Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: NASH market /bull and bear cases

The snippet you posted is a rudimentary outline of the bull case. The bear case for the NASH market is that patients won't have symptoms that drive them to seek medical attention until their disease is at a very late stage, so the penetration of the "addressable market" will be rather small.

I'm reserving judgment on how big the NASH market will be until:

• There are meaningful clinical data on combination regimens. (As one can tell from my recent posts on this board, I'm skeptical of ICPT's Ocaliva as a monotherapy, from both a regulatory and scientific standpoint.)

• There is sufficient progress in imaging technologies to enable NAFLD/NASH drugs to be prescribed without conducting liver biopsies.