I increased my position about 20% in the early market day. From what I can guess based on more reading, market share seems as though it will be somewhat, or materially, higher than a $4 share price suggests, if I ignore for the moment the likelihood of summer dilution and the near existential risk possibly posed by CARA.
As I've listened to the post-data CC more, it seems clearer that management was not particularly well prepared. I think they genuinely didn't know how the data would fall. This added to shareholder anxiety, and analysts' questions were less incisive the more often I listened to them.
A key point made by management, and little pursued by the analysts on the call, is that Olinvo can be dosed with more flexibility than morphine. Even though the smaller doses are less effective than morphine, the flexibility afforded by smaller doses with the advantage of fewer side effects is a useful tool.
A lot of patients will be close-enough to the line where the clinical advantages of Olinvo relative to morphine matter. Bears seem to feel that hospitals will use morphine in these close-call cases and simply monitor the patients, but hospitals are too disorganized. Too many staff on a byzantine array of schedules.If a problem can be paid to go away for $100, that's less than the staff + liability distraction costs.
The 4th CC is probably in two weeks -- almost certainly within two weeks. At that time, I think management will be more organized in what they want to present, and analysts may as well.
I might also write the company an email or call regarding what is by far my most pressing concern: The existential risk possibly posed by CARA. While management may not feel it's their place to address the comparative clinical issues between two experimental drugs (the company's and CARA's,) it will at least be clarifying to understand from the company if they are each pursuing the same market. From what I can tell, they are.
....and if they are, excellent CARA data could make it hard for the company to generate market share; find larger BP partners; license globally.
CARA has jumped since the TRVN data -- up 12%, far exceeding the improvement in IBB. This suggests there is some relationship. From what I recall from when I owned CARA, the FDA earlier put a hold on their trial and required CARA to only use the lower dosing, and CARA felt confident that even at the lower dosing it would get the job done. However, these may have different uses in the surgical process vs Olinvo, which is why this issue looms as the only one that matters to me, at this point.
