I didn't see any news in today's information that was not clear prior to today.
If anything, there seemed to be more specificity on their marketing, and they were more clear that they are competing for market share within just a 20% subset of all IV-surgeries.
I bought a bit more at 3.94, and I'm down 11.5% on the investment at the current price.
This is a case where I just don't understand the bear case under $5.....I wonder if some people who didn't sell after the trial data were waiting for the CC to see if they could see a clearer pathway for the set of hopes they had.
I'm not looking at this as a biotech, in the same context that I own other biotechs. This is a revenue growth issue, and where revenue starts in 2H 2018 and the company needs to raise capital before then....which could come from sale of overseas rights; outright sell of the entire business; a secondary/ATM.
I just think it's ultra painful on those days when the sellers overwhelm buyers and buyers feel like fools no matter what price they pay.
To my view, this is a cheap price to pay for a certain-drug that has a niche position in the market, and along the way massive numbers of shares have to change hands from those who were betting on a big-gain biotech.
Those who sold at $3.5 didn't expect to have to sell for so little -- they were waiting when we were at 3.7 and 3.8 to get a higher price -- so there's no match calculus here...just the raw fear of getting out before it gets worse.
I look at today as a continuum of what started when the Ph3 data was released -- most shareholders who were waiting for a multiple-gain are just stuck in something that's not at all what they thought they were investing in. Other than the anxiety of dilution and general market weakness, at some price point the sellers have to be gone, because there's relatively little that's unknown here....the other trial data; cash burn; whether the company self-sells or licenses. Beyond this it's revenue growth/market share story, but with the first revenue pushed off until mid-2018. This isn't a minor issue, but the company just seems so darn cheap to me.
I have no idea where this is going to bottom -- it felt like it would never stop collapsing, and I wasn't looking to sell....if I were looking to sell and the price was in freefall, I would be in absolute pain and would just guess at a sell price and flee.
Anyway that's my view right now and maybe the bottom is $2.5...maybe this is going to get worse and worse. Recovering 20% from here won't be surprising either and then I won't feel like a fool --the market just seems unmoored with no one happy....those who want to sell angry at themselves for waiting, and anyone...and I mean anyone who bought any shares post-Ph3 data -- is sitting on a loss and feeling irked with themselves.
At no point today did I feel like I wanted to sell -- I just didn't get what new information the market picked out..and was triggering the mob exodus...and sellers can only sell a share once and then they're gone, so it's a bottoming process.
