Biotech Values

[ghmm]

FGEN:

I generally get scared off by a stock being popular. One thing though in past years I recall some of the popular SI charity picks doing well (though not always and I haven't run any sort of analysis) so that alone doesn't scare me off.

While No doubt Roxadustat is the bulk of the current valuation I still really like FG-3019. The pancreatic data should come out in Q1 and then in the summer IPF data.

I am getting more cautious on IPF though as much as anything because Fibrogen is so slow moving it and I'm not sure the substudy in particular will give clear data (its quite a small n and only 6 month with 1 or 2 additional agents one would expect a smaller treatment effect) so I worry they may do yet another P2 if they decide they can't go head to head based on these results. Meanwhile companies are advancing other options. Still If they show stable/reduction in fibrosis I would like to see if they could try going head to head with that as an end point (I believe there is one paper showing a correlation between that and lung function).

The value proposition in IPF is quite large should the P2 results look good that I think it could be a substantial move on that alone.