Synaptogenix Inc (SNPX)

[InTheTrenches]

blu:

There are so many moving parts here, I think it's difficult to answer your question:

- Trial results: mild improvement? or significant improvement in > 50% of patients? Durable improvements?

- Long-term safety: if there are long-term safety issues, this will directly affect which AD population Bryostatin is prescribed for. Only for severe AD (low bar)? or also include mild-to-moderate (significantly increases patients treated and revenue)?

- Treatment duration: a lifetime of regular treatment, one-time treatment cycle, or 2-3 cycles of treatment per year? (I'm thinking the latter)

- COGS: how much it costs to synthesize in large quantities is an unknown.

- Are there other diseases (Fragile X, etc) that Bryostatin is effective in that bring in further revenue?

- Reimbursement: how will the insurance landscape change over the next few years, considering the drug pricing rhetoric among politicians?

- If results are positive and we aren't bought out, it's likely we will need a partner, which means our revs are no more than 30% (that's generous).

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My near-term expectations: In April if Bryostatin shows real improvement (signs of disease reversal) and no significant safety signals, conservatively gain 4-10x.

Long-term: If Bryostatin is SOC and widely prescribed by physicians in only moderate-to-severe disease cycling on and off for the rest of the patients' lives, improving cognition in > 50% of patients, without a Pharma partner, our market cap should conservatively be several billion.