PPHM, what about tomorrow?
We have seen a consistent climb of the PPHM PPS over a period of about 10 days. The stock moved from 0.28/0.30 where it was hanging around side-ways to 0.55$, which is an 100% up movement. In the process it touched 0.66$.
The volume comes from around 1Mil shares daily and Friday has hit 27+Mil shares, after it consistently saw growing volume in the past days and has closed above 2,3 and 5 mil shares past week.
From cheynew's FINRA intraday reports we have seen that the naked shorting was largely reduced. We'll need to see if that remains this way. What we need to monitor here is if the naked shorting is %-wise lower because it gets more absorbed in the EXTRA volume that we see. This EXTRA volume was clearly long (or we wouldn't have moved up on it) BUT does NOT allow us to conclude that the LID is removed. For now it looks like it was but we need to keep an eye on this. Thanks to cheynew for enabling us to do this here on the board without needed to browse FINRA raw data.
The short interest reports remain low. FYI 2.5Mil shares is about 1%. We are floating around 1% (and often below 0.5%) since more then a year now. That is very good.
On the option front the number of PUTS are almost nonexistent all the time. Compared to that the calls do good BUT, frankly, the amounts we are talking about are meaningless. If however we keep increasing 500/1000 call contracts a day (that is 50000-100000K common shares equivalent), then we are building option interest and momentum. We are at the start of that and combined with the other observation we could have a follow-up on this.
PPHMP is also holding its 20+$ price point. That is about 2.40$ per common. That is strong, it went all the way down to 8.x$, or 1$ per common. It probably never went below that because of the value of Avid that was at that time certainly worth 1$. However since July we are mainly above 20$ and the PPHMP volume has also taken up these last days. One needs however to understand that the liquidity on PPHMP is low and the price point can be moved with a few shares. Yet, players mostly stay away from it and it therefor gives a better market view of the PPHM value in terms of pure emergency selloff of asset (selling Avid, IP, pipeline - assuming ZERO potential). These shares are preferred and would be bought back first.
This PPHM PPS movement started with the announcement of the exosome proof of concept. Is there a relation? It is hard to say. Some will say yes, my intuitions says maybe not as we think. I think that many of us will agree that in the past we have got other news that has not resulted in the expected up-move, yet all bad news has always immediately resulted in a PPS set-back. Based on that, and while this remains SPECULATION, I'dd say that the exosome news didn't do more then maybe 5 cent in all this. I would be more in to say that this news opens a door behind the curtain that we don't know about or that we do not understand. As examples:
A) It could be that we thing that the exosome test is binary (cancer/no cancer) but not specific and that others with more data or deeper understanding know it is not but allows to identify the type of cancer in the process and that this proof of concept is what they were waiting for. Not showing there hand in immediately jumping on the PR.
B) It could be that a binary test, with benign or not and stage indication (which we have all 3 in this test) is a bigger event then we think. However, PPHM's poor PR work gives of-course an appreciation related to the one cancer they tested in the proof of concept that they made public with vague comments about testing this on OTHER cancers. No word on cancer identification possibilities, no words on the other cancers and where there advantage is (in other words, everyone can imagine that for intestinal cancers a scan by simple blood test is great, but maybe for breast a simple examinations is way cheaper and faster then a blood test).
C) Maybe the value isn't as expressed as we expect. Dr. Brekken is the one i believed that several times emphasised that no centrifugal activity would be needed with this test. Why is that so important to mention? People in labs know how centrifugal activities can be bottle-necks. Of course big labs could line up a few hundred of them, and probably do, but still Santa doesn't hand them out for free and 1 minute is as well 1 minute in a lab. And these things eat energy (it are actually rotating electric motors). PPHM's test doesn't need all that.
D) As a last example of what could be the reasons that 'some entity(ies)' know or believe to know something that makes the PPS go up could be a partnership. CEO King said that is the path they will go with Exosomes and that they will not do it alone. Maybe the market is just anticipating this based on the proof of concept which was not just statistical significant but also scored 100% accuracy. You cannot do better then 100%, can you? So the market may think, or through channels that we do not have KNOW, that talks are going on. The last Q/CC where management didn't even mention exosomes (while we know from our peer-reviewed publication - and mentioned dates in it - that PPHM must have had the results way back in 2016) there must have been a reason for that. They also short-cutted some analysts. Could that have been analyst who's firms fell of the boat and Thomas Yip was just working for the firm that now controls this movement in context of something bigger?
A word of warning. We have seen big PPS jumps in the past with PPHM. Some even on 15/20mil shares. And they cam back down almost as quickly as they got up. Could be a sceme to make people buy options, could be placed in the context of a obligation to full fill a certain minimal amount of buy activity in a silent acquisition or big position build-up (as W. Buffet has done several times in the past to not increase the share price by anticipation of him buying in), etc.
We can only say that this was not a sudden jump or 3 day up and down, and what is more importantly as explained above, did not come on its own as just a Common PPHM shares peak.
Based on that one could positively speculate for tomorrow. However, we are currently over-sold some on the daily BMI, and while we started closing above the 200MA on daily bars recently we have to go back to end 2015 for that, a moment were the expectations on SUNRISE we different then after FEB 2016.
I am a firm believer in that a PPS of a stock can not keeping to go up without from time to time give market making opportunities. So that means that, if we take a look at the charts, we are going to have to make that 50MA touch and bounce. The 50MA is above the 200MA on most bar time-frames but not on the daily. If we are driven by the 50MA on 30min bars, Clay uses that one, then we just did the touching of the 50MA and are ready to climb again tomorrow. If 60Min bars then the PPS could meat the 50MA somewhere at or above 0.48$. On the 30min Parabolic SAR we just broke through the line and turned to touch it again.
So, what to expect. HIGHLY SPECULATIVE INFORMATION...Personally I expect a correction on the BMI that could bring us to 0.50+ depending on the liquidity available. Then I think that we may continue our way further up if this movement is realy supported by something concrete. Watching the H1 2012 charts were, with hindsight, we know what good news followed it, we also see that the move to about sub 3$ was not straight up but had those fall-backs in it, but in the end went to 5+$ when the news came that our CRO in Fargo switched doses in the clinical trial and we didn't know at that time the switch was in the disadvantage of Bavituximab and that therefor the results were even better then announced on the Chicago conference. The current charts are kind of SUGGESTING (which is NOT A CERTAINTY but an EXPECTATION) that we might be in such movement on other news.
At the time, we know now from PACER, it was AbbVie that was about to sign before the FARGO incident, today we have no clue. But one thing is for sure PPHM is not going to dot his with a partner that cannot support this exosome test (if it is about exosomes because that is also an ASSUMPTION on my behalve) world wide. And that partner, if this test has the value we think it might have even if only binary in nature, will make pre-payment and mile-stone arrangements that will force PPHM to speed things up or to let the partner drive it. In that context, and time-to-market, Avid is a golden asset.
So tomorrow I expect:
DIP DOWN->BACK UP
OR
SOME MORE UP->DIP-DOWN->BACK UP
The above is MY OPINION, not a certainty. It is based on that at some point we need a small platform or retraction to better climb.
