Friday, March 03, 2017 9:18:04 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/02 2017 EOD
Big news out of today is that the 50-day SMA, if we hold here or above, will stop declining and begin to rise. Since it's at $0.7503 it would soon become a potential rising support since we closed above it today.
Maybe bigger news is that I read everything below as suggesting ... No, not consolidation with a mild negative bias (as has been my case for quite a while), but a move up to test the $0.83 resistance to see what will happen.
Today's intra-day behavior was abnormal - opened low and did almost nothing but rise through about 12:45, somewhat similar to yesterday's behavior, followed by a long, slow sag to around the middle of the days range, a less severe than normal decline, and a close around that middle of the day's range. This behavior, even though there were a lot of extremely low/no-volume periods, is much less suggestive of bearishness than in the recent past.
Moreover, blatant manipulative behavior seemed absent today. I sure wish I believed that condition could hold.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:1K $0.7201/$0.75.
09:30-11:37 opened the day with a 2,506 buy for $0.75 & $0.75 x 17. B/a just after open was 1.2K:2.5K $0.73/5. Then came 9:34's 950 $0.7475 (850)/$0.73, 9:35's b/a 1.3K:2.5K $0.73/5, 9:49's b/a 2.5K:2.5K $0.73/5, 9:56's 275 $0.73, 10:03's b/a 7.1K:2.7K $0.73/5, 10:06's 5.8K $0.7489/$0.73/$0.75/$0.73/$0.75/$0.74, 10:07's b/a 1.5K:2.8K $0.73/5, 10:13's 330 $0.7311/$0.75. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7401/$0.75. B/a at 10:17 was 1.5K:2.6K $0.73/5, 10:31 700:2.9K $0.7401/$0.75, 10:58 3K:2K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:02 3K:1.8K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:17 1.3K:1.9K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:31 3.3K:2K $0.7404/$0.75. The period ended on 11:37's 100 $0.75.
11:38-12:15 began a high-volume rise through 11:45 doing 11:38's $0.75/$0.7476/$0.75/$0.7499/$0.75, 11:41's 155 $0.7506, 11:42's 15K $0.7599/$0.7501/2, 11:44's 14.3K $0.7598/$0.7599/$0.7508/6, 11:45's 12.3K $0.7508/$0.7640/$0.7508. The climb continued on very low/no-volume. B/a at 11:47 was b/a 400:1.5K $0.7601/40, 12:01 700:1.2K $0.7600/40. 12:03's 4.1K hit $0.7640/89. 12:11's 1.8K hit $0.775. B/a at 12:12 was 552:400 $0.7701/$0.7898. 12:12's 501 hit $0.7792/$0.7897. The period ended when 12:15's 9.9K hit $0.7701/$0.798.
12:16-13:06, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7850/$0.7992 on 12:17's 150 $0.796. B/a at 12:17 was 452:400 $0.7701/$0.7960, 12:31 400:300 $0.7850/$0.7992, 12:47 500:300 $0.7850/$0.7993. 12:51's 2.5K $0.7898/81 moved range to $0.7997/$0.8046. B/a at 13:01 was 800:2.1K $0.7999/$0.80. The period ended on 13:06's 800 $0.7999->$0.7950.
13:07-15:19, after 6 no-trades minutes, did a drop on 13:12's 5.7K $0.7925->$0.785 and 13:16's 400 $0.785->$0.7701 to begin extremely low/no-volume $0.7711/$0.7896, with slowly falling highs. B/a at 13:18 was 200:300 $0.7701/48, 13:32 2K:406 $0.7710/$0.79, 13:47 300:800 $0.7800/99. Volume was interrupted by 14:01's 3.5K $0.7717/$0.79. B/a at 14:04 was 500:256 $0.7711/$0.79, 14:16 200:606 $0.7711/$0.79, 14:32 400:600 $0.7800/99, 14:47 400:2.5K $0.7800/98. Volume was interrupted by 14:53's 11.6K $0.771/$0.7889. B/a at 15:01 was 100:2.2K $0.7711/$0.7870, 15:16 100:2.4K $0.7711/$0.7870. The period ended on 15:19's 375 $0.787.
15:20-15:49, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7602/89, with falling highs, on 15:21's 1.6K $0.7719/17/11/10, 15:22's 2.6K $0.7710/00/55 and 15:23's 649 $0.7601/04/00. B/a at 15:24 was 500:200 $0.7600/24, 15:33 200:1.8K $0.7600/68, 15:46 300:500 $0.7600/48. The period ended on 15:49's 2.9K $0.7601.
