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>>> Don’t get intimidated by the ‘crash callers’ in the stock market
By Avi Gilburt

* February 27, 2017

According to Elliott Wave technical analysis, we’re now in the strongest phase of the rally

We’ve all heard the “crash callers” — loud and clear — in the past year.

But those who have thought the stock market would plummet imminently have been terribly misunderstood. We all think they have been calling for the market to go down in their crash scenarios. In reality, they have truly nailed this market, as we have certainly “crashed up.”

You see, the market was not “about to top” in the past year. And we’re not in the midst of a “blow-off” top, as many believe. This is simply what we Elliotticians call a third-wave rally, the strongest segment of a rally’s phase. And, despite the continued top-calling, which will likely become quite loud once we see a pullback into the spring, it will only set up another 200-point rally to follow, as you can see from my attached daily chart of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.10%

After striking our ideal short-term topping region noted last weekend, we are likely in a short-term pullback/consolidation posture. And, as has been the case for months now, should the market provide us some “red days,” I am quite certain many will be again calling for the end of civilization as we know it. However, this pullback is just what we would expect within the pattern we have been following to much higher levels, and not the end of the world.

Last weekend, I presented you with my expectation for one more rally toward the 2,370 region in the S&P 500, and we came within a few points of our target. (It is at that level today.) That means we now turn to a potential test of the support region noted on our 60-minute chart in the 2,320-2,330 region. And as long as that region holds as support, I am looking for a rally to take us into March, toward the 2,400-2,440 region.

So while we should ideally drop lower in the coming week to test our micro support, the only issue I have with this “ideal” expectation is that the market has been terribly stingy with pullbacks, as most have been shallow. If this one has developed in the same manner, then we may already be on our way to the 2,400 level. But based on the standard patterns we follow, I would rather see more weakness in the coming week before we begin that rally.

Lastly, I want to repeat something from last week:

I want to prepare you for the expected market calls you will certainly hear within the next month or two about the market hitting a major top. You will likely hear it over the next few months, and then again in the early fall, after we complete our next rally phase. But my expectation is that we will not likely see a major top to this market until the end of 2017 or early 2018, after which time we can experience a 15% to 25% correction. Until then, I expect we will attain our target set out years ago in the 2,537-2,611 region. (Although I still maintain a smaller probability at this time that we could see a blow-off rally taking us as high as 2,800 by early next year).







http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-get-intimidated-by-the-crash-callers-in-the-stock-market-2017-02-27

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