True. Ackman really needs a big win after so many losses over the last 2 years. Trust me, with a large position in VRX myself, I feel some of his pain. But beyond his impetus to settle and use warrants as a bargaining chip, Ackman has a different perspective on a $20 common share settlement estimate. He bought a huge chunk of his shares at market bottom prices in 2008. In fact, he was shorting Fannie stock in the lead in period to conservatorship, according to published reports. He is looking at close to a 1000% gain on a $20 price.
Those holding at prices before conservatorship don't look quite so rosy. Neither do the long term investors that bought shares in 2007 or earlier when Fannie traded in the $60's.
This is where the conservatorship injects another wrinkle in Fanniegate which is that shareholders don't get a vote in any settlement discussions unless they are a named party in all these litigations. You get what you get that is agreed to between government attorneys and plaintiff attorneys.
Sad to say it, but shareholder interests fare best if a court decides to rule in their favor on at least some of their complaints. If not, things go back into the dim light of some proverbial smoke filled room and eventually you get told if you win or lose. The waiting game is agonizing... like watching the Vatican chimney for white or black smoke signals when the cardinals are voting for a new Pope.
JMHO.
