Hello All--
Back from the land of pyramids, Tut, and NH. A bit more on that later in a small ot note. But while there, decided not to watch any of my stocks as did not want any distractions, both positive or negative to affect my time. Looking here, glad I didn't...but in perspective, when I left it was hovering about .14, and now, two and a half weeks later, down about a penny-penny and a half. The chart itself looks like a crash, but really, slow drop. Didn't miss much. Read many of the back posts, and here's a quick opinion:
The three major things hurting ELTP the most right now are:
1. Uncertainty. This applies both to the fate of SOx, and possible lack of funding to carry through with the testing/application/acceptance of the new bead formulation. LPC means massive dilution, and NH is not going there, but our revenues beyond break-even to run the company for R&D are thin. The bright side is the company is not about to go bk, but it's path forward unclear.
2. Opportunity cost. Whatever happens, good or bad, is going to be in the future--including re-application and subsequent time for FDA re-evaluation/decision. Many who think ELTP will prevail, still see it happening optimistically in a matter of months, less optimistically, by the end of the year. Barring a surprise announcement, other investments are around to put the money to work during that time, so becomes more attractive to some who don't want to lose out (assuming they find a winning investment).
3. Discouragement. L/T holders are simply losing patience with continued delays.
IMO, it is time to put to bed the NH statement "nothing can stop us now" as he said it once, years ago, and the only place it has been constantly repeated, over and over, is here on the board...by both longs when it was in play, and negative posters hoping to discredit NH. The statement by NH was made once, not directed as a challenge to the FDA, and thus no real impact on the CRL. My strong guess is NH regrets saying it and has not said so since. This whole line needs to be put to rest already.
Obviously, as I personally am averaged in the .20's as of now, am not "happy" but in no hurry and can wait. Too many potential catalysts for this to be profitable, although the concept right now of "dollarland" is hyperbole until SOx development. Generic deals, approvals (and longer term revenues from them), for the present would make me really happy to be in.30 land in the intermediate future. SunGuard is an interesting wild card, as is a potential buyout, poison pill or not, at this level...though no prediction of "how much" from me. I do think those who hold for a year or more will see higher levels, and do not see .02 as a realistic bottom. IMO we are close to a bottom now, just slightly lower range than the .14 we were holding, but the stock is not set to collapse. All of course is JMHO...if I were right about everything, I would have sold pre-CRL, or post CRL, and bought back at lower levels, so am not a grand prognosticator, just one man with one opinion.
A bit OT on Egypt (not on the Mid-East as a whole), nor trying to be "political." Being of a faith (though not "religious") not so favored by some of the Islamic community, the Muslims I encountered treated me with nothing but the utmost respect (aside from rude souvenir hustlers). The people there were very kind to Americans, and contrary to my own pre-conceived beliefs, felt 100% safe at all the places I visited. They understand well that we, like them, are not the same as our government...people are people. What really sucked was going on a "group tour" out of fear...many of the Americans I was with were uglier than most who I met. Yes, absolutely no doubt there are very "bad guys," and in this crazy world careful vetting (but not banning) of immigrants from certain regions is an absolute necessity; I would be more scared living in Chicago than Cairo (which is a dump). But, it is a huge mistake to generalize the actions of the extremist minority to the majority of most; all of whom are doing their best, like the rest of us, simply to get by. Dump the stereotyping, and unplug the TV and think beyond the news. Stop living in fear. From others and from a stock.
Off my soapbox, and back to the sidelines. Still long, and patient. I wish GLTA--
Maz
