Thursday, December 29, 2016 7:26:09 PM
Conclusion
In my original article, I ballparked KTOV's valuation at $22.50 per share. That valuation assumed KTOV took KIT-302 to market on its own and therefore, included additional equity financings and a concomitant higher share count on which to base the per share price. It also assumed a weaker marketing capability and therefore, lower peak sales. In this article, I've estimated KTOV's valuation on the idea that it sells KIT-302 to a large pharmaceutical company and I've provided some comparables to ground this valuation. (Nonetheless, there are a lot of assumptions here, particularly the peak sales numbers and the DCF inputs.) The comparable valuation method gives a share price target range of $13 to $29 per share, which corroborates the initial $22.50 per share target. As a result, I continue to hold KTOV as one of my favorite longs, and am hoping for a big payoff within the next four years or so. Indeed, after performing this research, I think it's likely that one of the companies mentioned in the article will buy KTOV sooner rather than later - with Pfizer (Celebrex's developer) being my front-running candidate.
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