It's true that there are a lot of institutions in the literal sense that show up on the 13F filings.
The only ones that I --just personally -- feel validate a micro cap are biotech hedge funds and VC biotechs. The smart institutional money in the stock was/is exceedingly low. CARA has a bit more smart money including one VC who has been a huge open market buyer, but CARA too seems to be on the lower end...Index institutional and diversified funds seem meaningless (to me.)
CARA seems to have a much bigger market potential and I was an investor in that but sold as it ran pretty high.
CARA has one trial showing data very soon, but the key trial is mid-year, and that's the one I'm nervous about relative to TRVN-- that's my deadline for doing my due diligence. It's possible that these only sound competitive and may not be.
Hopefully TRVN has a CC for 4th Q where some of the market dynamics can be explored by the analysts. Though, I'm doubtful as the company doesn't seem to stay regular with CC's, perhaps because there's not much news to update until we had data.
On the CC last week it wasn't raised, so perhaps CARA and TRVN do not overlap....if that's the case, the degree of share price collapse seems even less likely to hold.
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The more I think about the CC last week and the market collapse, it seems a bit weird to me that the data/market size was only viewed as US-domestic issue, whereas the pivotal US trial has derisked the trial/entry into non-US markets which are cumulatively worth more than the US market.
When my father went into surgery, the anesthesiologist was rightfully nervous, and was uncomfortable and a compound which gave the anesthesiologist a bit more flexibility would perhaps have been a useful tool in that surgery. Just from a clinical advance point of view, it seems to make sense for the compound to start the process towards trials/approval in the EU and Japan.
Licensing firms, such as pharmastandard that sell to the Baltic countries, could license and sell simply based on FDA approval...safer surgeries is a clear commercial and medical value, even at a smaller market size....with all of these variables, the share collapse doesn't make sense to me yet...I'm sure there's some piece of the heavy bear case I'm missing.
Detroit at SA makes the point of lowered usage because of the trial data -- he put it at a 2% share, and someone who sells TRVN at $3.5 is probably seeing about that range of market adoption.
