Saturday, February 11, 2017 1:23:35 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/09 2017 EOD
Both the conventional and unconventional stuff are suggesting much less near-term negative bias today. They aren't yet suggesting a strong near-term bullish bias, but they may be headed that way.
The FY17 Q3 PR and SEC 10-Q were released today before the conference call. The AH trades sure weren't like the "old days" before DJ got the market all disillusioned they were anemic in volume and the rise compared to the long-ago past behavior. Regardless, at least the AH action wasn't a big negative response.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just prior to open was 300:75 $0.6999/$0.73 (offers backed by presented 500 $0.76).
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 1,200 sell for $0.7020 & $0.7020 x 12, x 15. Then came 9:30's b/a 1.9K:75 $0.7020/$0.73 (offers backed by presented 400 $0.74), 9:38's b/a 1.6K:75 $0.7050/$0.73 (offers backed by presented 400 $0.74), 9:42's 200 $0.7350, 9:43's b/a 1.6K:400 $0.7070/$0.74, 9:44's 100 $0.74, 9:46's 164 $0.7280, 9:47's b/a 250:200 $0.72/$0.7399, 9:49's 1.3K $0.7370 (1K)/$0.7200/68, 9:51's b/a 150:200 $0.72/$0.7399, 9:57's 100 $0.7397, 9:59's b/a 100:300 $0.7210/$0.7399, 9:59's 100 $0.7390, 10:02's b/a 500:300 $0.7268/$0.7399, 10:02's6.5K $0.7385/$0.7210/$0.7387/90/97/77/79/86/$0.7210, 10:03's 2.7K $0.7298/30/50/25/18/25, 10:04's 200 $0.7250, 10:06's b/a 400:200 $0.7210/$0.7399. The period ended on 10:07's 1.3K $0.7256/99.
10:08-10:57 began extremely low/no-volume $0.715/$0.7299 after a very low/no-volume short drop, followed by a recovery. It all began with 10:09's 7.2K $0.7256/50/10/07/00/$0.7110. B/a at 10:12 was 300:700 $0.7148/$0.72582s. 10:14's 1K $0.7184/48/$0.7025/$0.7148/$0.7026 completed the drop. The recovery completed in the next minute on 10:15's 800 $0.7095 (200)/$0.7149/$0.7370. B/a at 10:17 was 400:500 $0.7150/$0.74, 10:33 305:600 $0.7150/$0.7299, 10:50 239:700 $0.7150/$0.7290. The period ended on 10:57's 1K $0.7287.
10:58-11:35 began extremely low/no-volume $0.71/$0.7209 on 11:00's 2.2K $0.7150/10/00/$0.7050/44/65/99/50, 11:01's 1.4K $0.7050/61/60, and 11:02's 915 $0.7058/45/61. B/a at 11:02 was 200:100 $0.7026/58, 11:17 5:300 $0.7150/$0.7210 (bids backed by presented 200 $0.71). Volume was interrupted by 11:29's 2.1K $0.7142/34/57/49/$0.7210/09/02/01. B/a at 11:32 was 2.7K:300 $0.7200/10. Volume was interrupted by 11:33's 27K $0.72. The period ended on 11:35's 747 $0.7112/15.
11:36-12:52, after eight no-trades minutes, began mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.7129/$0.7358 (but only on the big-volume minutes, the rest were ~$0.725) on 11:44's 1.5K $0.7120/$0.7270/22/$0.7340/58/50 ... B/a at 11:37 was 1.4K:100 $0.7104/20, 11:47 474:200 $0.7250, 12:02 100:300 $0.7109/$0.7250, 12:17 100:300 $0.7109/$0.7250. Volume was interrupted by 12:21's 2.7K $0.7250/99/$0.7340/49/$0.7190/13. B/a at 12:32 was 700:300 $0.7204/50. Volume was interrupted by 12:36's 21.4K $0.7154/$0.7201/$0.7250/36/$0.7301/00 (~17K incl 14.5K blk)/$0.7295/68/63. B/a at 12:43 was 100:700 $0.7202/$0.7360. The period ended on 12:52's 325 $0.7299.
12:53-13:57 began a very low/no-volume slow climb, with lows rising first, on 12:53's 3.8K $0.7214/$0.73. B/a at 13:02 was 100:400 $0.7236/$0.73. 13:18's 150 hit $0.735. B/a at 13:34 was 100:800 $0.7248/$0.7350, 13:48 100:800 $0.7248/$0.7350. 13:51's 3.5K hit $0.7350/$0.74/$0.7350/75/$0.7450, and the period ended on 13:53-:57's ~33.3K $0.73/$0.7402.
