Posted by: federal reserves
In reply to: Bullwinkle who wrote msg# 136323 Date:7/31/2003 7:06:45 PM
Post #of 136340
Bull> I agree. SnP ready to slip big time.
Could be quick, or we could waterfall again. I favor the get it over quick method as it would promote necessary reforms we need. Panic always leads to resolution. I quick drop wouldn't result in massive layoffs like this slow dribble is.
The 30Day EMA is now 987. 1000 is approximately the current neckline in the long term H&S (1000 1998 Asian Panic left) (1500 2000 y2k boom top) (1000 2001/2 Terrorist Recession).
Its ready to tumble to fair value around 500, although realistically, given the bullish basis, 600 will probably be closer to the bottom.
Once the market gets to fair value with a reasonable PE, fair dividend, once we get the forex rates under control to promote a correction in the trade balances, and once we have control of the debt bombs via writeoffs and consolidations, we can talk about a true long term recovery.
