Tuesday, December 27, 2016 11:21:25 AM
I am updating my 09/05/2016 estimate for damages to take into account the expected 35 million shares to be issued for the CAFC appeal costs.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=124969183
With update to add 35 million shares issued.
Older damages estimates
I found an older posting at:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=87277552
from Friday, 04/26/13;
which seemed to be as good as anyone could do or come up with at the time.
It looks like it was something before I had started to take part in the conversations on IHub, prior to the summary judgement ruling, and prior to the VRNG vs GOOG decision.
Back then people seemed to think the going forward from filing date to end of 2018 royalties would be at least $142 million.
The case is on contingency, so WDDD gets about 60% of that for $85 million.
Common shares are at 210 million plus another 35 million shares for a total of 245 million shares, and I expect the trial plus appeals to be a decade from the filing in 2012 and expect that the company will need to issue 25 million shares per year, on average to get to the end of the whole thing for another 175 million common shares in total, bringing total common shares count to 420 million common shares.
There is a retained earnings deficit of around $41 million, that may reduce any taxes, or allow WDDD to payout case without it being taxable to shareholders as a 'return of capital' instead of a dividend from profits and taxable, so hopefully only $45 million of the $85 million would be taxed, and leaving the company with $70 million in cash to pay out.
That means that per share cash will be $70 million / 420 million common shares or $0.166/share or somewhere around there if things go this way.
The problem is that any number of things could happen that could 'kill the case' along the way, but if somehow WDDD can get through a trial and appeal process, as long as any one of the patent claims survive all challenges, then ATVI would be liable for damages.
This is why one of the tactics that ATVI is using (and other do, like GOOG in the VRNG case) is that they will keep trying different paths and tactics to 'chip away' at the infringing claims. Every time another claims on the patent gets invalidated or held to not apply, is one less things that can be used against them at trial.
Louis J. Desy Jr.
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