Intel Corp (INTC)

[Ideal_Inv]

3DXP SSD Revenues Likely to be around $300 million in 2017

BK mentioned the following in my previous extract from the conference call:

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"On an SSD basis, we will start shipping for revenue this quarter. And, if you take a look at the full year, I think the estimate is, it's around 10% of our total revenue is 3D Xpoint.

And that will be -- it could take off and it could be a little more than that. It could take a little while to qualify some things if it's a little off. But you should think it is around 10% of the revenue. And really, ramping much more into 2018."
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So when he says 3D Xpoint would be 10% of the total revenue, I think he means 10% of the total revenue of Non-Volatile Memory Solution Group. [It can't be 10% of the total revenue of the company which would make it $6 billion.]

Given NVM Solution Group revenue (without 3DXP) is at a $800 million run rate per quarter - $3.2 billion per year. With 3D Xpoint SSD, it would be approx $3.5 billion - so 3D Xpoint is expected to result in additional revenues of about $300 million.

Of course, if 3D NAND was the main reason for the 25% growth in Q4 2016 and it continues to grow at that rate or at a higher rate, the numbers for NVM Solution Group and 3DXP are likely to be significantly higher.

This is just some back-of-the-envelope calculations, I haven't thought through this too much or factored in any seasonal variations in this market segment.