Friday, August 18, 2006 12:49:45 PM
Posted by: dbernet
In reply to: condor1 who wrote msg# 69624 Date:8/12/2006 11:48:15 AM
Post #of 70254
"proven reserves/exploratory well"
These are not one event as you well know. I think you argue for arguement's sake. Block one has an exploratory well. It does not have proven reserves. An exploratory well in any of our blocks may raise the sp to over a buck. Each successful well in any of our blocks will raise the shareprice further. As companies in each block establish and announce proven reserves, a simple calculation at current valuations of 10 to 20 dollars a barrel for proven reserves will move the share price. As posted by Nightdaytrader, the centurion web site shows they think there is between 2.5 and 3.5 Billion barrels in block 4 alone. A single exploratory well will move the share price, but as each additional well in any of blocks 2,3,and 4 will also move the share price. As each announces net pay and estimates reserves the stock will move. Finaly, formal announcements of proven reserves, after multiple exploratory wells, using industry adn investment standards, will certainly move the share price. And there will be such an announcement for each field in each block.
To say, as you are saying, that "proven reserves/exploratory well" will move the share price one time and their will be not further impetus to stock price till we have produced enough oil to pay costs is so far from reality that I suspect your motives. To treat this as a single event in the stock price future is silly. All the above listed events, give or take a few, will take place in each block before "oil is pumping to recoup costs."
I fail to see why you would take such a weak position.
db
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