Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Peter82Denmark]

A valid concern, and my primary concern as well.

Some thoughts :) :

So on one hand we have the FnF cash flow, at this point 10B $, that could fund some of Trumps promises. Although, do we know where those 10B actually go? Could Trump actually spend them if he wanted to?
We have congress who wants to let the banks in on the action, and we have some forces in Ts personally chosen staff that might see things differently than Mnuchin et. al.
The strength of this "force" is unknown, though.

On the other hand, there is Mnuchin whom I believe wants to free the GSEs, at least that's what he's been hinting at the last months on several occasions.
We have the change of wording in the earnings reports (although there is a relatively high risk that it means nothing).
Furthermore, I can't help but think about what Mnuchin said the 19th of January at the hearing, that he thought the GSEs were very important institutions, and that he wanted to work towards a bi-partisan solution. Now, I have no clue if or how many democratic senators/congressmen who would favor freeing FnF, but a letter like this makes me believe that are at least some:
https://www.scribd.com/document/339615295/House-members-letter-to-Mel-Watt-about-Blackstone-deal
Dated February 15, 2017.
Not only that but he also said at the hearing:
"Regulation is killing community banks," Mnuchin said before stating he would relieve regulatory burdens on these small lenders so "we don't end up in a world where we have four big banks in this country."
Again, I'm taking him at his words, and that may be a choice I'll come to regret, but his focus on the small banks seems quite relevant. So when the small banks post something like they just did which basically stated that FnF should be released, I think that Mnuchin will at least pay attention to that statement.
Last but not least, we have the hedgefunds (and their lawsuits). Regarding which side they are on, that's easy: they're on their own side, whichever that is. But if they wanted to drive the stocks up in order to sell them before any concrete decision was made, it would have made sense to have done so when Mnuchin drove the price up 30% in November, though, right? Why wait further if they didn't expect a bigger payout than 4-5 dollars a share? I'm pretty confident it won't get any higher than that until a choice is made and then it's 10+ for commons and near par for preferred or zero for both.

To sum it all up I guess the money (for the government and the TBTF banks) are against us.
On our side is the truth and what's best for the average US citizen in general, but does Mnuchin have the integrity and willpower to act on that? I've been searching vigourously for a tangible dollar benefit to the government should they release FnF and the only one I can come up with is diluting the commons with the gov's 80%. Doing that could persuade Trump to agree on release, IMO, because then he'd have a whole lot more of cash for that wall, perhaps not this year but the next or the one after that.


The Joker is the hedgefunds and the lawsuits IMO.

I'm probably missing some (= a lot of) factors that need to be put into the equation (please share your thoughts about that!), but for now I'm keeping my shares.

I do have a feeling that next week will be pivotal somehow, then again I've had that feeling the last two weeks, lol.