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Re: tmorr55 post# 10384

Saturday, 02/11/2017 3:32:19 PM

Saturday, February 11, 2017 3:32:19 PM

Post# of 18980
31, 32, 33%.... coal and natgas switching back and forth amongst those numbers. EIA reported this week that coal would take over natgas easily if the price of NatGas went up too much (I quoted here sometime this week...). NatGas production will remain in the 70-71-72 Bcf daily for the foreseeable future. The hurdle for NatGas is transportation. Look at the futures curve. March-April 2018 price drops, corresponds to a new pipeline coming into service.

The key (besides weather) is exports. Sabine Pass is exporting 2.1BCF/d now, trains 3&4 supposed to be in service earlier than expected and Mexico buying about 4Bcf/d. That makes the difference! And that's why this winter NatGas is 1$ more than last year, even though winter is 16% warmer HDD (Heating degree day) basis.

And that's why I'm gonna be loading up on NatGas producers/transporters when I feel NatGas hits bottom, sometime in March.

All the best!