13:58-14:38 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/98, with rising lows and falling highs, on 14:07's 100 $0.7352. B/a at 14:04 was 200:500 $0.7300/98, 14:17 600:7398 $0.7330/98. Volume and price were interrupted by 14:31's 16.7K $0.7251/$0.7398. B/a at 14:33 was 47:400 $0.72/$0.7398 (bids backed by presented 1.4K $0.7103). The period ended on 14:38's 200 $0.7357/99.
14:39-14:45 began a very high-volume (~40.3K 14:39-:44) shoot up on 14:39's 7.5K $0.7357/$0.7449. B/a at 14:43 was 2.9K:500 $0.7406/$0.75. 14:44's 5.7K hit $0.7408/$0.76. The period ended on 14:45's 100 $0.7596.
14:46-15:19 began very low/no-volume (through 15:10) $0.7408/$0.7540, with rising lows, on 14:46's 200 $0.7408. B/a at 14:52 was 300:1.6K $0.74/$0.7550, 15:02 400:1.6K $0.7410/$0.7550, 15:17 100:1.5K $0.7450/$0.7500. The period ended on 15:19's 100 $0.7469.
15:20-15:59 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.7499, with rapidly falling highs, after 15:20-:21's ~8.4K $0.7484/07/$0.7398/07/08/64/98/64/98/99. B/a at 15:25 was 600:1.1K $0.7300/98, 15:32 600:1.1K $0.7300/89, 15:47 500:1K $0.7300/70 (bids rattling 00/01). Volume moved to low/medium-volume beginning at 15:48. B/a at 15:56 was 1.8K:300 $0.7356/$0.74. The period and day ended on 15:59's 5.6K $0.7400/$0.7380/81/80 and the last 15:59 $0.7380 was the official close because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were 12 AH trades: $0.76 x 500 x 2, $0.77 x 214, $0.7355 x 150, x 700, $0.7354 x 364, x 4K, $0.75 x 2.3K, x 7.7K, x 20K, x 25K, x 4K.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 151,769, 44.11% of day's volume, with a $0.7414 VWAP. The VWAP is again below the day's $0.7374 VWAP. Unlike yesterday though, quite a lot of the larger trades occurred when the VWAP was at the higher levels.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, while discussing the possible break back below the descending support (upper orange line), I said { ... it looks like price is going to meet those expectations as today we penetrated and closed below that descending support (upper orange line). The volume was lower today, suggesting the down-draft is losing some strength, but it's still high enough that I strongly suspect we will trade (mostly?) below the line and confirm a break below the support by closing below regardless of the AH 1-share $0.82. That descending orange line would then become resistance. }
It didn't happen. We did do some trading below the descending support, but we came back above it and closed above it. Since it was on rising volume we would think there was some strength in the move, albeit the volume increase was not all that much. So maybe it's not really suggesting strength.
The fast EMA continues below the slow EMA for the fourth day.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the falling begun three days ago while the 10-day returned to slightly increasing. If we hold here we'll get again 4 more days of rising 10-day SMA (was 9 falling). The 20-day would have 2 (was 5) days of decline, eight days of rise and a return to descending. If we hold here the 50 would decline all but nine (was three) days, and the 200-day would again fall ~194 (unchanged) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in every oscillator. MFI (untrusted by me) was the only one above neutral. All others were below and Williams %R and full stochastic were oversold, for the second and third day respectively.
Today had weakening only in momentum and had improvement in everything else. Only MFI (untrusted by me) was above neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic are still oversold
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6616 and $0.8487 ($0.6461 and $0.8537 yesterday), continue to converge with a rising mid-point. Our trade range was almost completely below the mid-point.
All in, the conventional TA items have begun flipping to positive, especially the oscillators. The 10-day SMA rising, and above the 20-day, is another positive. The biggest negative is that the upward tilt is not yet supported by the momentum oscillator, but the rising volume combined with the other oscillators seem to override that concern.
Adding in the improvement in buy percentage from yesterday makes me think that we at least have a strong suggestion that the move lower is near an end. They haven't hit a level that suggests a likely near-term move higher yet, but they are suggestive of less downward pressure.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but the short percentage dropped back from above my desired range (needs re-check) to just below it, which is good. Further, the buy percentage recovered from an abnormally low level, which suggested no available up-side was likely, to a level still suggesting that, but is really almost in "no man's land", meaning it doesn't suggest either up or down as more likely. That's an improvement.
