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Friday, December 09, 2016 9:11:37 AM
When new all-time DJIA closing highs dwindle, then it is time to worry
By Almanac Trader
* December 9, 2016
Prior to Dow Jones Industrial Average’s November 10th close it had been just 87 calendar days without a new all-time DJIA high. DJIA’s previous record high close was on August 15, 2016. Historically, this is a relatively brief period of time as DJIA went 3,583 days from January 11, 1973 until November 3, 1982 without a new all-time high. Even that dry spell palls in comparison to the 9,212 day stretch (25+ years) following DJIA’s peak on September 3, 1929. Historically, new all-time highs have been bullish and generally result in additional new highs. When new DJIA record highs begin to arrive less frequently, then it may be time for caution and/or concern. Generally, the longer DJIA goes without a new record high close, the worse its performance has been historically.
For the chart above, we thinned out the 951 previous all-time highs to include just those that came at the end of a streak of new highs based upon the number of calendar days before DJIA reached the next new all-time high close. Three groups were created, 30-, 60- and greater than 90-days till the next new all-time high. In this case the longer DJIA went without a new all-time high, the greater the average loss was.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/154220106758/when-new-all-time-djia-closing-highs-dwindle-then
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Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
By Almanac Trader
* December 9, 2016
Prior to Dow Jones Industrial Average’s November 10th close it had been just 87 calendar days without a new all-time DJIA high. DJIA’s previous record high close was on August 15, 2016. Historically, this is a relatively brief period of time as DJIA went 3,583 days from January 11, 1973 until November 3, 1982 without a new all-time high. Even that dry spell palls in comparison to the 9,212 day stretch (25+ years) following DJIA’s peak on September 3, 1929. Historically, new all-time highs have been bullish and generally result in additional new highs. When new DJIA record highs begin to arrive less frequently, then it may be time for caution and/or concern. Generally, the longer DJIA goes without a new record high close, the worse its performance has been historically.
For the chart above, we thinned out the 951 previous all-time highs to include just those that came at the end of a streak of new highs based upon the number of calendar days before DJIA reached the next new all-time high close. Three groups were created, 30-, 60- and greater than 90-days till the next new all-time high. In this case the longer DJIA went without a new all-time high, the greater the average loss was.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/154220106758/when-new-all-time-djia-closing-highs-dwindle-then
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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