Vericel Corp. (VCEL)

[commoncentsinvestor]

Personally I do not believe the 4th quarter report for Vericel has much long term meaning. So any gain or loss based strictly on 4th quarter numbers will probably be short lived.

You would think that because they were expecting MACI approval around the beginning of January 2017, that some Carticel surgeries might have been put off until then. But I don't know if that is so. Anyway, I read the conference call from the 3rd quarter and was pleased to see that Colangelo was pretty confident that 2016 Revenues would beat 2015 by at least 10%.

In 2015 they did $51M so adding 10% would bring 2016 to $56M.
For the first 3 quarters the total revenues were around $38M. So to hit their expectation, 4th Quarter Revenues would have to be about $18M.

That would be a great number as far as I am concerned. Especially since the analysts estimates are for $16M.

But, it is also expected that expenses for the 4th quarter would probably be high as they were ramping up for the MACI launch. So they might fall below the analysts EPS of .18.

So, it is very difficult to predict what the actual numbers might be and also what the reaction to the numbers might be. Personally, I have decided to just hold all my shares through earnings because it doesn't make sense to take any action. It is the long term prospects that make VCEL a compelling investment.