Ocera Therapeutics fka OCRX

[longx]

given the large percentage of share prices increased (+84% yesterday and +71% today) and the record trading volume (a total nearly 80 mil shares traded in 2 days), I really hope you guys recognize the significance of the released data in the conference yesterday:

The 2 key information from the presentation which can help us to come up with a reasonable estimation for OCRX valuation:
- OCR-002 is more effective and FDA should look into having Rifaximin to be replaced with OCR-002 (on slices #25, #26 and #27).
- Rifaximin 2016 revenue was $932M (on slide #5)

So once OCR-002 is replacing Rifaximin, let's take a very conservative figure of revenue for OCR-002 = 2/3 of Rifaximin actual revenue or = $932M * 2/3 = $621M

According to CSI market, the price to sales (TTM) ratio in the last 4 quarters for Biotech & Drugs industry are: 1.7 (low) and 4.69 (high)
(detailed info can be found via this link )

With $621M revenue, a reasonable OCRX marketcap should be in the range: $621M x 1.7 and $621M x 4.69 or between: $1055M and $2912M
And given the existing number of outstanding shares = 23M shares,
OCRX share price should be range: $46 -> $126/share, once FDA approve OCR-002 replacing Rifaximin.

I'm in for long-term and will keep my shares for at least a year.