The spread remains high, in a range suggesting more downside during a down trend, but is not as bad as it looks if we use the "official" high instead of the one set AH. That would be $0.76, high down -7.32% instead of -6.10%, and spread would be 8.26% instead of 9.69%. That's still too high to suggest consolidation as most likely, but it is a weaker indication of more downside.
Worse, yesterday's spread, showing 17.14% when the AH $0.82 high is used, was really 5.67% when the official $0.7397 is used. That means today's spread using official numbers widened substantially.
Offsetting the spread's negatives is the fact that it was produced without the common open high and drop. Rather, it was open low and then have a couple rises, along with the usual flats, during the day. This suggests, along with the improved short and buy percentages, there's more bullish sentiment exhibited in the intra-day action that produced the spread.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held for the second day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 01/05 is -$0.0351, -4.55%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, and 0.1740%.
All in, I have to go with a more positive near-term outlook suggested by this unconventional stuff. I can't say a near-term rise seems more likely, but it does look like the downward pressure is ending.
Bill
Both the conventional and unconventional stuff are suggesting much less near-term negative bias today. They aren't yet suggesting a strong near-term bullish bias, but they may be headed that way.
The FY17 Q3 PR and SEC 10-Q were released today before the conference call. The AH trades sure weren't like the "old days" before DJ got the market all disillusioned they were anemic in volume and the rise compared to the long-ago past behavior. Regardless, at least the AH action wasn't a big negative response.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just prior to open was 300:75 $0.6999/$0.73 (offers backed by presented 500 $0.76).
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 1,200 sell for $0.7020 & $0.7020 x 12, x 15. Then came 9:30's b/a 1.9K:75 $0.7020/$0.73 (offers backed by presented 400 $0.74), 9:38's b/a 1.6K:75 $0.7050/$0.73 (offers backed by presented 400 $0.74), 9:42's 200 $0.7350, 9:43's b/a 1.6K:400 $0.7070/$0.74, 9:44's 100 $0.74, 9:46's 164 $0.7280, 9:47's b/a 250:200 $0.72/$0.7399, 9:49's 1.3K $0.7370 (1K)/$0.7200/68, 9:51's b/a 150:200 $0.72/$0.7399, 9:57's 100 $0.7397, 9:59's b/a 100:300 $0.7210/$0.7399, 9:59's 100 $0.7390, 10:02's b/a 500:300 $0.7268/$0.7399, 10:02's6.5K $0.7385/$0.7210/$0.7387/90/97/77/79/86/$0.7210, 10:03's 2.7K $0.7298/30/50/25/18/25, 10:04's 200 $0.7250, 10:06's b/a 400:200 $0.7210/$0.7399. The period ended on 10:07's 1.3K $0.7256/99.
10:08-10:57 began extremely low/no-volume $0.715/$0.7299 after a very low/no-volume short drop, followed by a recovery. It all began with 10:09's 7.2K $0.7256/50/10/07/00/$0.7110. B/a at 10:12 was 300:700 $0.7148/$0.72582s. 10:14's 1K $0.7184/48/$0.7025/$0.7148/$0.7026 completed the drop. The recovery completed in the next minute on 10:15's 800 $0.7095 (200)/$0.7149/$0.7370. B/a at 10:17 was 400:500 $0.7150/$0.74, 10:33 305:600 $0.7150/$0.7299, 10:50 239:700 $0.7150/$0.7290. The period ended on 10:57's 1K $0.7287.
10:58-11:35 began extremely low/no-volume $0.71/$0.7209 on 11:00's 2.2K $0.7150/10/00/$0.7050/44/65/99/50, 11:01's 1.4K $0.7050/61/60, and 11:02's 915 $0.7058/45/61. B/a at 11:02 was 200:100 $0.7026/58, 11:17 5:300 $0.7150/$0.7210 (bids backed by presented 200 $0.71). Volume was interrupted by 11:29's 2.1K $0.7142/34/57/49/$0.7210/09/02/01. B/a at 11:32 was 2.7K:300 $0.7200/10. Volume was interrupted by 11:33's 27K $0.72. The period ended on 11:35's 747 $0.7112/15.
11:36-12:52, after eight no-trades minutes, began mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.7129/$0.7358 (but only on the big-volume minutes, the rest were ~$0.725) on 11:44's 1.5K $0.7120/$0.7270/22/$0.7340/58/50 ... B/a at 11:37 was 1.4K:100 $0.7104/20, 11:47 474:200 $0.7250, 12:02 100:300 $0.7109/$0.7250, 12:17 100:300 $0.7109/$0.7250. Volume was interrupted by 12:21's 2.7K $0.7250/99/$0.7340/49/$0.7190/13. B/a at 12:32 was 700:300 $0.7204/50. Volume was interrupted by 12:36's 21.4K $0.7154/$0.7201/$0.7250/36/$0.7301/00 (~17K incl 14.5K blk)/$0.7295/68/63. B/a at 12:43 was 100:700 $0.7202/$0.7360. The period ended on 12:52's 325 $0.7299.
