Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[Meishairwin]

Traderbx, you say, "Just SELLAS alone is going to give ADXS $358 million with future milestone payments... and ADXS marketcap ks like $360 million"

That's not true. SELLAS will pay ADXS that amount if certain milestones are reached. There's no guarantee those milestones will be reached. So, anyone valuing ADXS based on the SELLAS agreement would discount that $358M quite dramatically based on the likelihood those milestones will be achieved.

Whether we like it or not, clear-eyed analysts know the odds of ADXS being successful are probably 5-1 or 10-1 against. After all, if what you say were even close to being true, ADXS's therapies are worth probably $10B+ if they work, but the company is worth ~$250M (after taking out cash). So, the market is saying that the odds against them working is something like 40 to 1 against (ignoring the time-value of money).

So, let's not get all excited about the SELLAS deal. It's useful: provides some validation. It maybe provide revenue... but not for a while (at least a year for the pre-clinical work I wuld guess).