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Thursday, March 16, 2017 12:34:22 AM
If anybody wants to do this themselves / check my work I am using this template: http://investexcel.net/altman-z-score/
Here is what I got for Q3:
Using what we know from Q4 and the rest gets this, though it will vary slightly once the 10-K comes out:
Q4 stays about the same as Q3 because operating income, while still negative, was less negative. But deterioration in assets still occurs.
And if we assume that Q1 is just like Q4 (the company already implied it would be weak), which is what I did when I made my "on the path to bankruptcy" statement, we get something similar to this:
Basically it was bad shape as of Q3, but still above average for companies that end up going bankrupt. But if it does not change course then that Z score rapidly deteriorates.
One could also question the $10M of goodwill on their books and whether or not that will be written down.
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