There is WAY too much concern being floated out there in the blogosphere about what privatization might mean for shareholders. It seems like ominous predictions are being articulated by pundits everywhere, replete with all manner of dire consequences....especially involving the sale of warrants. I think this whole thing is being over-thought and, frankly, irrationalized.
Read what Mnuchin actually said about getting the government out of the GSEs. He clearly stated that returning them to private status would be done in a safe way where there was no risk of their being taken over again. There is absolutely nothing ominous in his very clear statements.
Fannie & Freddie will need to raise private capital. That is likely only accomplished via new stock issuance. For new equity to be successfully introduced, the old equity... common and preferred... must be restored to attractive status for investors. This means dividends. This also means common share price becomes important and exercise of warrants, even the threat of that, becomes problematic to raising private capital.
So my point is that getting all lathered up over events that seem unlikely to occur in any kind of game-changing way is unproductive, at best, and possibly idiocy, at worst.
Release in January. Retain formerly swept income in GSEs after Q3/2016 December distribution is paid. Restore dividends in Q2/2017.. Relist on NYSE. Recapitalize with new equity. Reform affordable housing mandates via transfer to Ginnie Mae. Regulate FnF as part of a new Federal super agency merging FHFA, HUD, CFSPA and SEC in a simplified and consistent matrix, leveling the playing field for all competing bodies in all business sectors.
This is where I see things heading. No worries.
JMHO.
