Friday, January 20, 2017 3:21:54 AM
The first mistake with technicals is that they assume history will always repeat itself. The same patterns are expected to have the same outcome as the previous time; this is not true. Another flaw is that certain “standard” patterns (like head and shoulders, wedges, etc.) might be assumed to hold true for all stocks even if the particular pattern has not been seen for that stock before.
Nor do technicals ever consider the weather!
Technical analysis usually takes decades of practice. Even then, most tech investors will be wrong 70% of the time. Technical analysis does not have a set of infallible rules. Patterns can easily be confusing and conflicting. Stock trading never fits into cookie-cutter patterns.
A technical analyst will typically create his own rules for predicting stock patterns. Often he has too much confidence and ignores evidence that contradicts what he sees.
Technical analysis focuses solely on the short term. It is also detached from the fundamental analysis in that it tends to ignore considerations of a company’s actual profitability and value, Instead, technicals focuses on other investors’ perception of these things. You are following what investors imagine and not the cold hard truth.
It's foolish to think that historical stock prices influence future prices. It is equally stupid to think the pattern of a stock a year ago, will foretell the future movements of the same stock... witchcraft works better.
Furthermore, no system can account for all variables. The biggest risk in technical analysis is that it completely ignores market manipulation, quirks in trading, and the selling out of one or two major share holder for any one of a hundred different reasons. It also ignores sector manipulation, especially in the volatile oil and gas sector.
There are hundreds of reasons for institutions to sell their large position. Sometimes 2-3 institutions may go out at the same time for different reasons.
Moreover, focusing on technicals also can distract investors from the danger signs of a major fundamental change in the economy or the sector, something that may have been a contributing cause of the sell off.
Consider this: if technical analysis were worthy of great credit, investing in stocks would not require any skill nor would it involve any risk. You and I both know that is not true.
Recent CHK News
- CalPERS to Oppose Exxon Mobil Directors; Microsoft Unveils Copilot+ PCs with AI Focus, and More News • IH Market News • 05/21/2024 11:18:35 AM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2024 RESULTS • PR Newswire (US) • 04/30/2024 08:02:00 PM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION PROVIDES 2024 FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION • PR Newswire (US) • 04/17/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/04/2024 09:14:13 PM
- Form S-4 - Registration of securities, business combinations • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/29/2024 10:25:49 PM
- Nvidia’s Earnings Skyrocket by 769%, BuzzFeed’s Pre-Market Shares Surge by 85%, and Other Highlights • IH Market News • 02/22/2024 11:08:52 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/20/2024 09:08:15 PM
- CHESAPEAKE REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL-YEAR 2023 FINANCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS AND ISSUES 2024 OUTLOOK • PR Newswire (US) • 02/20/2024 09:00:00 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 05:34:38 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 05:10:38 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 04:01:49 PM
- Form SC 13G - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 03:04:43 PM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION, DELFIN LNG AND GUNVOR SIGN LONG-TERM LNG LIQUEFACTION OFFTAKE AGREEMENT INDEXED TO JAPAN KOREA MARKER • PR Newswire (US) • 02/13/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/09/2024 11:19:03 PM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION PROVIDES 2023 FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION • PR Newswire (US) • 02/06/2024 11:15:00 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/11/2024 09:58:22 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/11/2024 11:14:46 AM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION AND SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY TO COMBINE TO ACCELERATE AMERICA'S ENERGY REACH • PR Newswire (US) • 01/11/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/02/2024 09:10:13 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 12/01/2023 12:20:18 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/31/2023 08:13:22 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 10/31/2023 08:06:24 PM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2023 RESULTS • PR Newswire (US) • 10/31/2023 08:02:00 PM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION AND VITOL SIGN LONG-TERM LNG SUPPLY HEADS OF AGREEMENT INDEXED TO JAPAN KOREA MARKER • PR Newswire (US) • 10/31/2023 08:01:00 PM
- CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION PROVIDES 2023 THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL INFORMATION • PR Newswire (US) • 10/18/2023 01:00:00 AM
Branded Legacy, Inc. Unveils Collaboration with Celebrity Tattoo Artist Kat Tat for New Tattoo Aftercare Product • BLEG • May 22, 2024 8:30 AM
"Defo's Morning Briefing" Set to Debut for "GreenliteTV" • GRNL • May 21, 2024 2:28 PM
North Bay Resources Announces 50/50 JV at Fran Gold Project, British Columbia; Initiates NI 43-101 Resources Estimate and Bulk Sample • NBRI • May 21, 2024 9:07 AM
Greenlite Ventures Inks Deal to Acquire No Limit Technology • GRNL • May 17, 2024 3:00 PM
Music Licensing, Inc. (OTC: SONG) Subsidiary Pro Music Rights Secures Final Judgment of $114,081.30 USD, Demonstrating Strength of Licensing Agreements • SONGD • May 17, 2024 11:00 AM
VPR Brands (VPRB) Reports First Quarter 2024 Financial Results • VPRB • May 17, 2024 8:04 AM