15:50-15:59 began low/medium-volume EOD volatility on 15:52's 1.7K $0.76/$0.7518/$0.7601/00. 15:53-:58 did $0.75/6 with falling highs and ended the period and day on 15:59's 3.7K $0.7500/90/$0.76/$0.75/$0.77/$0.7690 setting the close to $0.7690 because there was no MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 60,517, 28.93% of day's volume, with a $0.7731 VWAP. The count and percentage are both reasonable for the volume today, unlike several previous days. The VWAP is slightly above the day's VWAP of $0.7728, but the difference is so small we should consider them equivalent. The good thing, I think, about this is that ~3/4 of the rest of the trading was right around the same price level, suggesting that the larger trades were not an aberration, i.e. a manipulated result to service MM "good customers", and I think is a reasonably bullish short-term indicator. The only possible negative I perceive is that they all came after the [i[west coasties would normally arrive, suggesting the bullish sentiment might be more regional in nature than we would like.
However, I will not be surprised to see the short percentage (see below) rise as we know from the prior short interest report that shorters had become more aggressive as the share price rose during that last two weeks of January period.If they continue to be so aggressive our top could be capped.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { Today closed above the long-term descending resistance (red line) and if we close above tomorrow we again have a confirmed break out, according to traditional TA. But do note the very low volume and that we've tried to push up and away several times recently but not been able to hold the gain. I had mentioned a couple days back that the rising support, lower orange line was likely to offer support and it did so the prior two days when it was tested. I said I thought this might prevent a return to test $0.66. So far so good. }.
Today we confirmed a breakout by closing above that line (descending red line) and on rising volume, suggesting strength in the move. Out next test of resistance will come at ~$0.83, the low of $11/25/2016 and I point that demonstrated, albeit not necessarily strong, several times in the recent past. Regardless of that, the rising medium-term support, the rising orange line, came through like a pro and suggests that for the near-term we can count on it for continued support, taking a re-test of $0.66 off the table.
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continues rising but is still below, but barely, the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). We get a bullish indication when it crosses above and holds. Yesterday I noted it might be dependent on that minimal new line, not yet assessed for potential strength by past tests. Looks like it was nothing to worry about.
Our trade range, which for several days had been completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, today completely filled the range. With the lower limit rising slightly faster than the upper limit declines, we should see a small benefit from the slightly rising mid-point. It may not result in rising price, but does suggest less likelihood of substantial down-side.
The long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart, which was still applying pressure, was penetrated today. Price closed above it.
With rising volume on an up day we have a fairly strong bullish suggestion.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA and the 10-day continued to decline and is still above the 20-day. The spread loosened a bit more and the 10-day is not as likely to quickly get below the 20. If we hold here we'll get 2 (was 7) days of declining 10-day SMA, a flat day, two declining days and then 4 rising. The 20-day would have 1 (was 3) day of decline and eight days of rise. If we hold here the 50 would decline 1 (was 7) day and then begin to rise for 26 days!. The 200-day would fall ~150 (was ~175) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), and full stochastic (exited oversold). Weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Only MFI was above neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution and MFI (untrusted by me) and improvement in RSI, momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7193 and $0.8143 ($0.7171 and $0.8136 yesterday), continued converging. The mid-point is marginally rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.
All in, all of the above are the most bullish I can recall seeing for a very long time. This encourages me to say that we will go on to test the $0.83 potential resistance.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good. Today is good though in thast the short percentage dropped from a very high level to just a high level. It's still above my desired range but not nearly as far above as it was. This could be an effect of more intra/inter-broker trades but with the larger trades' percentage of day's volume in a normal range I think this is less of a factor. That suggests the shorters were less aggressive today and/or may have been doing covering buys as the market appeared to be moving away from them. They would likely return to aggressive shorting when we get much higher near a good potential resistance and the TA starts to show weakening as shorter-term traders begin taking profits.
The spread widened to a very large reading, but was in a strong up move. I think this has now flipped from bearish, the case when in a down trend and it's large, to bullish.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the sixth day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/26 is $0.0438, 6.00%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, and 0.2502%.
All in, everything but the short percentage is suggesting bullishness. The short percentage is suggesting less bearishness, but not suggesting bullishness, so even it is contributing to a more positive suggestion.
Bill
Big news out of today is that the 50-day SMA, if we hold here or above, will stop declining and begin to rise. Since it's at $0.7503 it would soon become a potential rising support since we closed above it today.
Maybe bigger news is that I read everything below as suggesting ... No, not consolidation with a mild negative bias (as has been my case for quite a while), but a move up to test the $0.83 resistance to see what will happen.
Today's intra-day behavior was abnormal - opened low and did almost nothing but rise through about 12:45, somewhat similar to yesterday's behavior, followed by a long, slow sag to around the middle of the days range, a less severe than normal decline, and a close around that middle of the day's range. This behavior, even though there were a lot of extremely low/no-volume periods, is much less suggestive of bearishness than in the recent past.
Moreover, blatant manipulative behavior seemed absent today. I sure wish I believed that condition could hold.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:1K $0.7201/$0.75.
