Hi, zzatt!
My point was that almost all biotechs have long odds against successful and high dollar commercialization. Anyone familiar with biotech knows this, except maybe newer investors or those who look at their investments through rose-colored glasses. And, you CANNOT predict in advance which ones will be big money makers for investors and which will not. Of course, these are truisms/ platitudes.
As for ADXS specifically...
First, the Lm delivery platform is one that is NOT being broadly pursued by immunotherapy developers. Viral platforms are the ones seen by 95%+ of the immunotherapy researchers as the "right way" to go (ZIOP is pursuing Sleeping Beauty and a few others are pursuing other non-viral/ non-bacterial vectors). ADXS's Lm is, therefore, obviously considered a low-probability approach or many others would be pursuing similar approaches. Few are. That tells me something about likelihood of success.
Second, despite our good Ph2 results, many therapies fail in Ph3.
Third, the immuno-oncology development space is HUGELY crowded and the odds are good some other therapy (hard to say which one(s)) will come along in a timely way and make ADXS's Axal uncompetitive based on therapeutic impact.
Fourth, just look at ADXS's market cap versus potential of their product (Axal for cervical cancer if successful). Even with an aggressive time-cost of money, it looks like "the market" does not believe Axal (or the Lm platform) will see the light of day. If the market thought the chances for success were even 25%, ADXS's market cap would be $1B+.
Bottom line, as with any biotech investment, you do your due diligence, apply your best insights into what differentiates the losers from the winners despite what "the market" thinks, bet against the market, and hope to win big.
That's what I'm doing with ADXS, betting they will be successful. I think their Lm platform has the potential, low side effects, low cost to be one of the winners. I can't lay out all the evidence for these assertions in a single iHub posting. If you can find them, I recommend the YMB posts by Justice&Equality in 2014 and 2015 and the science/ business posts by FBG, James Salmon, and a few others here at iHub.
Hope that helps.