12:53-13:57 began a very low/no-volume slow climb, with lows rising first, on 12:53's 3.8K $0.7214/$0.73. B/a at 13:02 was 100:400 $0.7236/$0.73. 13:18's 150 hit $0.735. B/a at 13:34 was 100:800 $0.7248/$0.7350, 13:48 100:800 $0.7248/$0.7350. 13:51's 3.5K hit $0.7350/$0.74/$0.7350/75/$0.7450, and the period ended on 13:53-:57's ~33.3K $0.73/$0.7402.
13:58-14:38 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/98, with rising lows and falling highs, on 14:07's 100 $0.7352. B/a at 14:04 was 200:500 $0.7300/98, 14:17 600:7398 $0.7330/98. Volume and price were interrupted by 14:31's 16.7K $0.7251/$0.7398. B/a at 14:33 was 47:400 $0.72/$0.7398 (bids backed by presented 1.4K $0.7103). The period ended on 14:38's 200 $0.7357/99.
14:39-14:45 began a very high-volume (~40.3K 14:39-:44) shoot up on 14:39's 7.5K $0.7357/$0.7449. B/a at 14:43 was 2.9K:500 $0.7406/$0.75. 14:44's 5.7K hit $0.7408/$0.76. The period ended on 14:45's 100 $0.7596.
14:46-15:19 began very low/no-volume (through 15:10) $0.7408/$0.7540, with rising lows, on 14:46's 200 $0.7408. B/a at 14:52 was 300:1.6K $0.74/$0.7550, 15:02 400:1.6K $0.7410/$0.7550, 15:17 100:1.5K $0.7450/$0.7500. The period ended on 15:19's 100 $0.7469.
15:20-15:59 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.7499, with rapidly falling highs, after 15:20-:21's ~8.4K $0.7484/07/$0.7398/07/08/64/98/64/98/99. B/a at 15:25 was 600:1.1K $0.7300/98, 15:32 600:1.1K $0.7300/89, 15:47 500:1K $0.7300/70 (bids rattling 00/01). Volume moved to low/medium-volume beginning at 15:48. B/a at 15:56 was 1.8K:300 $0.7356/$0.74. The period and day ended on 15:59's 5.6K $0.7400/$0.7380/81/80 and the last 15:59 $0.7380 was the official close because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were 12 AH trades: $0.76 x 500 x 2, $0.77 x 214, $0.7355 x 150, x 700, $0.7354 x 364, x 4K, $0.75 x 2.3K, x 7.7K, x 20K, x 25K, x 4K.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 19 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 151,769, 44.11% of day's volume, with a $0.7414 VWAP. The VWAP is again below the day's $0.7374 VWAP. Unlike yesterday though, quite a lot of the larger trades occurred when the VWAP was at the higher levels.
