Vericel Corp. (VCEL)

[commoncentsinvestor]

The following is an analysis by Piper Jaffray of the market potential of MACI as compared to Carticel.

"MACI's label includes two improvements over Carticel that expand the applicable patient population. First, MACI was approved to treat any part of the knee, whereas Carticel was limited to repair of the medial, lateral or trochrea femoral condyle. Both tibia and patella sections of the knee are included in MACI's label. Secondly Carticel was only approved for second-line therapy or patients who had inadequate response to prior arthroscopic or cartilage repair procedure. MACI is indicated to repair first-line patients who have not undergone prior surgery, significantly expanding existing patient pool."

In 2016 Vericel will do approximately $36M in Carticel revenue. Between the expanded useages for MACI over Carticel, the more simplistic surgery, the faster patient recovery and the potential for better results, it seems like a doubling or tripling of revenues should be almost a sure thing.

Yet share price right now is almost identical to what it was before MACI became FDA approved. That makes no sense. And when there exists an imbalance between actuality and reality there is usually big money to be made. I think this may be one of those situations and I have continued to accumulate as the share price has declined. For those who have TIME & PATIENCE, this could be one of those rare great stock opportunities.