If we hold here we'll get 4 (was 1 rising) day of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 14 (was 1 rising) days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will rise 1 day (was 3) and then begin a series of "waves" of declines and rises. Of course, we won't just "hold here". The 200-day would fall ~153 (was ~153) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), full stochastic (still oversold), and ADX-related.
Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (entered oversold), and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), and full stochastic (exited oversold).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6937 and $0.7774 ($0.6914 and $0.7903 yesterday), converged for the second day. The mid-point is falling. Trade range was a small bit above that mid-point.
All in, the mixed signals of the oscillators, suggesting weakness, unsupported by volume, suggesting no strength to the downside, mixed in with the OLHC improvements, but for the close, and the buy percentage overshot being less severe, and on lower volume, than the prior drop from excessive highs, leaves me thinking that near-term downside is limited and unlikely. More likely is consolidation and/or the continuation of the up-leg we've been working on.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, especially good in light of yesterday's excessive buy percentage. The short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage is less deeply into "no upside possible" territory than the last time we came off an excessive buy percentage. It's still too low to suggest anything positive and does suggest near-term weakness.
The spread contracted again to be just above what I consider suggests consolidation. It was produced by a fairly constant long, extremely low/no-volume decline throughout the day, after the initial low/high early action, that set the day's low at the close. The contraction, which would be a positive, is offset by the intra-day behavior, decidedly negative.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 12 negatives and 12 positives for the second consecutive day. Change since 02/07 is $0.0178, 2.50%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1388%, 0.0588%, -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, and 0.2341%.
All in, I just can't find enough agreement with the short percentage improvement to see any near-term strong positives here. I do find several things suggesting near-term weakness - how the spread was produced, the low buy percentage and the VWAP weakening. Volume being down ~55.6% adds to the negative view, in one respect, but provides optimism in the other. The volume does not suggest strength in the down move.
Bill
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