Extreme bear chatter is a solid contrarian indicator at these levels and sometimes can result in buying activity. The continued fanatical rants could actually be pushing people to research the "current" fiscal health of the company which imo is excellent and leads them to their own conclusion that whatever it is these bears keep going on about is clearly in the past and it's a different company now, one focused on commercial integration growth in a challenging environment.
The company has shown several GAAP net profitable Q's and although last Q was not one of them due to non-cash incentives that had to do with the merger of sunworks, the 4th Q surely will be GAAP net profitable. IMO there is no way it won't be. (Sorry Swiamca- I think the 4th will be much better, not worse than Q3.)
I see three outcomes at this time:
Best Case: The company shows a slight GAAP net profit for the year due to a total blowout of Q4. Somehow they not only crushed Q4, but also completed several projects leftover from Q3 (which was why Q3 rev was so low). EPS skyrockets to the double digits positive territory. Annual revenue is greater than 100 Mil. This would be the 2nd GAAP net profitable year in a row, making this company stand out in the sea of losses. The street takes notice and this starts a very long term (and long overdue) uptrend.
Good Case: The company shows a huge GAAP net profit in Q4, but it's not enough to get the company into the black for the year. This is still great news. The company won't have burned a ton of cash, they will actually increase cash reserves over Q3, even while showing slight net loss for the year, which basically amounts to a break even year. With most of the non-cash incentives behind them, 2017 is set up to be a real king year.
In either of these cases, 2017 is going to be a year to really watch these guys closely. They have the deck stacked so that they can cruise through the year with solid profits regardless of any issues with net metering, residential or regulatory issues. Short of total nuclear annihilation, the company, as well as its shareholders should have a great 2017.
Worst case: The company pulls a Gomer, misses the reduced guidance of 95 mil, and only succeeds to install "milli-teens" worth of solar again. The margins slipped and now we not only look like all the rest of the "losers", but with shrinking revenue for two quarters, it would appear the well has dried up and all the low hanging solar fruit has been plucked. In this scenario there's little hope for the short term.
There is a whole lot of greatness going on within this company. The fact that the PR from within the company has fallen off a cliff, yet the stock price has not, tells me the market likes this valuation...."for now". We recently saw a PR from Sharp about Sunworks, this tells me not only are we doing much better than we think we are, but other companies are noticing Sunworks as well.
Lastly, 10-K should be released early March. We likely won't have to wait that long to get guidance... how that's received and what if any other news accompanies it will be interesting.
Long