09:30-11:37 opened the day with a 2,506 buy for $0.75 & $0.75 x 17. B/a just after open was 1.2K:2.5K $0.73/5. Then came 9:34's 950 $0.7475 (850)/$0.73, 9:35's b/a 1.3K:2.5K $0.73/5, 9:49's b/a 2.5K:2.5K $0.73/5, 9:56's 275 $0.73, 10:03's b/a 7.1K:2.7K $0.73/5, 10:06's 5.8K $0.7489/$0.73/$0.75/$0.73/$0.75/$0.74, 10:07's b/a 1.5K:2.8K $0.73/5, 10:13's 330 $0.7311/$0.75. That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7401/$0.75. B/a at 10:17 was 1.5K:2.6K $0.73/5, 10:31 700:2.9K $0.7401/$0.75, 10:58 3K:2K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:02 3K:1.8K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:17 1.3K:1.9K $0.7403/$0.75, 11:31 3.3K:2K $0.7404/$0.75. The period ended on 11:37's 100 $0.75.
11:38-12:15 began a high-volume rise through 11:45 doing 11:38's $0.75/$0.7476/$0.75/$0.7499/$0.75, 11:41's 155 $0.7506, 11:42's 15K $0.7599/$0.7501/2, 11:44's 14.3K $0.7598/$0.7599/$0.7508/6, 11:45's 12.3K $0.7508/$0.7640/$0.7508. The climb continued on very low/no-volume. B/a at 11:47 was b/a 400:1.5K $0.7601/40, 12:01 700:1.2K $0.7600/40. 12:03's 4.1K hit $0.7640/89. 12:11's 1.8K hit $0.775. B/a at 12:12 was 552:400 $0.7701/$0.7898. 12:12's 501 hit $0.7792/$0.7897. The period ended when 12:15's 9.9K hit $0.7701/$0.798.
12:16-13:06, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7850/$0.7992 on 12:17's 150 $0.796. B/a at 12:17 was 452:400 $0.7701/$0.7960, 12:31 400:300 $0.7850/$0.7992, 12:47 500:300 $0.7850/$0.7993. 12:51's 2.5K $0.7898/81 moved range to $0.7997/$0.8046. B/a at 13:01 was 800:2.1K $0.7999/$0.80. The period ended on 13:06's 800 $0.7999->$0.7950.
13:07-15:19, after 6 no-trades minutes, did a drop on 13:12's 5.7K $0.7925->$0.785 and 13:16's 400 $0.785->$0.7701 to begin extremely low/no-volume $0.7711/$0.7896, with slowly falling highs. B/a at 13:18 was 200:300 $0.7701/48, 13:32 2K:406 $0.7710/$0.79, 13:47 300:800 $0.7800/99. Volume was interrupted by 14:01's 3.5K $0.7717/$0.79. B/a at 14:04 was 500:256 $0.7711/$0.79, 14:16 200:606 $0.7711/$0.79, 14:32 400:600 $0.7800/99, 14:47 400:2.5K $0.7800/98. Volume was interrupted by 14:53's 11.6K $0.771/$0.7889. B/a at 15:01 was 100:2.2K $0.7711/$0.7870, 15:16 100:2.4K $0.7711/$0.7870. The period ended on 15:19's 375 $0.787.
15:20-15:49, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7602/89, with falling highs, on 15:21's 1.6K $0.7719/17/11/10, 15:22's 2.6K $0.7710/00/55 and 15:23's 649 $0.7601/04/00. B/a at 15:24 was 500:200 $0.7600/24, 15:33 200:1.8K $0.7600/68, 15:46 300:500 $0.7600/48. The period ended on 15:49's 2.9K $0.7601.
15:50-15:59 began low/medium-volume EOD volatility on 15:52's 1.7K $0.76/$0.7518/$0.7601/00. 15:53-:58 did $0.75/6 with falling highs and ended the period and day on 15:59's 3.7K $0.7500/90/$0.76/$0.75/$0.77/$0.7690 setting the close to $0.7690 because there was no MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 60,517, 28.93% of day's volume, with a $0.7731 VWAP. The count and percentage are both reasonable for the volume today, unlike several previous days. The VWAP is slightly above the day's VWAP of $0.7728, but the difference is so small we should consider them equivalent. The good thing, I think, about this is that ~3/4 of the rest of the trading was right around the same price level, suggesting that the larger trades were not an aberration, i.e. a manipulated result to service MM "good customers", and I think is a reasonably bullish short-term indicator. The only possible negative I perceive is that they all came after the [i[west coasties would normally arrive, suggesting the bullish sentiment might be more regional in nature than we would like.