The buy percentage was much improved from yesterday. With it being up ~4.6% from yesterday's I have to suspect the MMs took advantage of the PR to elevate price and take some profits on short-term long positions. If that is the case I expect VWAP will fall tomorrow, sans some unexpected major positive announcement during the CC that restores the market's faith in the future of Capstone.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:07 13764 $0.7020 $0.7400 $10,035.08 $0.7291 4.00% 73.86%
10:57 13803 $0.7025 $0.7375 $9,960.78 $0.7216 4.01% 53.36% Incl 10:09 $0.7207 5,333
11:35 11815 $0.7044 $0.7210 $8,434.12 $0.7138 3.43% 55.02%
12:52 52340 $0.7113 $0.7358 $37,930.97 $0.7247 15.21% 43.20% Incl 11:49 $0.7200 6,000 12:36 $0.7300 14,540
12:37 $0.7200 9,900
13:57 52382 $0.7214 $0.7450 $38,577.35 $0.7365 15.22% 39.77% Incl 13:53 $0.7402 8,423 13:56 $0.7400 4,200
14:38 27250 $0.7251 $0.7399 $20,039.83 $0.7354 7.92% 37.81%
14:45 40217 $0.7357 $0.7600 $29,944.93 $0.7446 11.69% 40.92% Incl 14:39 $0.7400 5,386 14:40 $0.7413 5,000
14:42 $0.7500 4,887 14:43 $0.7409 8,000
14:44 $0.7550 5,000
15:19 25500 $0.7408 $0.7549 $19,106.79 $0.7493 7.41% 43.61% Incl 14:47 $0.7549 4,900 15:13 $0.7451 4,500
15:59 38729 $0.7301 $0.7499 $28,588.97 $0.7382 11.26% 44.77% Incl 15:55 $0.7400 5,000
17:20 65428 $0.7354 $0.7700 $49,009.24 $0.7491 19.01% 36.59% Incl 16:43 $0.7354 4,000 17:18 $0.7500 7,700
17:19 $0.7500 20,000 17:20 25,000 4,000
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
*Similar to 2/7, the $0.82 high was 1 AH $0.82 x 1 trade. The real high was $0.7397, a 0.37% move from 2/7's real high of $0.7370. In spite of the positive spin on the PR, the real high was not able to move, continuing the weakening trend in these metrics. The positive is the rising volume on a higher close, but the lower open and high with the nearly flat low are telling us there's really no apparent bullish sentiment infecting the market participants at this time.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.50% 0.29% -6.10%* 5.13% 29.12%
Prior -3.20% -4.11% 2.50% -1.38% 8.44%
On my minimal chart, while discussing the possible break back below the descending support (upper orange line), I said { ... it looks like price is going to meet those expectations as today we penetrated and closed below that descending support (upper orange line). The volume was lower today, suggesting the down-draft is losing some strength, but it's still high enough that I strongly suspect we will trade (mostly?) below the line and confirm a break below the support by closing below regardless of the AH 1-share $0.82. That descending orange line would then become resistance. }
It didn't happen. We did do some trading below the descending support, but we came back above it and closed above it. Since it was on rising volume we would think there was some strength in the move, albeit the volume increase was not all that much. So maybe it's not really suggesting strength.
The fast EMA continues below the slow EMA for the fourth day.
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA continued the falling begun three days ago while the 10-day returned to slightly increasing. If we hold here we'll get again 4 more days of rising 10-day SMA (was 9 falling). The 20-day would have 2 (was 5) days of decline, eight days of rise and a return to descending. If we hold here the 50 would decline all but nine (was three) days, and the 200-day would again fall ~194 (unchanged) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in every oscillator. MFI (untrusted by me) was the only one above neutral. All others were below and Williams %R and full stochastic were oversold, for the second and third day respectively.
Today had weakening only in momentum and had improvement in everything else. Only MFI (untrusted by me) was above neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic are still oversold
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6616 and $0.8487 ($0.6461 and $0.8537 yesterday), continue to converge with a rising mid-point. Our trade range was almost completely below the mid-point.
All in, the conventional TA items have begun flipping to positive, especially the oscillators. The 10-day SMA rising, and above the 20-day, is another positive. The biggest negative is that the upward tilt is not yet supported by the momentum oscillator, but the rising volume combined with the other oscillators seem to override that concern.
Adding in the improvement in buy percentage from yesterday makes me think that we at least have a strong suggestion that the move lower is near an end. They haven't hit a level that suggests a likely near-term move higher yet, but they are suggestive of less downward pressure.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but the short percentage dropped back from above my desired range (needs re-check) to just below it, which is good. Further, the buy percentage recovered from an abnormally low level, which suggested no available up-side was likely, to a level still suggesting that, but is really almost in "no man's land", meaning it doesn't suggest either up or down as more likely. That's an improvement.
The spread remains high, in a range suggesting more downside during a down trend, but is not as bad as it looks if we use the "official" high instead of the one set AH. That would be $0.76, high down -7.32% instead of -6.10%, and spread would be 8.26% instead of 9.69%. That's still too high to suggest consolidation as most likely, but it is a weaker indication of more downside.
Worse, yesterday's spread, showing 17.14% when the AH $0.82 high is used, was really 5.67% when the official $0.7397 is used. That means today's spread using official numbers widened substantially.
Offsetting the spread's negatives is the fact that it was produced without the common open high and drop. Rather, it was open low and then have a couple rises, along with the usual flats, during the day. This suggests, along with the improved short and buy percentages, there's more bullish sentiment exhibited in the intra-day action that produced the spread.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held for the second day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 01/05 is -$0.0351, -4.55%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, 0.2829%, 0.4414%, 0.4984%, and 0.1740%.
All in, I have to go with a more positive near-term outlook suggested by this unconventional stuff. I can't say a near-term rise seems more likely, but it does look like the downward pressure is ending.
Bill
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