Tuesday, February 28, 2017 6:01:48 AM
TRVN's trials used healthy patients, which would tend to minimize showing the relative advantages of Olinvo vs morphine. Let's put CARA aside for a moment: I'm wondering if the entire share meltdown hullabaloo is how big is the respiratory -sensitive market size in surgeries.
Perhaps that's obvious to anyone invested -- but the motivation of my posting on this forum is for the purpose of drawing in commentators who know more than me and are able to cooperatively work to developing an improved investor thesis/awareness. There are a lot of stocks in the world, and I want to invest the right amount into this particular risk, whether it's nothing or a material level of my portfolio.
Back to the question of whether the entire share meltdown hullaboo is relating simply to Olinvo now being sidelined to use for respiratory-sensitive patients, and if I assume for a moment that CARA's pipeline isn't intended to compete with this...
....We just don't know how big the respiratory-sensitive population is, and not even "experts" know....that's because the size of the market isn't just patients who show high respiratory issues. Rather, it's the size of the population where the the anesthesiologist has any concern about this.
That's a fuzzy number. Where Detroit, on SA, might look at the population size showing explicit respiratory symptoms, and see that as the size of the market, that's clearly not how the anesthesiologist is looking at this.
One brother of mine is overweight. I need to lose a lot of pounds, but let's use my brother who is overweight. I don't think of him as having respiratory issues. If he were put in a physically stressful situation, and his body was cut open, I would start to feel a little worried about this. If the hospital said "we're giving him morphine and we'll be monitoring him constantly," I would feel just fine about this -- i.e. the present standard care of morphine.
But, if there's an alternative world where the anesthesiologist can wave a wand and limit the respiratory risk, how cool is that for hospital staff; for my brother's own well being; and the floating anxiety that occurs with anyone in a hospital.
The son of a different brother is scheduled for surgery this afternoon -- at a world famous hospital that does more of these surgeries than literally any hospital. My brother, a primary care physician is traveling the few hundred miles to be there -- that's expected. One of his concerns -- one of his really big concerns -- is that horrible things just happen in hospitals. It's not a safe place, and pathogens, staff distraction and miscommunication happen every minute of every day.
In real settings...in real life use...the anesthesiologist is making a medical and situational judgement as to whether it's worth a minimal extra cost to reduce at least one area of concern.
Where I think Detroit and the most skeptical in the market err is in leaving out of the market share equation the risk-limitation and staff-stress limitation that anesthesiologists will choose in they have a tool to do this.
While in the moment of hearing trial data news that's disappointing, a big portion of the investor market is underwhelmed and even stressed from the market crowd sentiment expressing panic via a collapsing share price, I think it will become clearer as the company moves to FDA filing, and developing it's marketing efforts that the size of the market is based on anesthesiologist strategy, and not patient medical history -- and these are very different sized markets.
--------------
...Which is why the CARA issue looms for me. It's trials were against placebo, whereas Olnivo was against morphine...this makes me wonder if CARA is focusing on a market category that sounds identical to me to Olinvo, but is not identical.
Perhaps someone wants to weigh in, and I will get around to calling the company to see if they'll explain this.
......because, if CARA is not a threat to the use case of Olinvo, at least in the setting last week's trial results were targeted to, then the share price of TRVN is clearly undervalued.
Recent TRVN News
- Form SC 13G - Statement of Beneficial Ownership by Certain Investors • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/19/2024 08:09:55 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/17/2024 10:36:47 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/17/2024 10:31:27 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/30/2024 11:05:21 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2024 08:06:19 PM
- Trevena Announces Reverse Stock Split • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 08/08/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2024 11:15:35 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/08/2024 11:05:39 AM
- Trevena Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results and Provides Business Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 08/08/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/08/2024 01:16:34 PM
- Trevena Announces $2M Non-Dilutive Financing Tranche and Reduction in Outstanding Liabilities in Connection with Existing ex-US Royalty Financing • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 07/08/2024 01:15:00 PM
- Trevena Announces Preclinical TRV045 Data Providing Insight Into Novel Mechanism of Analgesic Effect in Chronic Neuropathic Pain Model and Demonstrating Statistically Significant Anti-Seizure Activity in Epilepsy Models • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/20/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/18/2024 08:43:33 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/17/2024 09:06:02 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/14/2024 09:40:45 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/14/2024 09:40:11 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/14/2024 09:39:12 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/14/2024 09:38:37 PM
- Form DEFR14A - Revised definitive proxy soliciting materials • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/17/2024 08:05:39 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/15/2024 11:15:40 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/15/2024 11:05:42 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/06/2024 10:00:24 PM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/20/2024 09:06:01 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 07:34:30 PM
- Form PRE 14A - Other preliminary proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/09/2024 09:05:33 PM
VHAI - Vocodia Partners with Leading Political Super PACs to Revolutionize Fundraising Efforts • VHAI • Sep 19, 2024 11:48 AM
Dear Cashmere Group Holding Co. AKA Swifty Global Signs Binding Letter of Intent to be Acquired by Signing Day Sports • DRCR • Sep 19, 2024 10:26 AM
HealthLynked Launches Virtual Urgent Care Through Partnership with Lyric Health. • HLYK • Sep 19, 2024 8:00 AM
Element79 Gold Corp. Appoints Kevin Arias as Advisor to the Board of Directors, Strengthening Strategic Leadership • ELMGF • Sep 18, 2024 10:29 AM
Mawson Finland Limited Further Expands the Known Mineralized Zones at Rajapalot: Palokas step-out drills 7 metres @ 9.1 g/t gold & 706 ppm cobalt • MFL • Sep 17, 2024 9:02 AM
PickleJar Announces Integration With OptCulture to Deliver Holistic Fan Experiences at Venue Point of Sale • PKLE • Sep 17, 2024 8:00 AM