The buy percentage held up really well today, as did the VWAP during the various periods. Since yesterday's buy percentage suggested some more near-term upside was available, it's good to see some follow-through, and on rising volume too!Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
11:37 15645 $0.7300 $0.7500 $11,662.33 $0.7454 7.48% 68.97%
12:15 65963 $0.7476 $0.7992 $50,426.82 $0.7645 31.53% 65.36% Incl 11:42 0.7599 4,600 8,200
11:44 0.7598 8,200 11:45 0.7600 10,000
13:06 56049 $0.7795 $0.8100 $44,593.77 $0.7956 26.79% 67.29% Incl 12:38 4,000 0.7916 12:39 0.7900
12:40 0.7864 4,100 12:47 0.8000 7,000
15:19 29856 $0.7701 $0.7925 $23,278.95 $0.7797 14.27% 63.03% Incl 13:12 0.7925 5,000
15:49 16778 $0.7600 $0.7755 $12,818.60 $0.7640 8.02% 61.30%
15:59 21980 $0.7500 $0.7700 $16,632.77 $0.7567 10.51% 58.56% Incl 15:54 0.7600 5,417
However, I will not be surprised to see the short percentage (see below) rise as we know from the prior short interest report that shorters had become more aggressive as the share price rose during that last two weeks of January period.If they continue to be so aggressive our top could be capped.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today even the low can be considered bullish since the movement was so small as to be considered flat. So that would give us two consecutive days of one flat and the rest of the metrics improved. Note the volume movement, which suggests strength in the positive indications today.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.13% -0.12% 6.58% 2.51% 57.23%
Prior 1.24% 2.58% 0.00% 3.48% -22.66%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { Today closed above the long-term descending resistance (red line) and if we close above tomorrow we again have a confirmed break out, according to traditional TA. But do note the very low volume and that we've tried to push up and away several times recently but not been able to hold the gain. I had mentioned a couple days back that the rising support, lower orange line was likely to offer support and it did so the prior two days when it was tested. I said I thought this might prevent a return to test $0.66. So far so good. }.
Today we confirmed a breakout by closing above that line (descending red line) and on rising volume, suggesting strength in the move. Out next test of resistance will come at ~$0.83, the low of $11/25/2016 and I point that demonstrated, albeit not necessarily strong, several times in the recent past. Regardless of that, the rising medium-term support, the rising orange line, came through like a pro and suggests that for the near-term we can count on it for continued support, taking a re-test of $0.66 off the table.
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continues rising but is still below, but barely, the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). We get a bullish indication when it crosses above and holds. Yesterday I noted it might be dependent on that minimal new line, not yet assessed for potential strength by past tests. Looks like it was nothing to worry about.
Our trade range, which for several days had been completely below the mid-point of the experimental 13-period Bollinger band, today completely filled the range. With the lower limit rising slightly faster than the upper limit declines, we should see a small benefit from the slightly rising mid-point. It may not result in rising price, but does suggest less likelihood of substantial down-side.
The long-term descending resistance from my one-year chart, which was still applying pressure, was penetrated today. Price closed above it.
With rising volume on an up day we have a fairly strong bullish suggestion.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA and the 10-day continued to decline and is still above the 20-day. The spread loosened a bit more and the 10-day is not as likely to quickly get below the 20. If we hold here we'll get 2 (was 7) days of declining 10-day SMA, a flat day, two declining days and then 4 rising. The 20-day would have 1 (was 3) day of decline and eight days of rise. If we hold here the 50 would decline 1 (was 7) day and then begin to rise for 26 days!. The 200-day would fall ~150 (was ~175) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R (exited oversold), and full stochastic (exited oversold). Weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Only MFI was above neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution and MFI (untrusted by me) and improvement in RSI, momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7193 and $0.8143 ($0.7171 and $0.8136 yesterday), continued converging. The mid-point is marginally rising as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit declines.
All in, all of the above are the most bullish I can recall seeing for a very long time. This encourages me to say that we will go on to test the $0.83 potential resistance.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good. Today is good though in thast the short percentage dropped from a very high level to just a high level. It's still above my desired range but not nearly as far above as it was. This could be an effect of more intra/inter-broker trades but with the larger trades' percentage of day's volume in a normal range I think this is less of a factor. That suggests the shorters were less aggressive today and/or may have been doing covering buys as the market appeared to be moving away from them. They would likely return to aggressive shorting when we get much higher near a good potential resistance and the TA starts to show weakening as shorter-term traders begin taking profits.
The spread widened to a very large reading, but was in a strong up move. I think this has now flipped from bearish, the case when in a down trend and it's large, to bullish.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the sixth day at 12 negative and 12 positive. Change since 01/26 is $0.0438, 6.00%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, 0.4031%, 0.3941%, 0.2967%, 0.4694%, 0.3371%, and 0.2502%.
All in, everything but the short percentage is suggesting bullishness. The short percentage is suggesting less bearishness, but not suggesting bullishness, so even it is contributing to a more positive suggestion.
Bill
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