Intel Corp (INTC)

[SemiconEng]

Q3/Q4 rally this year?

In 5 of the past 7 years, including 2001 and 2002, INTC rallied during the second half of the year. Given the run-up we've just experienced in the past 4 months, what's the likelihood that we will see a repeat performance in 2003? Price targets for the end of the year?


So, I don't know about Q3, but I've been following this "secret strategy" for the last few years, in which during Q4, I dump my ENTIRE portfolio into intel at the beginning of Q4, and divest it back out at the beginning of the following Q1. I keep an excel spreadsheet of the results, and Here's how it's turned out. Start, is the stock price on Oct1 of each year, and finish is the stock price on Jan1, 3 months later:

Year Start$ Finish$ %Yearly Avg %Running Avg
1998 83.87 118.56 41.4 41.4
1999 74.94 82.31 9.8 25.6
2000 39.94 30.06 -24.7 8.8
2001 21.96 31.45 43.2 17.4
2002 14.05 16.68 18.7 17.7

OK, so the table didn't come out so good, but you can see, that granted, watching your investment increase 41.4% like it did in 1998 is a reason to do a "Happy dance", but on the other hand, watching your investment drop 24.7% like it did in 2000 is enough to give a person a heart attack. Still, since the avg return since 1998 is +17.7 percent, and when you take into account that that return is ONLY during the last 3 months of the year, I'm satisfied with that strategy...... so far, and I plan to do it again this year.

Semi